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Baccarat The Good, the Ugly & Human Nature

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Junket King, Apr 1, 2022.

  1. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    No preference of bet selection.
     
  2. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    B or P whatever,
     
  3. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    Ok ok, I know this thread is probs' boring the pants off a few, suffice to say, the negativity, the naysayers truly motivate me, you inspire me, so thank you. I'm the right side of the bell-curve, I'll be on the wrong side sure enough, will I?

    It was kind of ironic I accessed this site on my mobile between the shuffle, banner said, number 1 gambling forum (what a hoot), learn from the pro's and some other BS. LOL, fuck me, the soft arse behind the scene has me on a 10 minute wait between posts, constant "be respectful" messages, yeah sure, after you kiss my ass. If ya don't like it, then feel free to nuke my account, you have done it before, be my guest and do it again, like I give a toss. Had you operated this forum like you should have and clamped down on some fucking dirty HIV infected idiot calling a fellow member a cunt constantly, we wouldn't be were we are today, anyway we are where we are, I'm doing it and pulling in enough to buy this pissy board many times over, meanwhile you backed some infected loser.

    Anyway to the casino once again, this time via the Bank, a real Bank, available BR 600u lighter.....

    Just wanted to say, I am betting against something happening, each bet I place is a 50-50 proposition, therefore I should succeed and fail 50% of the time? But it's doesn't pan out like this, I'll get the odd fail here and there, the odd double fail rarely, other than that, be savvy with your MM and you will make what your stamina and self control/discipline allows you to.

    This morning I realised why my returns have been a tad disappointing, I remembered I usually run two different value strings, I've been running with the one set, been out the saddle for a while, I've forgotten more than I remember.

    Arrive 12:30, due to staffing tables don't get going until 13:50, buyin 60u. Get off to a great start, first shoe W15 L11 approx, including a couple of hedged TIE wins, yeah lost 1u TIER bets, but i don't record them, new cards, expected clumping, I dabbled with a bit of FLD. After reading the crap from soxfan I'm feeling positive, end of shoe +22u

    2nd shoe, nothing special, strong Banco shoe, people at table killing the TIE bet, end of shoe 12T's, 19P and 37B, I got hit towards the end, I shouldn't really try to "bum rush the show", but I did and it back-fired. End of shoe +13u

    3rd shoe and shoe 3A. I soon realised how slow everything was, like it was taking 2 fucking hours per shoe, nuts, I was seated in box 9, close to box 1 on another table. Where I was seated had 1 x BO left, the new shoe had 4 x BO's, not wanting to move, I played both tables. I'm thinking just a few feeler bets, but on the second table I lost my first 2 bets, won a few bets, lost a bunch more. However I was able to hedge my bets, if I lost at one table I upped the bet on the other and visa-versa, both tables were very slow, so had all the time in the world, one of the regulars was passing me my chips....

    Anyway after all that, I was +43, yeah I'm thinking 150~200% of my buyin, I'm feeling really good, the fact I was this far ahead so early added to my positivity.

    Shoe #4, another great first half shoe, then whack, something was telling me to back-off as the shoe was coming to and end, and the slogan "don't turn a good shoe into a bad shoe", but I did, hey I'm human. I felt the presence of soxfan, trying to share his HIV, yep I got hit, I ramped things up again and it back-fired, no drama, I won't be heading out the door just yet. I'm plus 23u, so I've dropped, no biggie, just disappointing. Still feeling confident, still feeling positive.

    Shoe #5 incomplete, W14 L12, while I didn't reach where I wanted to be, I ended just after 9pm, it was a slow friggin' day, +66u, (pulled 43u base units from the final shoe as I was betting bigger, to recoup from shoe 4) Just over 100% of my buyin, cool, I know I should have been bringing home 80u+, but I'm gonna forget about it, tomorrow is a new day.

    A lot of time and energy, raking more money from the casino than I did working for a living, but the later is guaranteed and risk of ruin is nil. I think that's about 8 winning sessions on the bounce Hughie, not bad for this beta limey rec' player. Nothing to get carried away with it, not until IF and When I hit 20 consect' winning sessions, then I'll congratulate myself, until then it's all in a days work.

