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Baccarat THE 50-50 GAME

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by porky, Oct 15, 2021.

  1. porky

    porky Active Member

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    It gets tiring reading the Banker advantage over and over. Some mathematician says its so. So its so. Some guys did research on the shoes they acquire so its so.
    Here is a simple exercise for anyone that wants to settle it for themselves.
    First study the drawing rules.
    Second deal four cards player and banker hands. Don't draw a third or fourth yet.
    Now take a look at the cards and see how many different hands you can make with each.
    For instance if Player gets k9 and Bank gets 47 it could have went 47 to k9 instead. 50-50.
    look at if it was k4 to 97 or reversed either way one side has 6 and the other side draws.
    Pull the next card does it change.

    Your going to see it comes out to 50-50 excluding ties....

    So how does someone hit over 200 shoes where Player dominates. It happens with 50-50 random.
    How does someone hit Banker dominate shoes. Once again its 50-50 without dictating when it will balance out.

    I enjoyed reading a response to a comment I had made on how with the hand shuffled shoes years back that a multiple followed by a multiple would in turn just about always hit a multiple.

    The gentleman stated he could see how I thought that. And if it was true the casino would be broke.

    Well I know this won't change his opinion. But, It hit without a miss when I played for Six months straight. Someone else on one of the boards was having the same thing happen to him and claimed he bought a new car with his funds. I was only betting one black when it was hitting because I am a believer in everything ending sooner than later

    One of the guys on a board that posts here asked if anyone noticed that once a run went past three if it tied it would continue the run. BOOM off to the shoe and he was right. Another black chip play for this low roller. It to has disappeared.

    And in response him from a while back. Yes your right the old hand shuffles favored follow.

    Understand confidence games have been around for a really long time. The commission in Bac is a little more palatable if you believe you have an advantage. It hurts when you win a huge pile of chips to turn most back to the commission. But, we accept it to play the game.

    And by the way if you can figure out a hand that has more Baker wins than Player pleas share its your floor.....
     
  2. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    In someone’s head MATE. Skipptophia.
    I cannot ever really remember for an absolute fact if it was a higher follower on hand shuffle shoes, it a moot point now anyway as now it’s rng or factory boxed or automatic shuffle machines.

    Adapt or perish

    As for the balance of more player or more banker shoes now it’s a moot point also. Here in skipptophia today we may be player heavy but where you are in Vegas or Europe at the same time it will be useless information to you. Can you kirky on over here beam me up Scotty and instantly be here to play our player heavy day ?
    No
    You can not.
    If you are reliant on a heavy side to play your game style you just have to roll with the punches when it’s not going your way.
    THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL one shoe fits all Dorothys
    No one method will always win , you just have to adapt or perish. Today is not working, cut your loss and stop , yesterday was brilliant etc hopefully it means you are still in profit etc. tomorrow may be better yet and you recoup today’s drawdown etc.

    Your post was a good read porky, thanks.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2021
  3. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    It is pretty simple. If you have a significant amount of Baccarat data then just count the Bankers and the Players. You will have more Bankers (unless you just have a tiny amount of data and ran into a few Player dominant shoes). It settles out at 50.7% Bankers and 49.3% Players over time. It is math, not just perception. It is built into the drawing rules.
     
  4. porky

    porky Active Member

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    Fathead.... The drawing rules do not.....Read that again.....Do not affect the overall outcomes for the Bank side.... Instead they almost guarantee it working out to 50-50.
    If you did the exercise I stated you possibly would see that.
    Your stating the same old stats that can just as easily go .7 the other way in favor of Player.
    Please give me four cards that deliver more bank than player results.
    Then tell me what card would be drawn that wouldn't have won if the cards were in a different order.
    YOU CAN'T!
    If you were right you could show more than one. Not quote the same old same old.
     
  5. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Jolly good post!

    I especially like the fact that you included a plausible method of causation for a detectable pattern that can be exploited.

