Baccarat The Good, the Ugly & Human Nature

Ok been meaning to post an update 'bout last week casino jaunt, but been busy at work, something which has now come to an end (yippee).

Anyway let's get into what went down and what went wrong, before I begin a big shout out to Glenda the dirty racist lying snake who I see reads my posts, what happened to the Chinamans money? Did you gift it to the casino or send it to Victor?? And yes, rightly or wrongly yeah I can win at will most of the time IF and that IF will be explained shortly....

BTW, anybody who relies on winning side-bets, is a guaranteed LOSER, period, no if or buts about it. I've watched players sit at the table and within a few hands they have won the table max of £10 on the zero Tie for a £1600 payout, are they long term winners? Nope and neither are you, you felon.

Anyways back to Baccarat.

Sunday afternoon, my first shoe 14:50, buyin 60 units, this is my usual buyin' amount, my goal target is 100%, so I'm aiming for a 60u profit.

First shoe which only took 40 mins thank god, I'm a shite +3 units, fuck me, will be here forever more to grind out 60u. I know I'm far to cautious a player, I really need to up the ante but will admit I've a bit of a mental block, it takes many shoes for me to loosen up, it ended something like W13 L11

I wouldn't mind but I have somewhere in the region of 500 units on me, I'm in for 60 and avoid betting 3u and get nervous betting 5, what the hell.

I start upping things shoe #2, actually bet 6u after losing 1,2,2u bets straight at the start of the shoe.
Win 17 L13, I think I had a 6u bet on the Player, I put 1u on the Tie which came in at 9-1, anyway end of shoe #2 I'm up 24u. This is more like it, I wanna hit my 60u or better and relax in my hotel.

Shoe #3 W12 L14, includes winning a 16u bet after losing 3iar 4, 6 and 10u, only managed to pull 3u from this shoe, so now +27

At some stage, maybe after the above shoe, I left the casino for a meal, no more freebies at casino, silly prices for Chinese food. Half hour break, discipline batteries fully recharged.

Shoe #4 W6 L2, note the frequency of bets plummet, not intentional, but no feeler bets, stuck strictly to the program, it is a bet opportunity or or it isn't. I pulled 10u from this shoe. now here is the conundrum and my message to Glenda. Playing like I did Shoe #4 for an entire session I walk out a winner, unfortunately, fortunately I'm not a robot. I've been playing this game a very long time, I know all the pitfalls, but maybe not as bad as some, I still have my frailties, weakness when it comes to ultimate control.

To move things along, Shoe #5 I'm up +43, 17u to go and I'm done, why do I push myself? I treat it as a personal test, I believe in me, I know I'm good when I'm totally in control and everything is to my liking, in particular the speed of the game.

Shoe #6 a tad more difficult W14 L15, (5Lair) It feels like I am forever losing the first bet of the shoe, even it its only 1u, it's beginning to rattle me. I'm now +45u, 6 bloody shoes, it's been a long day, I'm now in a rush, 15u from my goal and due to all those factors, impatience etc etc, Shoe 7 the wheels fell off.

Shoe #7 W13 L22, so what the fuck just happened? I started to not wait for virtual losses, now when rare events happened, they hurt twice as bad. I had to rebuyin', no time to count, it was a paper-clip stack, the dealer was somebody I loathe with a passion, so all the stars are now lining up against me.

It's around midnight, I've work in the morning and I've gone from +47 to "I've no idea" and I'm in for 260u, also I've now alerted the pit critters that I do have a fair whack of cash on me. To pull this back k I'm gonna have to step out of my comfort zone and if that goes bad, then I'm in big big trouble, or I could walk away now with a small loss.

As I don't fucking like losing [Period], I'm now going to war and I'm not happy Jan, all the while my head is telling me, "you soft twat, you were 47u up". Not exactly where I wanted to be at.

Shoe #8 was a complete disaster, again no wait for virtual losses, but that was my intent as I am now using two staking levels. W9 L22 Fuck me, I've only just counted them up, now I have no choice, I was betting aggressive at the lower unit level, which obviously didn't work, I'm in no fit state to be waiting for virtual losses against shoe that take 1 hour, I'm losing, I'm tired and hungry and it's about 1am.

