Baccarat The Good, the Ugly & Human Nature

Ignore the 4,294M (256^4) probability, solely because I don't use it (I did few years back, alas not enough hands in a shoe, so for now it is on the backburner) rather focus on 268M (128^4).

Any pattern of 7 is the same as any other pattern of 7? Mathematically yes, but not really when applied to ABR, a random chaotic 7 hand sequence will in the main not produce say 6 bet opportunities, whereas a shoe starting with a streak of at least 7 will produce 6 BO's (bet opportunities).

So a shoe commences with a streak of at least 7 (5 or 6 will do, but 7 is optimal). I posted above examples of what the nemesis pattern would be, that starting streak of 7 being followed by 4 streaks of 7 or a shoe starting with a streak of 14 followed by another streak of 14.

Anybody who have been around the game longer than 5 mins, will know that ain't happening in their life-time. Somebody may have once seen 4 x streaks of 7, but at the beginning of a shoe, ditto 14 x2. Because it ain't happening then it also means winning bets are guaranteed.

You ask "show me how you'll get a profit", I'm not sure if that is a generalised question, or you understand ABR and it's not making sense LOL.

When I posted above;

Bet Opportunity #1 LLW
Bet Opportunity #2 W
Bet Opportunity #3 LLW
Bet Opportunity #4 LLW
Bet Opportunity #5 LW

In hindsight, when I said BO #5 may not resolve, I should have said, any one of those 5 x BO's possibly two (very rare) may not resolve.
Alas three or four of them will. When you are dealing with 7 BO's, it more or less guaranteed 5 at least will resolve, unless your about to witness 14 x 2 or 7 x 4 streaks.

So back to your question "how you'll get a profit", this is the difficult bit, due to myriad of possible scenarios; if you treat them as a single cluster of results you may or may not struggle, if you treat them as 7 individual bets, you will fair better, a tad more complex to implement. Meet somewhere in the middle by pairing the BO's with whatever progression you chose to deploy (everybody knows mine, which fits this like a glove).

I should point out, with ABR I usually start betting at Column 3, except when any shoe has started with a 5,6 or 7 streak, in which case I'll start betting at Column 2.

I won't run through every possible scenario, as I'm gearing up to head out to a casino in pursuit of some tax free cash pretty soon. Let's only deal with the extreme possible worst case.

Dependant on the 8th hand of the shoe and LLLLLL this would means if the 8th hand was a Bank then you are looking at a 14 streak, or if the 8th hand was a Player, then you are looking at repeating 7 streak.

How do you make a profit after losing 6 bets in a row (worst case remember), don't panic just yet;

(no bet)
L
L
L
L
L
L

If you have increased the bet amount after each loss, you'll still profit but you are going to need deep pockets and big balls.

You need to treat the BO's either individually or as pairs, running left to right and NOT top to bottom (this is the key), with a little bit of minor off-setting if you want. Bear in mind one or those L's may not resolve, therefore make your profit on the others and let it go. Soz I have to dash, hopefully I'll encounter a shoe which starts with a streak of 7 later on.

 

Thanks for your detailed answer!

as.

 

Good thing most cats on here interested in bulls-shits and not realities, hey hey.

 

If you know that at times yer not gonna meet yer wins goal then why set one at all. Win goals and stops loss are for loser recreational player. The proficient 21 cards counter don't set wins goal they just grind and let the profits come to them. You would know that if you tested to determine the strength and weakness of yer style. Why 60, why not 100 or 200 unit and just grind 40-50mshoe per session? But it ain't matter when ya dwell in the fantasy-land where you make dumb low percentage wager on player and compound that with even dumber low percentage wager on the tie but ALL of them tie bet come in and pay off for ya, right, Spi.., er john_o, hey hey.

 

A DG world ?

 

Casinos have the edge over this mentality.

 

I wouldn't have put a like on that stupid statement, but I guess you Trump idiots need to stick together aye...