    Here are the shoes played;

    upload_2022-4-12_0-57-44.png

    And here is a little something for my number 1 fan

    upload_2022-4-12_0-59-50.png
     
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  4. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    It's not a typical labby if you understand how JK manages his labby strings to avoid bet escalation, and he uses multiple strings at different gear ratios when he needs to recover. His approach is more aligned to a divisor method with handbrakes and gear changes.

    Of course you don't need such devices that absorb variance at the hey hey kitchen casino where the chips and markers are free.
     
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  5. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    Before i get into 2days sessions, let's consider GF.

    The banner ad says; "the number 1 gambling community, have a gambling question, post it here and our Gambling experts will answer it".
    @admin Who the fuck it gonna answer any Baccarat questions the filthy soxfan or yours truly? The person doing it, of the fucking idiot calling others a CUNT, how is the expert going to answer any questions when he is nobbled from accessing the site? Or maybe ND will answer??

    Maybe it's all to do with respect? When you fucking give it, you get it back, otherwise kiss my friggin' ass. Yours truly the best baccarat player with an online presence, second to nobody. I don't charge, I'm open how I play, how I bet, I show proof, I ask for nothing in return, but if that's not good enough and I've got to bow down to you as it's your board, well you know me being very humble and all that, it ain't ever happening, period.

    Okay back to today; I'm just not feeling it, I still venture out, walking from the car-park to the cas' I'm feeling tired, I'm feeling de-energised, and start to question is it a good idea I'm here today. I'm trying to cram in as many sessions as possible before Thursday, let's say no more about that, but it could be all over there onwards.

    I arrive 12:30 frigging tables won't open until 2pm, pricks, sometimes they open early, and if you're not there, you won't get a seat.. So off to Tesco's' for a meal deal.

    2pm we get going, still not feeling positive, maybe my bio-rhythms are not in sync, burn out. Y/day the shoes took 2 hours, 2 day they are 30mins, which is too fast, no time to think and evaluate, certainly no middle gear betting at this pace, stay low.

    End of shoe, a fat ZERO, win 8 L8, I played a degree of DBL to keep the shoe moving which lost 2u, while the shoe was way to fast, I said nothing, it's good training, don't let them know your weakness.

    2nd shoe, again, 30 mins W7 L6, end of shoe -9u, alarm bells are ringing in my head, should I bail now and knock it on the head, I wasn't feeling it before I entered the place and 2 shoes in I'm -9, decisions, decisions!!!

    Being a competitive person, I don't want to record any loss on my excel spreadsheet, I only want to record winning sessions, not losing sessions no matter how small, therefore I solider on.

    Shoe #3 W15 L13, couple of TIE wins, bit of aggressive betting towards the end has me as +17u, go home now?? 17u, nar, I've a few digits to clear form my strings, fuck the 100% profit, let's make 40u and call it an early session.
    I won a TIE bet, reduced my main wager, therefore no need to hedge the TIE, yep, it was a double TIE......

    Shoe #4 W13 L11, couple of horizontal BO's did not resolve until very late in the shoe, had me a bit concerned for a while cos placing some of those bets had me negative for the day. I was confident at least one would resolve which it did Col 7, while playing this shoe the cas opened the other table, the first shoe started;

    P
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B

    I'm gonna be all over this, so while not sitting at the tables, I'm writing down the results LOL

    Shoe #4 I'm still waiting to resolve the final BO, it might not happen, so screw it, let it go, time to move, let's milk this new shoe to the hilt and bail.

    Shoe #5 I should have come in more aggressive, 5 x BO's (rare), but bottled it, instead of betting in middle gear 2u then 3u, if lost I bet 1u then 3u but regardless lost both bets, fuck me. Not exactly what I wanted or expected, so now I've going have to bet even bigger, not exactly what I wanted to be doing.

    The 5th shoe ran, W LLW LWWWWW, see what I mean in regards the perfect start to a shoe!!! W7 L2. Imagine multiple tables, potential partner play, you are going to be raking it.....

    I cleared enough of my Labby digits which had me doing a chip count, I had hit my goal and left the table at hand 30, yeah I could have stayed and all that, nar, fuck it. after checking last night, I'm already at a personal best for consecutive winning sessions at this particular casino. Depends how I feel 2morrow for potentially my last session, which if I do go, will be a short, we'll see.