Shoe #9 & #10, no idea which is which, one ended W13 L7 and the other W9 L8. Too tired to continue, have to be up in the morn, I counted my chips and managed to avoid the loss, I walked out 7 units in profit. Far cry from the 60u I was after, plus I blew 40 profit.

Fuming most of Monday, I wasn't that far from the casino, so managed to leave work early with the aim to put some respect on Sunday's session.

This is nuts, it truly is, hence why I called this post Human Nature. I've gone from not having gambled, online or otherwise for close on two years, to now after a week or so, work is a hindrance, I don't want to gamble, rather want money for my time and effort for y/day, money for my fuck up..

How Gambling can simply consume you, occupy every waking minute, it's crazy. About 4pm I'm back at the table, the intent is a couple of shoes, get home, get a good nights sleep, goal target, the lost 40u would be nice.

Initial Buyin' 100u, played 4 shoes, can't recall a lot of the session, my discipline was there in regards to waiting for VL's, but I came in at a higher unit level, not what I usually do and in due course the bet sizes rocketed as I was using two sets of Labby strings at different chip values and had to rebuyin' twice to cover my bets, all up I was in for 280u, not that I used or needed it all.

During one of the shoes I needed to put a 40 or 50u bet on the Player. So covered it with a 2u bet on the Tie which came in for an 18u profit. This allowed me to reduce my Player bet to 25u which won the next hand.

To wrap this up, again to fatigued, I left around 9pm for a hour drive home and hit the sack, I let with 21u profit. I didn't lose either the Sun or Mon, but I'll admit it was SHIT, fuck all this when you have to be somewhere the next day, fuck this 5am closing, fuck these slow shoes when you're trying to get your money back. Sod the unrealistic goal target? But why the latter, it's something I used to do with consistency.

Now my work contract is up, this having to drive for an hour to get a decent game is bollocks too. If things go West and everything takes longer, then you have drive for an hour to get home.

Since Monday I ain't given playing a second thought, I'm aiming to go again Saturday, I'm looking for a decent win then I'll stick my nose in a local joint, while the pit boss said nobody plays, I reckon she was lying, there might be action on the appropriate night. There used to be a time a long while back, where I could wake up at 4am, eat and wash and get some table action within the hour, play whenever I wanted, not any-more, right pain in the ass.

Shoes from the Sunday session;

 

Shoes 4 ~ 8

 

Yes Glenda, when I'm not fatigued, not in a rush, when I'm fresh, rested and fully alert, I can win at will. Losing jags? I'll sail over them, limit their damage, as they are few are far between. Impatience, going early, playing conditions, slow game, lack of sustenance, crap waitresses who only come around once per few hours, casino staff whom you dislike intently dealing the game or hovering over you, will trip me up, otherwise.... Unfortunately I'm not a robot and unlike some dumb-asses that play the game, not relying on some stupid side bets paying 100 to 1 or whatever the odds you are playing, getting all excited and posting images all nicely highlighted and circled, with ZERO mention of all those losing hands when it never came in. I occasionally bet 1u on the Tie as cover, because any lose doesn't really matter, in fact I treat every Tie bet placed as a losing bet whether it wins or not.

I do know the score, I see it all before, another idiot sucked in by the high paying, high vig side bets, casinos love them, when you win, it is only a loan from the casino, you'll return it back pretty soon. Maybe you don't think I'm not tempted to put £5 or £10 on the zero Tie for a 160 to 1 shot after I watch somebody win it twice in the one shoe and they have a few blues in front of them!! Nope, cos I also see the same players waste £10 for the other 65 hands of the shoe. So that is £650 returned back there, and in the majority of cases when there is no Zero Tie it's costing them £750 PER SHOE, but hey, when it comes in, there is lots of hollering and shouting, all they see is the £1600, they have no recollection of the amount of money they have wasted chasing it, which sounds exactly like you, pictures of winning bets, but no mention of all the losing hands, get the fuck out of here.

