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Baccarat THE 50-50 GAME

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by porky, Oct 15, 2021.

  1. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    The fat-head done researches showin that bet b only allow you to capture 2076 more coup of backs to backs win than the next best style the fld. So how the hell can ya say that it's the 50-50 proposition? The bankers bet is the only bargain yer gonna get in the casino but some cats wanna loook the gifts horse in a mouth and make dumb bet on players. Oh well, more profits for me, hey hey.
     
  2. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    The shrewd cat should be strictly concern with the long run, hey hey!
     
  3. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I would merely like make the point that regardless of who is right or wrong in this thread it's a HUGE-POSITIVE to challenge and test preexisting paradigms. I remember studying "the Mpemba Effect" in science class where they laughed at and subsequently kicked out the young smart student the suggested that hot water could freeze faster than cold water. Years later in a different school his new teacher made the class do his experiment again with the intention of humiliating him. Many of the students in the class got his result but they kept dismissing the results that did not match their expectation and re-running the experiment until they got the result they wanted.

    It is the quintessential cautionary tale against dismissing new information. Hot water does indeed freeze faster than cold under certain circumstances due to the thermodynamic properties of molecular motion and fluid dynamics.

    I promised myself I would try not to do this in science or life.

    I think we should take a REAL look at what the OP is saying, without snark. And if his theory doesn't hold up, that's not a bad thing in any way for any one. It's how good science is done. Without all the people that were willing to be wrong and try new things, you would NOT be reading this on your computer right now.

    That's my two-cents. I have some free time today. I'll give it all a closer look.

    References: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mpemba_effect
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2021
  4. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    I think you should rephrase your statement to: “I love how you didn’t think about this enough.” Somewhere along the line he simply created a bias and doesn’t understand the mathematical advantage banker has by drawing last. It’s a very small advantage, so it’s easy to deal out a few hands to yourself and come to the conclusion that it doesn’t make a difference; but it does. Several commenters have tried pointing him in the right direction, but he insists that “we’re” the stupid ones because we get it and he doesn’t. Heh. If you really want to dive in and check it out for yourself because someone bravely came along who doesn’t know the difference between “your” and “you’re” making confidently incorrect statements about the game, be my guest. Doesn’t matter what you come up with or how you explain it, you’ll just be wrong of course. Just because you figure it out and the mathematicians figured it out, doesn’t make a difference. You’ll have just as much luck trying to convince a hillbilly that ivermectin doesn’t cure Covid.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2021
  5. porky

    porky Active Member

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    ;

    Yes Sir, I don't understand the mathematical advantage. Why not explain it to me instead of repeating the same garbage.
    I can point at the drawing rules and pick them apart.
    Don't draw on 3 when player pulls an 8. 2 ways for banker to win 3 ways to lose 1 to tie.
    In most scenarios the only bank would gain an advantage by the drawing rules is if he could choose to draw or not.
    The third player card to player does dictate the total of player depending on players initial total.
    Why dictate not to draw on 8 why not 9? 2w 3l 1 t.
    And thanks for pointing out my spelling error. I've lived this many years with dyslexia and love it when an internet smart guy calls me out over a word. Gee Thanks.....
     
  6. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    The reason I don’t explain this to you is because you don’t ask questions, you make statements. You state “you can’t.” Which I very well know I can, but choose not to because it’s futile on my part. But since you asked, I will give you the benefit of the doubt that maybe you’ll actually understand.
    So 3’s and 8’s. You’re off to a good start. You know the rules, when banker has a three and player draws a third card of an 8, banker doesn’t draw.

    I’ll break this down in such a simple way that I think you might get it.

    if player has 0 or a 1 before drawing an 8, those hands hurt the banker. So that’s two scenarios where it doesn’t help the banker overcome 50-50.

    now if the player has 2, 3, 4, or 5 and then draws an 8, the banker wins 3 out of those 4 and ties in one scenario, the 5.

    so that’s 3 scenarios that help the banker, and only 2 that hurt the banker. 3 to 2. That’s an advantage for the banker when it comes to being able to make the last drawing rules.
     
