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Baccarat Strategies at the beginning of the Shoe

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Rond1nell1, Nov 30, 2021.

  1. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I loved that you got the word "opine" into the conversation. Kudos. Sincere, not snarky. Remember, I am no longer commenting on baccarat related things.

    Surgery, next week for my hernia. They still haven't figured out how to anesthetize me due to my 1 / 1,000,000 physiology...nor does it seem that I have any pain management options.

    I am truly sorry that I offended anyone in my quest for understanding of my Mother's issues.

    I am also very thankful to all of you for helping me to understand and finally come to terms with my past.

    Peace be with you all...
     
  2. porky

    porky Active Member

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    Hypnosis
     
  3. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    It's a good idea. I'm going to start by counting back from an imaginary number...oh crap, I ended up counting back to reality--and it sucks. :)
     
  4. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    #Wishing you a speedy recovery after the operation.


    ND
     
    Frank Kneeland likes this.
  5. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Thank you Sir. I'm trying to stay positive. The surgeon I'm seeing is a bit taken aback by my black-swan physiology, but he's at least willing to try. That's more than most.
     
  6. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    "The first consists of betting for up to 3 rounds on the first one that appears at the beginning of the shoe.
    If P appears, we follow P. If B appears, we follow B.
    The second is to bet that even in column 3 someone will double.
    Below is an example for both methods in the photo.
    P B P B
    FOR
    For the first method mentioned, you would get it right on the second attempt, P came at the beginning, you would bet on P, lose, Bet again on P and Win."

    The probability of snaring a win is fairly easy to determine.

    No bet the first hand and then bet the same side for 3 hands, stopping when a win is achieved, in reality it really doesn't matter how you determine your bet selection, opposite of the first hand, fixed selection, coin toss!!

    You are placing a maximum of 3 bets, there are 8 possible 3 hand combinations, therefore the odds of losing 3 bets in a row is 0.125, to put it another way, you have a 99.87% of grabbing a win in a 3 hand sequence.

    You could fine tune that further as the Banker is marginally more favourable than the Player, but for all intense and purpose is a waste of time.

    So back to your original post, what and how to bet the opening of a shoe? If you wish to be pedantic about it, then no matter what the first hand is BBB would be the optimal choice.

    However which way you determine how is bet not the important aspect, as you have a 99.87% chance of grabbing a win, you end up with 4 possible scenarios; W, LW, LLW or LLL. It now becomes obvious that your staking plan is the most important aspect, because Baccarat is a money game.

    Marty 1-2-4 then 2-4-8 then 4-8-16 etc until recouped and then step back down, Labby, Fibonacci, 99% of the time mathematically you'll grab your win within 3 hands, then sometimes you'll get LLL, LLL and/or LLW, LLW, LLW (this kills the Labby BTW). The bet selection isn't as significant as the staking plan, something I realised over a decade ago...

    MONEY, MONEY, MONEY, then Bet Selection...
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2022
  7. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    Actually the probability of getting a win is 87.5% instead of 99.87% as it’s 7 out of 8 wins.
     

  8. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    That's right. It's a guessing and betting game. But that doesn't mean you don't need a good bet selection. With bet selection it's all about reducing losses in a row. Without that very deep pockets are needed. Few people including myself don't wish to risk huge amounts for small returns.
     
  9. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    What I did was, divide 8 possible options by 1, as only one option will result in LLL.


    "Few people including myself don't wish to risk huge amounts for small returns."
    Yes, I agree..
     
  10. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    Correct. Meaning 7/8 win = 87.5%. Still better than 50%!!
     

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