You have no fuckin game Glenda, you're a side bet mofo junkie gambler, you defrauded and stole decades ago to feed your gambling habit and not much has changed, except you dress it up as "being for the poor kids" when you realised Lungy was an easy mark, yet you had the gall to call out Mark, I bet you were trying to shame Mark into stumping up so you could claim a finders fee or maybe pocket it all, who knows how the mind of a habitual lair operates, one pure grade louse Glenda is.

 

Here's what you're doing wrong. Why I'm bothering to tell you I don't even know because you'll just come back with some bullshit personal crap. Your goal is too high, and you stuck with it like it's made out of iron. You don't tell the game what to do, the game lets you win or lets you lose. You should have walked when you had 45, I would have. Secondly you have to be able to recognize when the variance is starting to majorly screw with you. This is why I reduced my game to win one unit and quit. Everything in every casino game runs in waves. You got on a downward wave and did nothing about it, you just kept playing. Don't do that, tighten up your game. Be more fluid in you're thinking, right now your mind seems like a bear trap but the only thing you're trapping is yourself.

 

Bbbwwwaahhhhhhhh, the evnbob-spike givin the john-O adices about baccarats, hey hey.

 

"Here's what you're doing wrong. Your goal is too high, and you stuck with it like it's made out of iron."

My goal isn't too high, I know what I can and have achieved, what I'm doing wrong is not being gracious and accepting sometimes it can't be achieved. I'll probably play later on, so let's see how that transpires. It doesn't take much to get roped back into this shit haha

 

Junket King - thanks for a good read - question - I always had the impression that you play for a living but could read that you had to get to work the next morning - have you had a period where you play for a living -

Cheers Patrik

 

When the conditions are just right, sure. But just because you want it and just because you've achieved it before has absolutely nothing to do with present conditions. This is why I play for one unit because I am absolutely positive I can do this every time I play. But I think you and I are very different in that you like playing and get an emotional high from winning and I do not. Every week I have to haul my garbage can on wheels to the bottom of my driveway which is a ways from my house. When I do this do I feel a great satisfaction and accomplishment? Hell no, it's just a job I had to do. I feel exactly the same way about playing and winning roulette. Get it done, get it over with, go do something else. If I found a bag in a public trash can that had $10,000 in it I would be excited. If I went to a brick-and-mortar casino and played Roulette and won $10,000 I would feel like, yeah, that's what's supposed to happen.

 

Mr. Junket King posted a candid Trip Report including copies of score cards.


He reached his goal he had set .

 

"I wouldn't mind but I have somewhere in the region of 500 units on me, I'm in for 60 and avoid betting 3u and get nervous betting 5, what the hell."

A very common problem that most of us have. I know a guy who was trying to move from being a red blackjack player to a green blackjack player and it took him a couple years because he convinced himself that when he went green his game was just going to fall apart. Of course that's ridiculous and when he finally made the switch his game didn't change at all. The only way I can bet larger amounts is to have a ridiculously large bankroll. That way my subconscious feels safe because it's my subconscious that makes me want to hold on to larger amounts of money. I consciously know that my game is no different if I bet $1 or $200 but my subconscious is not so well informed.



.

 

Good question about that 500 unit extra bankroll. Whay can happen during the sessions to require

more funds and be covered with such a larger amount .


He might have had his reasons .

 

"I always had the impression that you play for a living but could read that you had to get to work the next morning - have you had a period where you play for a living -"

Yes a few years back, numerous times , I generally also don't turn down paid employment, as it forces me to take a break.

Just got home, was sitting next to some Chinese high roller, he had exchanged £20k over his appearance? I've never seen a guy lose so much money,I was sitting next to him, I heard him mention Singapore, but guessed he didn't wanna have a convo. £10 on the zero Tie every hand, and most of the shoes were bear of Ties no matter what the number, mostly 2 or 3 ties per shoe, I expected them to come in abundance eventually, it never happened. I saw him hit 2 Zero Ties for a £1600 payout for a £10 bet. He said he hit zero Tie 3 times, lots of hollering as per norm.

