Baccarat The Good, the Ugly & Human Nature

For sure, the larger the sample size, the longer the maximum streak becomes. I see this in my testing.

I think you mentioned that this was 100,000 8 deck shoes he was testing in the video. There is no live database that big so my guess is he wrote a software program that either has a bug in it or is not very random. If he is seeing that a streak of 5 Players has a 55% chance of going to 6, he has a big problem in his simulation.

 

Simulated shoes, he did say in a comment that he generated shoe shuffles using a montecarlo method, but I'm not sure what the source of entropy or PRNG used. As I said the exact method is not open to scrutiny (lack of transparency) so any conclusions may in fact be erroneous.

 

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly is the title of the thread, so here's what went down y/day, a utter fuck-up.

First Shoe; LW WWWWL LWLL WL WLW WWL WWWL WLWWWW WL
Fabulous start +24u

Shoe #2 LLL WLWL WW LLLLW LWLLLLW (26 P's 11 B's, guess who I'm thinking of) LWLWWLL WWWWWW W shoe ends 35P 25B
ok shoe, took extra bets here and there, +34u

Shoe #3, LW WWL LLL WWLW L LWLL WLLWWL WW
Decent, I'm now +51u

Shoe #4 at the early stage of this shoe, I'm already up over 100% of my buyin, I'm pushing it and why not...
LLWWWL LWW LLLW WLWLLL WWLLW LW then LLL LLLLLW Good Lord, that last run screwed me good and proper to say the least, now I've got a bit of catching up to do, actually a lot of catching up to do.

Shoe #5 LLLWL LLW LLWW LW W LW LLLW (no longer tracking progress, but probably negative 20 along with a re-buyin.

And so it continued, a few half shoes played, ending with;

Shoe #9 LW WLLW LW simply to tired to continue

Yeah I did manage to turn it around, into a 40u profit, this was less than my previous high mid-way through shoe #4, now at 12 consecutive wins on the bounce. The most senior boss (unfortunately) verified my cash out due to the amount, as soon as he did, went straight over to where the managers hang out and was looking at some computer screen with his colleague, which I walked past soon after. Some kind of Excel spreadsheet with bar charts running left to right, coloured green and red , as I didn't want to be clocked eye balling the screen, moved on to the exit. IF it's what I thought it was (not absolute certain), W's vs L's, on a per customer basis, all he would see via my name is green.

Let's say, my 6th sense has me ringing alarm bells. I've been in this situation before closer to home, hence the "now lifted" concocted ban in 2011. "He's not gambling, rather treating this place as a business", "taking the piss". I'd never profess to having beaten the game, far from it, I don't profess to being unbeatable, more of a case of, being hard to beat.

There you have it, did I fuck up, absolutely, 100%. Not because I didn't quit at +100%, it was still early and I felt fresh, no problem carrying on, I can manipulate and ride out losses. After losing 3LIAR in shoe #4, I went in too early to recoup and walked straight into another 5LIAR with basically no Labby manipulation and it cost me dearly. I plead guilty, it was a stupid move, when you've lost a few bets combined with a degree of eagerness to keep pushing ahead, you tend to make bets that you shouldn't be otherwise making. Despite the win, I'm super pissed, not happy about it, I feel hard done by, my solace is, I'm fairly confident I made more being in the real-world and doing it at some kitchen table.

The plan is Sunday night I'm staying closer home, to see if I can get some local action, it's bloody ridiculous having to wait until 10pm in the hope you might get a game, playing through the wee hours of the night, sod that. Or go back to where I usually frequent, assess the vibe and if necessary don't cash out, start bringing chips home. While my wins are dwarfed by some of Chinese players, they aren't winning on a consistent basis, whereas at this moment in time, I am. From a casinos prospective, I'm just as much as a hindrance as any big five figure winner, somebody I reckon they would rather do without.

 

Junketking, are you sure it’s wise hanging on to chips rather than cashing out? Here in skipptophia I have been caught out ( number of years ago ) twice holding large chips value due to the Asian fake $500 , $1000 and $100 being circulated. I had been away overseas, both occasions , return to play after a year, was putting my purples up to be informed there are NO $500 chips in circulation anymore. I’m like your fkidding me . It was no sir please come this way . Short story I got my money back, they verified the purple and strawberries. Then a few years later it happened on the black, shame as it was a beautiful black now it’s a diarrhoea green black now. Just saying to stay away from problems , cash out. Cheers

 

I knew about the fake $500 chips used in Adelaide, I used to like those over the $1k chips, as it wasn't so severe if you lost/dropped one. Which I actually did one time, losing $500 out of my trackie pocket was rough.