Yeah I' turned a profit into a loss many times. I've also lost straight off the bat and never been ahead, so as per usual Kurt adds sod all of value, but hey it's noice to see the Walrus lawyer reading my thread and the cockfan too, I can feel the jealously coming through the ethernet, haha.

I won again, but it was one hard fought session, I might post details later.

Anyway just for the envious one, your looking at "just shy of 10 bags"., you feel me bro.

 

Yer bulls-shits, make it up as you go along, ridiculous style is a joke, but lots of cats ain't no no better and might actually believe that yer a winning player. Only retard don't test sufficient but yer nonsenses and foolishness could not stand testings or scrutiny. A while back you said that it's just gambling unless you have ++++ev so you should take yer own advices, hey hey.

 

When it comes to transparency, warts and all @Junket King tells it as it is.

Or should I listen to the guy who plays at the hey hey kitchen table casino where every child wins a prize.

 

Nah, the limey is the attentions seeker, the bull-shits artist and teller of talls tale, like the even-bob/spike, same style. Though the spike is better at it I must say, hey hey.

 

I usually ignore your posts but it's gots a bit much with all ya jibber jab man, so catz gotta buck up against it and a good poking in yer limey eye you getz.

<Eye poke>
You're actually jealous and don't want to admit you live vicariously through JK with your Walter Mitty imaginary gambling ambitions.
</Eye poke>

 

Nah, I win on a strict bets flat basis, something the limey has never done and will NEVER be able to do. A while back he squealed like a little bitch saying it's just gamblin unless you got an edge. He should really just talk vague and general like the spike cuz he give the game away when he talks specific and reveal his-self to be a coconut, hey hey.

 

Have you shared your method?

 

Hugo Fergyscum is so jealous, he turned green with envy years ago, then let his imagination run away with him, claiming on this site he has won $250 per annum for the last 12 years, a cool sum of over 3 Million. Yet here he is kitchen table testing for all he is worth 10~12 hours per day FLAT BETTING THE BANKER and then getting all excited with making a few units on-paper profit per shoe, muttering hey hey to himself, like it actually means something.

Not once mentioning the 5% vig Lool. A broke ass clown that has pulled $3m from the Canadian casinos (haha) living in some rented bed sit after busting out some 6 Grand Marty figure like only this idiot could, you literally couldn't make it up.

Suffice to say the only thing he has pulled consistently in the last 12 years is pubes from his mouth, hence the confession of being HIV+

 

JK comedy hour as usual. Enjoy.

 

Seriously what have you ever contributed on any forum in the last decade other than making up numbers?
You PM'd me a few times, thanking me for liking one of your posts, the other time I seriously thought you were about to ask me if you could borrow some cash Kurt.

Ok ok, for those who may possibly remain in doubt as to whom is the prime IDIOT, against my better judgement I'll explain this TIE bet thing.

I only take the TIE bet if I have geared up from betting base units, it's like a hedge. I treat all TIE wagers as losing units, whether they win or otherwise, to be recouped if needed once I have geared back down to betting base units.

Of course I am making all this up as you can see from the image.



Column 3 across the half way line there is a circled 9, meaning I got paid 9-1, then lost a 25 chip. I now need to increase my wager right? Which I did, but I again won a TIE 9-1 bet, which allowed me to remove a couple of black Chips off the felt, which was good as the bet lost anyway. And in the fourth column second from bottom, I won a 9-1 bet, which allowed me to repeat not increase the lost £150 bet.

Oops, I actually missed a winning TIE bet, 4th Column, second from the top, the 9 circled. So it was my mistake,m I do sincerely apologise I didn't actually place 3 winning TIE bets, it was 4 Winning TIE bets. I generally hedge the TIE dependant on the bet amount, even 1 chip on the TIE can make a diff' if it comes home, and makes no diff' if it loses, ya get me.

I don't record losing TIE bets on the score card, so I've no idea after the session has ended, no doubt I probably would have hedged the TIE bottom of Col 6. Suffice to say if I have a stack of Ponies on the felt, and the result is a TIE I am pissed off big time, this occurred last night, but I was tired, if you'll excuse the pun.