But just like Glenda (thanks for the follow by the way), he conveniently forgets it was costing him approx £650 per shoe in lost bets, so each time when he did win, all it was was "money back". But he seemed loaded and not really my business, he would stare at the score board every hand, looking for repeating patterns that happened 10~20 hands ago, jesus wept, talk about Dinosaurs!!! At one stage he must have lost 4~6 juicy bets in a row, much to the delight of the casino.

Myself I initially bought in for 60u, I was +11 end of shoe 2 and -1 end of shoe #3 LOL, not sure where I was at end of shoe #4 but something like +20u as I changed up a gear with my betting stake. at one stage I was up approx 34u then my strings began to get out of control, discipline was good, I did not pursue any ABR bets when only one bet opportunity presented it self. Not sure what happened next, guess it was my time to get whacked (nobody else was winning), and i'm buying in not once, but twice more as I needed more capital due to the constant gear changes in bet levels. The 34u profit and 60u buyin evaporated (haha), I'm in for 140u, out of a 700u BR which I did not want to call on under any circumstances, once you start buying in for 300~500u you are putting it at risk. Anyway I had a fair amount of confidence in what I was doing, but losing bets prior to the anticipated winning bet was doing my head in.

One particular shoe I took the tie bet 3 times and each time it came home. No I can't predict when a Tie is gonna happen, I just happened to hedge it when I had 10 unit bets of more out, 25u bet on the Player, I hit a double Tie at 9-1, which allowed me to reduce that Player bet to 10 or 15u (can't recall), which I also won.

Must played over 7 shoes, in the end people were jumping from one table to another, which screwed me, as I needed them to carry the shoe, so feeling fatigued, remembering what I posted above, fuck the 100% goal target, I left +28u, which to be honest was shit, yeah a win is a win, but given the buyin risk, the time and so on, yeah it's okay, but nothing to shout home about. I placed single bets larger than the 28u, but there you go. Small wins accumulate, provided the aren't accompanied by a big blow out.

I'm gonna have to consider dropping 7Col FLD and AS, as they are failing a tad to often.

"I know a guy who was trying to move from being a red blackjack player to a green blackjack player and it took him a couple years because he convinced himself that when he went green his game was just going to fall apart."

The thing is, I need scope to gear up, if I come in betting black or pink and get into strife, what am I gearing up to if those notches on my multiple Labby strings represents £100 units. If I gear up to £100 chips, I want to gear back down asap, in a game where anything can happen and you can't predict jack shit, a blow out at the £100 unit level and you have the potential of being raped at the tables, no thanks, I'd rather not be in that situation in the first place, or if it can't be avoided, limit my exposure.


Just a couple of shoes from 2nite.

The bet selection in the main is ABR (anti-binary-repeat), which basically is betting that a 127-1 pattern won't repeat anywhere either vertically or horizontally in the same shoe, the full explanation can be found on this web-site if you search for ABR. While failures are rare it can turn pretty ugly, hence why I over-lapped a couple of other bet options, which to be honest are not performing that well, so I'm gonna look into ditching those for 7Col-AM3.

I've shared previously what these aberrations stand for and the MM I'm deploying on this board (my string method).

Time to catch some ZZZzzzzz's

 

Serious cats what win regular and well do sufficient testings to determine of their style of play is a winner and to see how many units profits per shoe that style will capture. So, it's retarded to set a session win goal of 50-60+ units if yer style is gonna capture 3 units nets profits per shoe. The stops-win, stops-loss stuff is foolishness and nonsenses, hey hey.

 

Credit due where credit is due, one of your more semi-sensible posts in the last few years.

Testing is a waste of time, too many variables for it to have signifiant meaning, betting Banker only has been tested to the nth degree, all comes down to withstanding the variance.

