Baccarat The Good, the Ugly & Human Nature

I wouldn't be so bold to criticize people willing to share their methods as JK did,

BTW, are you able to show us (even distantly) how your 'Banker betting selection' will get the best of it itlr?

We are all ears.

as.

 

Junky ...

After reading your old thread this is how I bet this morning.. attempting to copy your 7 columm KoKonut Method... Got lucky and won kitchen units only (nobu kitchens)

Photoshoped pics proves it...

Junkys Bastardized ZigZag method

 

I agree Asymbakgay...

https://www.gamblingforums.com/thre...no-fighting-u-too-just-kiss-and-makeup.23918/

 

Kiss and make up?? YUK, I don't wanna be catching mucho Hepatitis .

Last night at the casino, some Chinese woman was saying she is going to be travelling, Singapore, Malaysia and Melbourne, man I was so friggin jealous, would love to do that trip. Gentings in Singapore is the biggest casino I've even been in, you have to show ID to get in and OUT!!! Alas I can't.

I'll look later for a post I made elsewhere, which explains the premise of what I do, "IF" I find it, I'll post it here.

 

Don't worry Porky, he is just a useless good for nothing troll.

The habitual tester, LOL



Hmmmm, you can get 9-1 for the Tie in the USA


Some info I posted on another site.

We should also be aware that if we had a large enough data set, then no matter what we test, the result is going to be"egalite", in other words "equal". I'm under no illusion that if ran my current mode of play against 2^70 (1,180,591,620,717,410,000,000 hands), the expected outcome should be 50/50. Yet that doesn't tell the whole story, if my loss strings are averaging 4LIAR, with the odd 7, then discipline, composure and a risk adverse MM approach will pull you through, if you keep your head and appreciate what is happening is a freak occurrence and you should not expect to see the same for the rest of your session.

If you want to read about a proven edge, that ain't going to happen, not now, not ever, as it simply can not exist relating to betting B or P (excludes the side bets), TT's prove this conclusively.

I will provide an outline on this public forum, shouldn't be too difficult to fathom the rest. If a binary sequence has odds of 1/127 of occurring, what are the odds of that 1/127 sequence repeating in single shoe consisting of 70 hands (approx 7 instances of 1/127). Pretty slim I would hazard a guess, yet have already run into a shoe were this happened 3 times within 70 hands, then you can play 20 shoes and never see a single repeat of any 127/1 shot.

That doesn't tell the whole story. Only a novice would risk 7 bets in order to win a single bet. You need to be a bit savvy about it, there is no substitute than actually being at a gaming table, experiencing the rough to smooth-wall the rest. At the same time you don't want to be sitting at the table against shoes that present no bet opportunities (BO's), which my own testing has sometimes shown, or only bet once or twice for an entire shoe.

Yes, I occasionally test to determine worst case scenarios, so that I can anticipate LIARS, while appreciating if I ran it through a set of binary tables, the result would be 'egalite' all things being equal. Which would be perfect in the real world, because anything that returns a 50% strike rate is ideal for a negative progression, alas it is LIARS which are bane of all systems.

People need to focus more on controlling LIARs, if a binary sequence has an mathematical expectation of occurring once per 1024 B/P decisions (approx once every 14.6 shoes). Then what is the expectation of a 127/1 sequence repeating within 70 hands? (don't go be a novice thinking, oh I'll just bet the opposite), any staking plan won't handle such type of play.

Risking 7 bets to win 1 single bet, is not a good option, unless you are extremely clever with your staking options, such as running multiple wagering options, maybe at different stake levels.

Because LLLLW, LLLW, LLLLW for example,, means the bet selection is working, it is not failing, yet the win to loss ratio is horrendous. Implementing virtual losses, cuts down the number of bets placed in a negative expectation game, requires more patience from the players prospective, although if you have a big bankroll, you can circumvent this by incorporating two games into one and decent manipulation of the ratios between the 2 staking levels

Acutely aware cards are just innate pieces plastic that have no memory, if you encounter the shoe from hell (been there done that), then how many losing bets will such an freak event cost you? Once you sort that out, then introduce more bet options, so you are not sitting on your hands for most of the game and make sure your staking plan is up to scratch, because mathematically there can never be an edge only expectation.

 

Thanks to the "controlling" disrupting crap from the team behind the scene, for the sake of transparency let me divulge what transpired on Thursday and get my thread back on track.
Not as flush as I usually am due to a trip to the bank the day prior, yet still more than enough BR so I thought (700+ base units).
Heading to the casino, unlike the last visit where I felt energised, I wasn't feeling that way today, a combination of things, including the crap that goes on with this childish web-site doesn't help. The session is now not so fresh but here goes, hold on to your diphers Karl.
Buyin, unknown probably 60u.
To save time I won't upload images of the actual shoes, but I do have them if anybody wishes to question my integrity.
First Shoe; only 2 x horizontal BO's, one of which did not resolve, LWLLLWLLLLWWLWLWWLLLWLLWL some of those W's were at the table minimum none BO bets, therefore did not cancel level 2 losing bets, to cut a long story short, after another unknown buyin, I end the shoe negative 61 units. My Fibo was -19 units and the initial 20 2nd level Labby string was at (I've no idea), but I needed to recoup 8 units in top gear.
I quit this shoe around hand 55, I came back and checked the hands I skipped, I would have lost a further 3 "step up" bets.