Many Chinese have odds chips in their handbags, here there everywhere, I'll be alright, I wouldn't hold on to them for too long, cashing out when more favourable staff are on duty, or if I know I won't be going back for a while, maybe when some grump manager was on duty (been there done that). I did that once at another local casino who pissed me off regarding opening a table, "come back in an hour", one hour later, table still not open. So I had been saving my chips and one night I went to play, they fucked me around yet again with the opening of a table, so I said don't worry about it and cashed out. They were gobsmacked when they saw all the chips I had ha ha, the look on his face when called over to verify, priceless.

Next time I played there, one on one with dealer, a manager sat at the end of the table and recorded every bet I made and each win, at the end of the shoe said "you're such and such up", he was out a few chips, but close enough.

A Grosvenor casino in the North West was held up many years ago and the gang took a load of pink £100 chips. The casino took all £100 chips out of circulation, still over 5 years later, they will only give punters £100 chips in lots of ten increments to take to the cashiers cage. Prior to the robbery I had about £8k of them on my mantel piece, thank christ I cashed out, avoiding trying to prove I had won them, as opposed to them being from the stash of genuine chips stolen in some robbery.

 

@JK. Wow. What a grind that is. Reminds me of the old days. These days I lose interest after three or four shoes. Back then as now I've always had time to play a few times a week. 10 or 15 shoes a week more than enough to keep your sanity and have a life outside of gambling.

It would be nice to see the shoes. My bet selection, like yours I'm sure, has always been fairly mechanical. So a person can get a feel for how well that session would have been. It wasn't always like this but losing more than four in a row for me is pretty unusual.

Anyway good on you.

@Punkcity. I can never figure out who's more paranoid me or the casino. LOL. When I was playing Blackjack I was taking large denomination chips home. There was some problem with the $500 chips through theft or something or other. One night when I walked in and sat down the floor came over and asked me where the $500 chips were. That really blew my mind. I don't know how they knew that I didn't cash them in.

 

In Mississippi some casinos will not cash out a large amount of chips until they call the pit to verify that you actually played in the casino. There are signs up saying that casino checks cannot be used as tender outside the casino. Sam's Town Tunica, Pearl River Philadelphia are the main two that I experienced. Maybe Hollywood, I cannot remember.

 

So if a friend owes you some money and tries to pay you in casino chips from Sams Town Tunica I would ask for the cash instead.

 

"It would be nice to see the shoes." << unable to quote properly as the admin/owner thinks I'm a child and has me on the naughty step

Here are Shoes 1 & 2, which gave me a good start to the session, Both shoes I took extra bets, as others were losing, they were leaving the table moaning, probs what made it worst was seeing me win so many bets, so it caused issues for keeping the shoes going.


Shoe #2 a heavy Punto shoe, @ col 6 it was running 26 v 11, which caused even more bet Banco only elderly Chinese regulars, oh and I cut the shoe, because nobody else was around, haha

Shoe #4 the damage shoe


Everything started fine, no-bet the first 8 hands, Column #D, don't recall why, maybe just looking for an excuse to make a bet, so I lose decisions 2,3,& 4 and win 5 for a column deficit of -1u.

Column E, WLWLLL, I switched to FLD trigger after top 4 hands and ran straight into a column of 7 chops. (-5u)
Column F, WWLLW, after top 4 streak, switched to AS, which took me all the way, +7u (strange to get 2 triggers like that back to back)
Column G, LW for +4, again at this stage, all is well.
Column H, a repeat of column G, the nemesis, no biggie, it happens, back to back is rare LLL for -13u

Column I, Ok this is where my head fell off, haha, instead of no betting the first at least 3 hands at the top. Never in literally thousands and thousand of shoes played have I ever seen a 1/128 pattern repeat three times consecutively, that would be something like a 1 in over 2m. 128^3

Well it didn't repeat but as good as did, LLLLLW, the winning bet row 6 cancelled losing bets 1,2 & 4 only.

Very rare to see a 15 hand block repeat like that, I've seen 12 hand blocks many times, but 15!!!!! (yellow border).

Had I played at the latter shoes at level 3 (top gear), I maybe would have recouped faster,

Shoe #5 LLLWLLLWLLWWLWWLWLLW However, simply didn't wanna do that, so grinded back the draw-down in 2nd gear, so it took longer, exposed me longer, well you know how it goes.