    What has always concerned me about most baccarat systems is that the patterns which naturally arise in a fair and truly random sequence are overvalued as predictors of the future. It's fine to see patterns in a shoe of P or B flip-flops and streaks--but only if that information changes the odds on your NEXT-BET. What you described might well do exactly that. Basically it's a form of shuffle tracking.

    I am reminded of a funny story about pointless pattern detection that comes to us from a change person at the old Frontier hotel. It requires no embellishment to be hilarious.

    Change Girl (CG): That's a hot machine you're playing.
    FK: How do you know that?
    CG: I've seen it hitting all night long!
    FK: I was actually going to move as one of the buttons is sticking.
    CG: Well maybe it's turning cold. That machine next to it has been very cold, it could be ready to hit.
    FK: Hmm. You really pay attention to this don't you. Tell me how does knowing which machines are hot and cold help you?

    AND HERE WE GO:

    Change Girl: Well if it's a cold machine it might be ready to turn hot and start hitting. Or it could just be a cold machine and stay cold. If it's a hot machine it could keep being hot and hitting or it could turn cold!!! It's very important to know.

    I am quite sure she had no idea whatsoever that she had flawlessly described exactly why the knowledge was not important and did NOT-HELP anyone in anyway.

    ~FK
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2021
  6. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I must say I don't quite understand this. I thought the banker advantage came from acting second and drawing based on the players total. You're saying that's wrong? Or did I misunderstand you?

    If that is what you're saying it would be extremely interesting and valuable info...Well for one thing it would make betting on the bank worse, rather than better.

    If you could explain this just a little more, and I'll refrain from further comment.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2021
  7. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    It is because of the Banker 3rd card drawing rules. Banker draws last and if a card is drawn this is dependent upon the Player total. This is why Banker wins more often. If you will Google "why does banker win more than player in baccarat" you can read about the drawing rules.

    I am not quoting anybody. If you have 100 baccarat cards you have saved from the casino just count the bankers and players. You will have more bankers. I have thousands of shoes and it is the same.
     
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  8. porky

    porky Active Member

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    Once again I will state to do the exercise for yourselves.
    I have counted shoes many times. I'm the guy that Hit over 200 shoes where Player had such an advantage that if you bet only Player you could have made fortune. I didn't because Banker has a advantage. Hah.
    I guess you've never had two faces verses a 6 Player pulls a 6 Bank now has to draw and his 6 now gets reduced.
    Happens to me every week at least once or more.
    I could go over several hands where the drawing rules screw you. They keep the game at even.
    This game was made when there were no computer simulations to dictate the edge of the drawing rules.....There aren't any.....

    As for shoe tracking? Good question. I was in Biloxi when the Trans were there. You can look them up on you tube. I didn't know it at the time but they actually were setting me up to get me to work for them. I didn't know this till seeing the documentary t.v. on them and how they got their victims. I guess I was naive at the time.
     
  9. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Thank you both for explaining this in more detail.
     
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  10. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Porky is absolutely correct in his above post. It is 50/ 50.

    But I am not a friend of any EC games .
     
  11. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    That's interesting. Yes, I saw that on some program a while back. I think they actually arrested the Trans at the IP, right?
     
  12. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    You’re just seeing a small bias. I wouldn’t continue to double down on trying to convince anyone that this game is 50/50. Banker does win more.

    Your scenario with 6’s or any drawing rule, it does benefit the banker in the long run. Will you see it burn you, of course. Ever played blackjack… really sucks when you have 12 and the dealer is showing a 2. Unless you’re counting, and the count is heavily in your favor, you have to hit that. What’s worse is having 13 against the dealer showing a 2.

    It’s possible that a player could bust hitting that 12 or 13 dozens of times, even convince themselves that it’s better not to hit it, let the dealer bust… right?

    But what you’re seeing in that scenario or just baccarat in general is variance.

    I have over 30,000 shoes, nearly 200,000 live baccarat decisions. I track everything and record everything.

    The data checks out. Banker wins versus players are right there with the math.
     