    Buyin 60u, walked out with 45u, over 400u up in 9 straight winning sessions?

    The shoes for those interested.

    upload_2022-4-12_20-59-21.png
     
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  6. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    I'm well stock up on the Guinness and cashew and eagerly await the latest, next installments of the ongoing, sky-in-the-pie, fantasy-lands, bulls-shits, talls-tale adventure of the peter keatinng, hey hey!!!!
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  7. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    Occupation:
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    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    "This member was cuaght with multiple accounts liking and supporting their own posts."
    <no he wasn't, you made an fake accusation and produced zero evidence, just like you made a lot of fake accounts on this board. You claim to have other means which you won't reveal, well that is just horseshit to somebody who has been in the IT game for over 25 years, you either have an IP match or you don't and seeing Natural 9 has never been to my gaff, you don't, so you are a liar, but fuck do I care.

    I wonder what all the gambling experts think of the said accusation, let see what the World Series Poker players think, or the BJ hall of famers, the MIT team, the Emeritus Professors, The gaming mathematicians, let's seek their opinion!!! Come on, do it. I think you get my point. some half-pence lard-ass Luxy trying to tell me to sing to his fucking tune, yeah sure, after you first kiss my ass first, ok...

    Anyway I'm not sure how many professional gamblers there on this board, considering my IT contract ended Friday April 1st, that leaves me with no means of income other than what I take from the gaming tables, until my next IT contract. Oh fuck Johno is an IT expert, no wonder I say with confidence the admin is a fuckin' liar regarding sock accounts, but i have to be careful what I say, because there will be a 1000 word and 4000 hype-link response being put together by the Luxy sausage as I type...

    The admin of this fakery is a tart, he's lambasted a few others before me like kids, oops I ain't bowing/changing for nobody, certainly not over something which was the admin fucking fault in the first place...

    Anyway back to tonight;

    Nar fuck it, be arsed posting the same old, yeah I won again (truly karlo), 10 sessions on the bounce, I left early to get home to watch the Champions League.

    This was Shoe #4, WLLWWLWWWLLWWLWLWLWL

    OK, THIS WAS sHOE #3 WWWLLLWWLLLLWWLWWWWWWLWLWLW haha

    I feel I can win profit from sessions at will Glenda (I know you read my posts), I gotta name check all you envious mofo's, however complacency is creeping into my game, I've got other things on the boil, so I'm taking at least a few days off, or maybe I should lose on purpose a'la Danielle to throw them off WTF

    Either way this was the last, rest assured I'll be doing my best and still be winning and just for my number 1 fan boy, whatever you have got HIV/AIDS I hope it is uncomfortable and intense, but of short duration. The planet, Canada, Toronto, I bet even your estranged fambo won't miss such an ugly piece of humanity that you are. Covid has taken a lot of good, decent people, yet this turd is still alive and some might think what I say is below the belt. Nar, let the dirty piece of shit die like yesterday.

    One tries to do the right thing, share info, be helpful and respectful, but there is always fucking one, always. First it was some curry muncher, gonawala narg called Rinzler, it was him who called me Peter Keating, fuck knows why (wasn't PK in some gambling movie, Rounders??) and now dumb-ass Hugo thinks that this is my real ID, just like he thinks half the members on here are Al-Relax, somebody should tell him half the members are fake and created by the admin. Then I was hounded by the dumbest of the dumb soxfan, combined with the soft-shite admin with his foolish mind games, so end of the day, fuck the lot of them, I'll win at the tables, where it counts, enjoy the bore-fest from the likes of Karl or is it kurt, maybe the k is followed by a unt? Bombas, what the fuck have you ever contributed to the gambling community other than leach? The fantasists who know it all but couldn't win a single ticket raffle, yeah get the fuck out of here.

    I made this just for you prior to cashing out; eat your heart out L.O.S.E.R

    20220413_185311.jpg
     
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  8. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    I gotta say I'm let down by this latest offering as ain't much meat on a bones. No talls tale of winning every low percentage retarded tie wager you make, and no talks of mirror the bets selection of some Oriental cat what on the hots streak. Oh well, I'm sure to copy another cat;s wagerings is INFINITELY superior to any bulls-shits bet selection yer tiny mind can come up with. Pathetic that a sixty something individual make the scene with the iq of a piece of furniture and the mentality of a two year old. But then I win on a stricts bets flat basis so my style is +++++ev, it's good to be the king, baby, hey hey.
     