Forgot to mention the Fortune 8 was won Thursday gone (I wasn't there), 12 Bankers in a row and you have the button in front of you for a £6.5k payout.

My god, it's so peaceful, I can hear the birds chirping.

 

@fathead I love playing Tunica haven't been there in a few years. But I played there a lot.

 

Always wanted to go to Tunica for years, but it's a nine hour drive and I never did it. I will probably never go into another brick and mortar casino again now that my state has legalized online gambling. It would be like everything is in slow motion stuck in quicksand at a B&M casino.
.

 

So, I guess that the only thing better than real world, legit baccarats talks is bulls-shits, made up fantasy-world baccarats talks, hey hey.

 

Like the lady in Cortina d Ampezzo said " Never bull shit a bull shitteer " .

 

I played quite a bit at Gold Strike and Horseshoe. They tore down Resorts and are in process of demolishing Sheraton/Roadhouse next to the Horseshoe. It has been a while.

 

Gold Strike is probably the nicest one (MGM). Horseshoe (Caesars) has good gaming (100X odds on Craps) but hotel is sort of run down. Whole area is sort of run down really. Biloxi is nicer.

 

I don't live in the USA but I thought the 100x odds was mostly a gimmick due to very low max bet limits. Is that typical or do they allow larger bets?
Here craps is a dying game and the very few casinos we have, actually have the game. My local we can play any bet to to a max of $4k and with an agreement you can get $8k, which permits up to a $16k lay or don't pass odds bet on the 4 or 10 to win $8k. But wait for it, it's traditional craps, 2x odds only, no carnival bets like ATS etc and no hops, but the sucker bets do have relatively nicer odds (still bad IMO), 33 to 1 on the 2/12, 7.5 to 1 on any craps, 16 to 1 on yo and ace-duece, and 9 to 1 on hard 6/8 and 7.5 to 1 on hard 4/10. Yeah we have $0.50 and $2.5 chips due to the payouts and vig calculated by rounding down to nearest $10

 

In Mississippi every casino has at least 10x odds, and 20x times is common. At that time (when I was playing a lot of craps) you could find $5 minimum tables so I would put $5 on Pass or Don't Pass with $100 odds. Later I tried $25 on the line with $500 odds. The house edge would be close to zero on those bets. I did see a fellow betting $5 on the Pass line as well as Come with $500 odds on each at the Horseshoe one session that I played. I think the max was usually $10,000 although some places $5000 or even $3000.

The lowest house edge that I ever had was at the IP Biloxi. They gave me a couple of hundred dollars in promotional chips. I asked if I could get them in $5 chips and they complied. So I had this tray of $5 promo chips at the table. I would put a $5 promotional chip on the Pass or Don't Pass Line with $100 odds which was zero house edge because of the promo chips.

At the Gold Strike Tunica they have the All Tall Small and you can bet up to $50 on each. If you hit all 3 it is a $10,000 win at that level and I have seen people hit it. The only time I ever bet it was once I saw this controlled shooter hit it twice. The box person was already warning him about something he did not like about the way he was rolling. The next time he got the dice I put $50 $50 $50 on the ATS, I would have won $10,000 if he hit it again. The box person gave the shooter a hard stare. The shooter then immediately sevened out and then stared me right in the eye for like 10 seconds. I just smiled at him. I never did know if he sevened out on purpose or if he thought I jinxed him.

 

Sounds like nice conditions there.

That ATS is a nice carnival bet especially when there's just a 10 or 4 left, can lay against it and get a nice win-win situation.

 

Yes, I have seen people do that, lock in $2000 or whatever in an opposing bet.

 

Wow teach me JK...

Nice report.
I hope you have the time to play and post my WL string from.my just completed trip. I will update my trip report soon. I'm interested in how you are betting, I know about the JK fibo regresion.that you explained to me a.while.back,.but Im.honestly a.more.conservative kitchen tester...then u.

I wonder if that is.what you are.doing.or your.labby strings sorry I'm too lazy to search now if u have updated your methods

Anyway your casinos sound restrictive..lol don't open till noon? Lol

In the land of the orientals (as soxfun) likes to call them they run hundres of tables 25 hours a day.. every day ..

Sorry if you posted... Whatbjd your Unit? $5 USD ... I'm striving to get that high in my kitchen....