Ya see, some of us are at the Gaming tables and others are at Kitchen tables.

 

Telling it like it is, what the fuck happened last night!!!! I really shouldn't just be posting about the glory, let's have it warts an all, fuck the naysayers who nit pick the negatives, they can eat my shit, I'm doing it, you're not, simples.......

Got in nice and early just before 1pm, I pre-decided rather than look for supplementary side bets, to bet more aggressively against ABR, I certainly have the BR to pull me out of any jam, so let's rock 'n' roll.

Shoe #1 (see image) I'm +11 end of shoe, the five winning Banco bets second to last column are not part of ABR rather due to the button being in front of me and the fact the Fortune 8 (12 bankers in a row) is now at over £5k.

Few die hard early players at the table, including one of the worst Chinese guys I've witnessed. Buyin, after buyin after buyin, envelope of cash, gone, go the cage, another 2k, lasted less than 30 mins. This guy steering at the score board looking for a miracle would do something like £20 on the double Player or Banker, win that bet then increase his wager to something like £300 for the 2 to go to 3, utter madness. I felt sorry for him in the end, cos he got done (no word of a lie) at last 4 times Basi-gow (9-8) within 20 hands before he went bust, must admit he handled those events well. Fuck knows what he deposited in the tray, losing £6k maybe in less than a few shoes WTF.

Shoe #2 (see image) not forgetting my goal is 100% of my buyin, so I can tell folk like ND and my number 1 fan boy Hughie etc all about it. W12 L6, end of shoe +24 (this end of shoe chip count is not something I generally do, but appreciate soxfan likes to read the finer details), things are going great, gonna smash this 100% and then some.



Shoe #3, I really don't know what the fuck happened, rather than abandon a vertical BO I pursed it as I was in need of a recoup.
Call it complacency, cockiness, over-confident, arrogance, whatever, but if you play enough shoes you will encounter your nemesis sooner rather than later. I got hit and hit hard, music no doubt to HIVfan ears.

As I say, I'm not going to avoid or sugar coat things, but I changed to top gear and still lost. Many times during this shoe I literally felt like getting up and leaving the table, there was another Chinese guy two seats from me, and each time he we were on opposing sides, him squeezing the cards, he beat each and every time, it was mentally numbing, I'm sure Nathan knows the feeling well have played many a squeeze card game.

I won something like 9 bets and lost 21, if I go home now, I can call it a day and I'm even with the casino since I started playing again. After re-buying in twice, it got to the stage couldn't be arsed counting out my notes and just handed over another 200 units. I also went to the cage and drew out anther 400 units to go with the 400u still in my pocket just in case, yep a 1000u BR is at my disposal, and I'm going to have to start betting big if I'm gonna turn this around, not a nice place to be, mentally screwed.

To turn this around I have to be placing bets, that is the conundrum, dabbled with 7Col-AM3 and lost 4 bets straight away, I mean for fuck sakes. All up the biggest amount I had cashed in for was 420u, no qualms saying it, what I used of that, I've really no idea.

Fuck the 100%, this is survival mode and I don't know if I still have it in me to complete any marathon session like I used to, can't even get any free food out of these fuckers, they deducted my points. I've no info how the session progressed, encountering both column and row failures along the way, lots of in and out of 2nd and 3rd gear betting, biggest bet all night was 80u which came home, and yes my number 1 fan I won some TIE bets along the way too.

It was after 1am (I think) feeling shattered I'm still 24u in the hole and going to call it a night, I can live with that, then realised, I have to pay parking, it's cost me to get here, should I? I have a lot of backup to bet big like most others players and snare a small profit. I need to win one or two chips from an available 60u BR at the higher level and I'm done, but I didn't trust Murphy's Law

The thing that held me back was, should I drop, I won't have the stamina to get it back, it's ok when you are fresh and rested, but I had already been playing for over 12 hours. Lots of shoes played were half shoes, once any row BO's were exhausted, jump to another table. Been around too long to know, once you start betting your max, that is when the shoe from Hell is going to say, "HELLO YOU".