Back to your post, good observation capturing 3u per shoe in conjunction with a 50~60u goal target. Actually I aim to make more than 3u per shoe, however if I made say 5u per shoe on average, that's 10~12 shoes and I'm done. Unfortunately as I'm human, I can't handle that amount of time at the tables. You have made me realise, the frequency of my betting is way too low for my goal target, something I need to address.

 

And that is exactly what I said. Your goal is way too high for the amount of play it takes to get there. If you buy in for 60 units a reasonable goal would be 25% of that for the game you play. You did really well getting up to 47 units, you actually should have walked when it got to 30. Realizing what you're doing wrong and correcting it is half the game.

 

Yep I agree, but it also depends who the player is.

Ventured to my local last night, I arrived at 9pm~ish, they said the best nights are Sunday's and Mondays, so I hung around until 10pm bored shitless watching Juv vs Inter. Fuck that, I got off. In hindsight since I haven't actually placed a bet in the place for over 10 years, I should have dabbled with my 3x EC's Bal vs UnBal roulette method (I think it is posted on the Roulette Life Board), the one where they ended up changing to a heavier ball, less scatter, easier for the dealer to land and stay on zero, after getting really fed up of me winning each day for near on a month. Maybe next time.

Some of the comments in this thread had me reviewing my game plan that resulted in me previously pulling in the units. That happened to be the bet selection O.L.D. The shoes are choppy as hell where I actually manage to get a game, so decided to give it go, kinda weird how much you can actually forget playing this game however.

So last minute decision to travel up the motorway, I arrive and the shoe is on the 47th hand, grab a seat, buyin for 60u and start betting O.L.D. Within a short time I'm +11u, then get hit by some frigging end of shoe P streak, despite stopping betting I end +5u

First shoe proper, 40 odd bets placed, W17 L23 which included 3 x hedged winning Tie bets. I've geared up already and betting fairly aggressive. I also abandoned OLD, waayy way too much stress, your money is up and down like a fucking yoyo, hence I had to buyin for another 20u to cover a next bet amount.

While I have the capital, the bet selection O.L.D is simply too volatile. I end the shoe "no idea" how much, maybe +10~ish

Table hop while they take 20 mins to count and shuffle up, soon those +10u and no longer. I play half a shoe on the adjacent table and move back to my original table. The reason for doing this was there would be no more vertical bet opportunities, only horizontal which puts me in a situation of betting isolated events, which if they fail, there are no other recoup opportunities, those that understand ABR should comprehend.

Shoe #4 W14 L11, I'm up approx 60u and I'm hungry, still early not yet 5pm. I leave cas' for a bite to eat, I've done 100% of my original buyin. but had to buyin for an extra 20u, so let's see if I can get 100% of the total buyin.

Scrap all my Labby figures and start afresh, goal 20u is my target, Shoe #5 W8 L10, I made a few units despite losing more bets than winning.

I also realised 7Col-AM3 causes too many conflicts, the ironic things is, the shoes on both tables are choppy as hell except for the occasional 10 streak of P's & T's. The Super Banker bonus 12 streak is now at £5k and hasn't been won for some time. Frustration slowing beginning to creep in, too many LW's and LLW's. This ABR stuff is not designed to return any +VG hit ratio, it is designed to produce short, manageable LIAR's, which is it doing, but it's not really doing my solitary 2 Labby strings much good.

Shoe #6, simply can't handle the frustration, while there wouldn't be any chance of turning this profit into a loss, as I would have re-bought in for the long haul, I was trying to knock it on the head on the cheap but couldn't.

The last half shoe went; WLLLW LW LW W LLLW W LW, I decided to fuck it, came to my senses rather than trying to prove a point (haha) and quit +73u, 7u short for the 100% mark.

Kinda mad, after going for a few years with no desire to gamble, although I did occasionally think of a fix for ABR (still under review). Now I just wanna keep striking while the iron is hot.

There was a comment above regarding BR, while I've got a hefty BR at my disposal, I never wanna use it, which begs the question why even carry it, as just that presents the temptation of using it. Well if I buyin for 60u and my total BR is say 100u, then I'm a bit under pressure while using that 60u, whereas if the 60u is less than a 10th of my total BR, there is no pressure putting that 60u to use, or re-buying in if you have to.