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  7. porky

    porky Active Member

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    First I would like to say you are 100% right on the drawing rules and I was wrong.
    Second I still stand behind the shoes I had that would actually represent a Player advantage if that was all one went by.
    Generally for me Player and Banker always do their best to come to even.
    DBL tries to come to even.
    And Chop and Follow generally try to come to even.
    All of course with some variances.
    For me, and again that is for me, I see no advantage to only betting Banker bets.
     
    Jae likes this.

  8. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Jae is right even if he posted incorrect values (0 is about 1.5 times more likely than every other two-card initial point and even point as 2 and 4 are less likely than odd points as 1 and 3).

    When Banker gets a 3, Player draws and third P card is an 8, WLT probabilities are:

    Player has an initial point of 0 (14.33%) P wins
    Player has an initial point of 1 (9.65%) P wins
    Player has an initial point of 2 (9.35%) B wins
    Player has an initial point of 3 (9.65%) B wins
    Player has an initial point of 4 (9.35%) B wins
    Player has an initial point of 5 (9.65%) tie hand

    Overall and discounting the tie possibility, we'll get a 23.98% probability Player will win and a 28.35% probability Player will lose, that is a 1.18% advantage for the Banker to win.

    The B advantage raises when B shows a 4 and Player draws and even more when B shows a 5 and Player draws (maximum asymmetrical strenght, that is B advantage)

    The spot when B has a 6 and third card dealt to P is a 6 or a 7 so eliciting B to draw a card, just reduces the B disadvantage in such scenario.

    On the other end, there's some value about porkys point as on average 91.4% of the times two-initial card points will hugely affect the final results and such spots are perfectly symmetrical placed but hugely asymmetrically payed when winning (P=1:1 and B=0.95:1).

    as.
     
  9. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    I'm not going to review or fact check this, I'll let my thought process flow, if I'm wrong, or over-looked something, then so be it.

    Banker has a small advantage of whatever percent.

    Let's take an average shoe of 70 actual results, 2 x shoes, 140, 4 x shoes 280, we will round that up to 300 for simplicity.

    Banker win more hands overall in the long term, 300 actuals should be enough to see some expected maths?

    Banker wins 155 hands out of 300, Player wins 145. You flat bet at $100, basically making $1000 for a 4 hour grind circumventing Uncle Sam and that US declaration form. Call the wife, GF or BF, tell them to go online and start looking at a 2nd car, upgrade, screw the boss, whatever.

    $1000 bucks and free drinks for 4 hours work, yeah baby, I'll have some of that.

    This is the smoke and mirror dream the Guinness drinker tries to promote.

    Well even if that dream situation were true, you're only going home with $225, but let's be quite on that one, don't wanna spoil anybodies meal ticket.

    Now let's consider what really goes down if your stupid enough to buy into this, the Banker advantage is actually 1.36%, so for 300 actual results the Banker is expected to win just over 4 hands more than the Player, basically 152 ~ 148

    No worries, up the ante to $200 flat bet?? Either way, 152 x 5% = $760 tax along the way, which kind consumes the $400 profit (did I make a frigging mistake here?)... You win more hands than you lose "4", and you still lose money, WTF!!!

    You see, each and every one of those 152 winning Banker hands, you still have to pay the vig, so basically any Banker win is not offsetting all those Player winning hands.

    Now what can happen in reality. Dead Heat, 150 hands a-piece, has you walking out $750 despite a 50-50 hit rate.
    Player can dominate for a little while, which would, emmm basically crush you for a few weeks if not months, your GF, BF could end up using a bike to get around and I've seen this so so many times, but hey hey, we are in it for the long term alrighty, yap yap..

    Banker wins finishes 5 hands per shoe for each of the shoes, hey let's dream big, ok ok. So the end result is, 170 Banco's and 130 Punto's, lovely jubberly, $4k less the vig, which is $850, for a profit of just over $3k, not bad when that happens!!

    EXCEPT it's about 5 TIMES BEYOND the expected maths, so it's going to be rare as seeing a middle aged fantasist whom has a long term bad habit at a Baccarat table trailing this shit.

    Apologies in advance for any errors, I did this in a hurry.





    .
     