Anyway I stayed, I don't like pulling negative figures in my Excel spreadsheet, getting to even would be nice, mainly betting 2nd gear and against my better judgement, I say that because I was knackered and not thinking straight, otherwise I wouldn't have done it, I played a couple of half shoes and got up +25u and quit. hey man shit happens, your survive on adrenalin, while not pleasant, good to know could still manage it, I left just before 3am with a longish drive home. I played 15 shoes, some of which were half shoes, I can look back now and laugh, but it was a tad stressful to say the least, sinking feeling in the stomach, happens to the best of us, why do you think Hugo is holed up in Toronto at a kitchen table and not in Vegas or at the gaming table in Connecticut haha.

The manager who wasn't in a good mood for other reasons I'll get to shortly, said it probably wasn't worth it for the length of time I was there (she was at the cage confirming the payout, they have run out of 50's, hence the bag of 20's in the image above, hey hey soxyfan), I said it was better than losing. And there was me thinking prior to this session should I start taking chips home so they don't know how much I am winning LOL.

Anyway the reason why the manager wasn't in a good mood. In the UK each year we get a new batch of rich Chinese students, connected fathers? They end up in casinos bettting chips like it's confetti, they hang around for a year then a new batch appear on the scene. If they lose they simply ask daddy to wire more money, not that there parents know they are gambling junkies. This new batch eclipse anything I've seen before, about a dozen of them, one in particular was betting blue fairly consistently (blue = £1k), table max = 3 x blue, absolutely no fear, win or lose. Some gorgeous chick he was with sprawling all over the table, flicking a pink on the tie for a £900 payout, £1500 on whatever like it was monopoly money. her BF was killing them, crew doing their nut, he was up about £28k when I left. Throwing down £2k, two more blue, each time they restocked they tray, his goal was to get hold of those blues haha.

Nothing they could do about it, except entice him back in with some slim hope of him losing, his mates, betting £800, £1500 per hand, they were all killing the casino, not just one shoe, but literally all night, I'm looking at them, thinking fuck me, love to do that, but I don't have the backup, i'm sure soxyfan will be able to do this once he have played 20000 shoes flat betting the banco, alas not for me until I have a 6 figure BR, then I wouldn't do it anyway. Twenty eight fucking thousand sterling, phew, I had a major problem trying to focus on my recoup without being distracted by two utterly stunning chinese girls, I've seen good looking chinese girls before, but these two in particular were beyond top shelf haha, my God they were beautiful, my brain was battling between how far I have to go and I wonder what they are like down there hehe.

Meanwhile back in the land of reality, I am toying with the option of going to the bank and depositing half of my BR to safe guard it or having one last dabble with it on me, purely for confidence purposes only you understand, Haha...

 

I for one appreciate your candor and your detailed posts. I hope to one day emulate these posts with some of my own. Unfortunately, detailing a blackjack session is hard to do and would bore everyone to death. I will work on some roulette and craps sessions in the near future as well as baccarat when I take the plunge!

 

Thanks CP10, I assumed you mainly played Baccarat.. I know from my days on gamblers glen that war stories and trip reports were always a fun read, hence be being open in this thread, plus it has the added bonus, once you start expressing yourself and thoughts, it actually makes you think and re-evaluate. Anyway glad you enjoy my candor.

 

I study baccarat to death. I have plenty of ideas on how to play. And a lot are derived from my extensive roulette play. Like Patrik a lot of it can be interchanged.

What bothers me most about people who post about their play record always say they win. That’s impossible. Losing is part of the path to success. There isn’t a professional gambler on the face of this earth that has not faced adversity regularly but understands what it takes to end up on top. So for those who say they win every time they gamble are full of bulls shits as one poster would say.

I win a lot. But I also lose a lot. But I am way ahead in my play and plan to keep it that way. But sometimes the gambling powers that be are not so kind.