I've no intention of playing tomorrow, my promise to myself haha, Champions League night, Wed I'll be back, 100% of a 60u buyin would suffice nicely....

First 3.5 shoes before food.



Shoe #2 above, I missed the start of it, it starts with 4P and the first 7 col is 5P and 2B, this is the start of a shoe where you can make good money, I have got the bottle nor Bankroll to be placing first bets of hundreds of pounds and using a negative progression, otherwise I'd be done in half a shoe and be out the door.

I didn't miss the 1st shoe proper, it started PPBBBBB, fuck sakes, I hadn't warmed up yet and was still in friggin first gear, screwing around with O.L.D. Shoes starting like that are real 100% (yes 100%) money makers, guaranteed and when the fuck is anything in the game of Baccarat guaranteed???

Trust me, I've been playing this game for a long long time and designed many systems, I know what I'm talking about, I've been around the block I know what casinos are like, therefore I have no scruples sharing this info. Anyway all bet opportunities might not resolve, some may require 3 or 4 bets to resolve, but you will resolve enough of them to make some serious wedge if you come in heavy, play say 35~42 hands then leave the table.

Look at the performance of shoe #1

Bet Opportunity #1 LLW
Bet Opportunity #2 W
Bet Opportunity #3 LLW
Bet Opportunity #4 LLW
Bet Opportunity #5 LW

W=5 L=7, shit yeah? Not really, ABR is designed to "control the losses in a row", not provide a positive W/L ratio. Longest sequence of losing bets = 2. Ok this applies to this particular shoe, if anything was going to fail, it would be Bet Opportunities 4 & 5 (it's extremely rare to get two fails, like in the region of once per thousands and thousands of shoes).

So how do you handle the above? First off if you have won BO's 1,2,3 & 4, you let #5 go, it might not resolve, fuck it.

Wanna come in straight off the bat with some fuckin' heavy artillery(£500 or £1k units)? You've won 3 bets with the biggest loss string of TWO. You could chase #4 and step back and bet small for #5 or let it go and leave the table.

The loss of 2 for BO's 1 and 2 ain't gonna be worst than that, BO #3 in a worst case scenario might be LLLW. However, here is the rub, at least 3 of those 5 BO's must resolve and resolve with manageable loss strings, there is no other option, well maybe there is, but I calculate the odds at something like 260,144,641 to 1 Go figure, I have a choice of 2 tables, imagine a joint with lots of tables, you simply stand back and watch for the perfect start and hit the fuckin' thing. HAHA we can only live and dream, and I've just given it to you on a plate, free of charge, the fine detail is on my private forum.

 

Here ya go, correction on a figure above, it should be 268,435,456 to 1.

 

While I'm still buzzing, what will produce this 268 Million to 1 odds nemesis? When was the last time you witnessed a 7 streak repeat 4 times back to back to back to back? OR a back to back 14 streaks (ignoring Ties), OR 28 chops in a ROW?? Or something like a 3 streak followed by a 4 streak followed by a 3 streak, then a 4 streak, then a 3 streak, then a four streak, then a 3 streak and finally a 4 streak. Now you might begin to realise how robust this bloody thing is.

Want better ODDS than 268M to 1, how's about 4,294M to 1, easily doable, the only draw-back is having enough hands in a given single shoe. In Gentings in Singapore also Sky City Auckland they deal Baccarat from a BJ CSM machine, so they are endless shoes, wait for any streak of 8 which would signal the start of a virtual shoe, and Bob is your uncle.

 

Even a 20% win goal is attainable without any problems. Wanna win mor bring more .

 

Good, show me how you'll get a profit about those 267.999.999M or 4.293.999M of hands not fitting your 'nemesis' situation.
It's like betting against an improbable NATURAL situation to happen while always betting a 'random' EV- situation.

No offense intended, you're just one of the 3-4 scholars worth reading.

as.