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  10. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    I gotta say I'm surprised byn the porky cuz I thought he was somewhat intelligent. I expect that the limey-retard aka squishy bits will utter nonsense cuz he's stoooooooooooopid, same goes for the Mohegan sun coconut and the al-relax the retard of retard. I don't just run my gob with long talk I test a thing sufficient before I come to the conclusion. In addtion to ongoings test of my bet flat style I also test buckin up against 3200 shoe betting banks only usin a modify star style and captured 5.5 units nets profits per. I also test against the same 3200 shoe usin the same porgression bettin players only and it tanked hard, early and never recover. So, wagering on players is always a LOUSY< DUMB COCONUT proposition. But it is what it is, right, hey hey.

    IT'S A MONEY GAME!!!!!
    ITS ABOUT YER STAKINGS PLAN!!!!!
    IT'S A 50-50 COINS FLIP PROPOSITION!!!!
    HARUMPH HARUMP BLUSTER BLUSTER!!!!
    BBBBBWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
     
  11. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Junket King,


    My like was for your explanation only but that`s not how the cookie crumbles during the game.

    ND
     
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  12. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    Here's how the cookie might crumble. The Banker has a tiny tiny small advantage, everybody knows that.

    Tables running 24/7, the wise-one stops muttering hey hey as he slowly wakes from his slumber. Puts one foot on the beer soaked carpet as it rises from his flea pit. Throwing a Guinness down his neck, doesn't bother to have a wash (saves on the leccy bill) a quick spray of brut will do the trick, as he puts on his attire that hasn't seen the inside of a washing machine in 6 weeks. He sets off to the some casino in Toronto thinking about comps, he lets out an excited "hey hey" as a bus comes into view as he arrive at the bus stop.

    Pay the fare with handful of loose change and he's on his way. Arriving at the casino at 2pm, buyin' using those social security handouts he's been saving for the last six months and gets on down to business, first bet on the Bank...

    Now here is the rub, this non-playing bluster fuck, has no idea about all those other shoes that were dealt prior to his arrival, they could have been Player dominate, hey hey things should even out right? Or, oh dear, they could have been BANKER DOMINATED, he simply doesn't know, cos' he wasn't there. So unless he knows for sure they were heavily P Dom shoes, he is basically screwed

    Screwed for two reasons, firstly if they were B dom shoes for the last few hours, expect a return to mean? Secondly refer post above the Bank advantage is only a few hands per shoe and even that has you walking out with less money than which you arrived, despite hitting a 50~52% strike rate. Thank fuck for the Canadian Welfare System.
     
  13. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    • Violation of Rule #1: Be Respectful
    Query, is the squishy-bits still squawkin cuz I can't hear him. Oh well perhaps the chickens shit, scared loser limey twat will retreat into his bunker for good, hey hey.
     
  14. porky

    porky Active Member

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    The exercise I was talking about with the four card shuffle came about for me after seeing the crooked dealer I think Junket posted a link to some time ago. I assume she was reading the top card before she pulled it out and was switching cards to make it go however she wanted.
    Since then I was looking at the cards for some time. I'm a visual learner. You can change the outcome on nearly every hand by switching the cards. On the third card rule a lot of times you can switch the cards and the bank will still draw and lose.
    The post on the math by asymbacguy I could not have made but the numbers make it more clear how this can happen because of the odds on the first two cards.
    The edge is so slight building a game on just that would be difficult to win.
    I witnessed a player make thousands betting just Bank over a long period of time. Then I witnessed him trying to back bet five dollar chips and getting tossed for annoying players.
     

  15. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    I've witnessed the exact same thing, flat betting the Banker, he last about 2 or 3 days before he went stone-cold broke. This is what you don't see during kitchen fakery table testing bullshit.

    Can't wait until the oxygen thief who claims to have won $250k for the last 12 years straight, puts this stupidity to the test, Toronto casinos should relax their mask rule specially for the occasion, so folk can have a good laugh and somebody pls tell the dealer to shout "hey hey" when the tool leaves the table red-faced and in the red.

    Keep printing those Social Welfare Cheques.......
     
  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    If I was a gambling man, I'd be betting on, that you're reading each and every one of my posts, not because you are truly a thicko, rather you're a prized idiot, who keeps mentioning that you're not, which something only an imbecile would do.
     
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  17. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    Hey JK. Where ya been? I did a search for ya, and this seems your last post..Oct 20!
     
  18. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    Actually, the last post I see from you on GFs is Oct 31. So what ya been up to?
     

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