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  13. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei Active Member

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    Banker wins slightly more than player in the long run.
    But it is negligible in the short term where you play according to what the shoe is showing you.
     
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  14. porky

    porky Active Member

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    Really dude. Lets do the 6 or the 7 after 2 faces Banker has 6.
    1,2,3 only those 3 cards will result in 3 wins or 2 wins and a tie.
    4,5,6,7,8,9, ALL lose.
    The 4 tens will tie on the 6 and lose on the 7.
    Wow 2 to 1 on the numbers for the player.
    4 ties to 4 losses. Again going to the player.
    How does this benefit the Bank.
    It doesn't.

    This isn't rocket science. That is why if you believe its not 50-50 again prove it by the cards.

    Again you can't.

    Any amount of shoes can go any way short or long term. You guys are not the only ones that kept records. When I realized the Banker dominance was a sham I threw everything out. It was not catching the Player. What is the next decision its always 50-50 minus the tie.

    You can prove your point easily just show what cards dealt can't be changed to Player by changing the orders.
     

  15. porky

    porky Active Member

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    Sorry Fathead I didn't mean to not answer.
    I don't know if IP is where they got arrested. I do know they worked it. That is also the casino they attempted to set me up.
    For years I thought it was just a casino error. At that time I would take my winnings when I saw my chips stack up, color up and head to the cage.
    The dealer counted my chips. Told me the amount. I was good with it. Went to the cage got my cash and headed to my room.
    Upstairs I was recounting my cash. I knew I won but I had a thousand to much.
    I looked at my wife and said I got to return this. Yes I know a lot of people wouldn't but its me. I went back to the same table. Same dealer. Explained I was overpaid and didn't notice till I hit my room. He called over the pit boss. She didn't act surprised or bothered. Neither did the dealer. She had me place the money on the table. He turned it into chips and then put them back in the rack.
    I always thought that a thousand dollars would have been a bigger deal than that.
    Years later watched the video. The Trans would have dealers and pit critters on the take. They would overpay a sucker then approach them later stating they knew he was overpaid and threaten to turn them in if they didn't work for them.
    I also recognized the entire group from their mug shots. The one guy used to clear the table for them by blowing smoke in peoples faces and just being rude. I left several tables because of this jackass. I also sat at several tables while they wrote down every card. I thought that it was ridiculous. No clue about fake shuffles.
    They also had signs all over town for no mid shoe entries on bj I assumed because of them.
    Good Times....
     
  16. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Crazy stuff. They made (stole) millions before they were arrested. No one ever knows when to walk away. Maybe we just don't hear about the people that do.

    I read a book by Richard Marcus (not his real name), American Roulette, describing how they would past post chips at the Roulette table using "mechanics" on the team. Mind boggling the things they would do.
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2021
  17. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    I can assure you if they blew smoke in my face they’d have a big problem.
     
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  18. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    That's just one scenario, after four cards if the Player is losing, it doesn't get another chance to draw like the Banker always does. The Bank advantage is somewhat small, then when you factor in the vig, there is no discernable advantage at all.

    That's so funny, I've heard the same crap in real life, you're no alone :D

    :D:D:banghead:


    I agree, but short term 6~7 shoes anything can happen.

    Had it loads of times, not a favourable situation if you're on the Bank, Chinese players don't like it, but 7 cards are ok, 1,2,3 along with 4 face cards and 6 cards are bad for you, as I say it's only one scenario.

    Anybody got a link for this,
     
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  19. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Past posting is so yesterday:)
     
  20. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I must say I love that you have thought about this so much. I'm normally surrounded by people that don't think at all. LOL.
    Your argument is quite compelling.

    I found this article online and thought perhaps we could pick it apart and try to figure out where it is wrong:

    https://www.casinocitytimes.com/joh...wins-more-often-than-player-in-baccarat-60371

    There may be better ones. Any would do. I think it'll help me understand better if I see it in the form of an error in the established paradigm.
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2021

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