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  9. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    I actually mirrored somebody who bought in for £2.5k was was soon up over £5k, best of all he was using an app (which I have the name of), nut none of it matters, alrelax was correct, you are a HIV infected homo, either that or you went to a crack house after you got whacked good and proper.

    You ain't got any++ev, kitchen table party poker shoes don't count you goof ball
     
  10. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Ah so, the plots thicken!!!! So, the mirror the Oriental cat wagers cuz he was usin some kinda app? It's true that some app can help ya count and take advantage of the zany baccarats sides-bet, but no app can help ya predict the straight b/p outcomes, hey hey.
     
  11. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    No?LMAO. Too funny! Is that because the P and B's are unpredictable? True dat! Yet the great soxfan can easily predict the outcome by just counting the P's WITHOUT an app.
     
  12. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Naser has an app BacSys, never used it and this is not an endorsement or promotion, hence no link to it or videos about it.

    The basis of the app and the patterns he exploits is based on statistical analysis, video here:

     
  13. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    This is another video that goes into the betting patterns that have the most advantage:

     
  14. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    An endless sequence of false data that can't pass even few thousands of shoes.

    as.
     

  15. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    I believe in one of his comments he said he used 100,000 8 deck shoe shuffles. I can't and won't vouch for how accurate his statistics are but I wouldn't be so bold as to claim that it's "fake". Lacking transparency perhaps.

    However I will say if you're so inclined you can stand behind your claim and do your own simulations of a trillion shoes to derive your own statistics proving your statement and then have everyone tell you that's fake too.
     
  16. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Last edited: Apr 14, 2022
  17. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Ok ok they are great helpful statistics.
    Thanks for the links!!!
     
  18. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    I definitely do not agree with his findings. After 5 Players a 55% chance of another Player (BPPPPP bet P)????? More like 48%. You will get your head handed to you betting that trigger. His results are way off on many/most of his examples.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2022
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  19. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    I'm eagerly awaiting more installment of the john-O adventure! I'm in utter awe and envy of the cat what can capture 15 units nets profit per shoe with the labby and can only wish that I too could capture 100% winner of every tie wager I make to edge the low percentage players wager, more, more I say, hey hey!!!!
     
  20. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    I cannot vouch for his numbers, and I don't disagree with what you're saying, I found it surprising too.

    Mathematically what happens when we consider larger and larger sample sizes the probability of the length of the longest streaks moves from being 4&5, to 5&6 and then 6&7. Mark Schillings famous paper shows this:

    Screenshot_20220415-075723_Drive.jpg

    The general formula for the length of runs we can expect for a sample size of length n is:

    Runs ≈ log (nq)/log(1/p)

    So for Banker p = 0.506788499 and q = 0.493211501

    If we play for 50 hands we expect to see a run of bankers:
    log(50×0.493211501)/log(1/0.506788499) ≈ 4.7

    and the run for players:
    log(50×0.506788499)/log(1/0.493211501) ≈ 4.5

    So you see it's actually higher for Bankers as we would expect.

    We can do for 200 hands and for Banker it's 6.8 and Player it's 6.5 so again tipped in Bankers favor, as expected.

    Which you will note the predicted runs length is close enough to the coin toss distribution above in the 6-7 range.

    What is more important is that variance of the predicted longest run is about 1.8 regardless of how large n actually is.

    Which is another way of saying the longest run is a very accurate prediction for random outcomes, n can be trillions of hands and the variance of the longest run calculation will still be ≈ 1.8 so within 2 of the predicted value.

    Here is the prediction intervals for a coin toss which are close enough for baccarat as already shown:
    Screenshot_20220415-081503_Drive.jpg

    So what this is saying that a maximum run of 10 covers 99% of outcomes whilst runs up to 6 represents 90% of outcomes.

    The limiting distribution looks like this and shows the mode is 6. So we would be expecting to see runs of length 6 if playing 200 hands or more.
    Screenshot_20220415-084142_Drive.jpg

    This curve shows the characteristics of random is actually very predictable.
     

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