2nd Shoe, despite having a 700+ base bet Bankroll, I decided to visit the cage and add to that another 400 units, while I had my doubts doing this, in hindsight it was a wise move.
Base bets for whatever, and Top gear betting;
LWW (base)
L1 L2 L4 (top gear), no problem, very confident to snare wins next round of betting
L6 L1 L2 (jesus wept, it was like driving a V8 with your foot flat down and watching the petrol gauge move to zero, fuck me, rebuyin, rebuyin, rebuyin, I don't recall the sequence or frequency, but I'm all in, literally... Basically everything, the full whack 1020 base units, I'm now in the "give it all back in one session" territory Karl. I don't recall ever having bought for so much in a UK casino (image to prove this is Real World Casino Action not some fake believe shit.
Still on 4th column round of betting; W9 L3 the W9 is one my my biggest placed bets in many many years, lose that and would have been "good night Irene". I squeezed a picture and 3-side for a winning N8.
Next round of betting; under pressure, stress written all over me, can't hide that, W7 W4, thank fuck, money coming back.
Then WWLLLLWWLLLWWWLWWWL (these were all insignificant base bets).
Ok end of Shoe #2, no idea where I was at, I usually don't count chips, so had more pressing business to take care of, I had just switched to "Top Gear" in a speed trap and got burnt.
With my arse feeling a bit flappy I switched back 2nd level betting, I think the target was 66 units, Shoe #3 was much better but for "I don't recall" reason, got hit trying to bust through a brick wall using a Fibo which didn't work, losing a 55u bet.
End of Shoe, 2nd level goal of 66, down to 58, Fibo I'm not sure, negative 157u, I have to transfer those to 2nd level, no other choice.
Shoe #4, aggressive, aggressive 2nd level betting, LLLWLLWWLWLWLWWLWLLLLWWW (again some where base table minimum bets).
I won't go through the 10 shoes played, basically I was chasing 2nd level units, the running count went as thus;
At one stage 66, down to 58, 40, 41 (kept going up due to Fibo), 32, 19 and finally 20 (transferring from one-side to the other), then comes Shoe #10.
I'm sure the casino sent this bozo in deliberately, he was slow as fuck, it did my head in, I had Labby strings of 20 which actually would have given me a decent profit, got that down to 13, I would have stayed and played longer, but not with this fucking idiot. Yeah Karlo I walked with a 26u profit, just a rough night at the office, the 1000+ unit buyin', not happy to say it but I needed it, I used it, fuck me, karlo bi-monthly government cheque on the turn of some cards, now that takes some KokOnUts.
Also the casino has stopped giving me points, haha, it's only small change, but does add up and comes in useful say when HEDGING THE 4% TIE, as I know the infected troll loves to read my posts. So I questioned it and said "only loser get points" seeing I had so much on the felt, suit gave me £40 in play chips and said they will keep an eye on it (a'la admin, dishonest bell-end).

The image above karlo is at the end of Shoe #2, The Fibo is 27 (negative 17), The Top Gear string started at 8 and ended at 3 (+5 recovered), the 2nd level bets started at 18 and ended at 34? or something like that, the 3 outstanding top gear bets where converted to 2nd level bets, work harder and longer than take further risk.

Completed another session Sat, initial buyin 80u, which soon increased to 200u, basically I can't place 2nd level bets with a 60 or 80u base bet buyin, 7 shoes 83 unit profit. Again from the session above, 10 shoes played, a massive buyin, zero points. Again I questioned it, they apologised and this time gave me £100 in play chips, which was cool, useful for "HEDGING THE TIE at 4.4% HE", bet 2nd level, use one of my chips and some play money.
I said way way back in this thread, winning 10 sessions on the bounce ain't jack-shit, winning 20, now we are talking. Wel I ain't gonna be doing that, as I lost session 13, however I'm now 18-1, which if I may say so myself is pretty specular and something special, wouldn't you agree Karl, bombas??
As for the compulsive lair tag, I've interacted with many behind the scenes over the years, people know what I'm about, they have been members of my various boards, as my good Ozzie friend once described me, "I'm too honest", alas if the silly admin wishes to play his anal games on this factional cents earning web-site, well let them have get his jollies, they are a bunch of idiots labelling one of the best Bacarat players as such, it says more about their extreme controlling jerk-off behaviour than me. Nothing, nil, has ever been proven, long term members can see that, if ya can't, then I suggest you question your envy and jealously as it's clouding your judgement. But hey, what the fuck do I care, I'm here to assist all serious Baccarat players, but some can kiss my ass, you know where to find me.

 

Encountered a most rare beast at the casino last night, I seen them before, but they are so rare you kinda forget they exists, a 2,048,383/1 event. I was doing rather well prior to the shoe, up just over 50 units, aiming for 80+, combination of nervousness, frustration, tiredness, couldn't bring myself to "go for it", and crawled back from a 200u drawdown to a final 85u loss. Wanna get it back later, but I need to re-energise a bit, so maybe it will wait until Wed, hope I'm not infected with HIV, talking of which, some young black dude slowly becoming a regular at the tables, well spoken, presentable, educated and actually at a casino gambling real money in the real world, hey fucking hey.

He has bigger balls than me, no fear betting 3 pinks, the guy has money ya know, as in a decent wedge, not many of my fans can say that, certainly not my biggest fanboy, he commented "I've so much patience an incredible amount of patience".



Yes your internet buddies totally agree with you Karl, as do I

 

I guess if you got enough bankroll you're not hitting table limits can't lose forever.

The curious mind want to know. If labby strings are supposed to reduce bankroll what kind of strike rate you have to get to be down 200 units?

 

A lot of that -200u base unit damage is done, betting in 2nd gear. -200u is more accurately -40u, lose a 11u bet is equal to losing 55u base units.
I'm in the habit of quoting base units.

The W/L ratio for the 7th shoe was;

LWW (all base units),

all 2nd level betting unless stated
LL L(base), L W(tie) L
LW
LLLLL
W

Shoe what I played of it before quitting;

PPPP
B
P
B,BB
PP
B
PP,
BB
PP
B
PP,PPP
B
PPP,
BB
PP
B
PP,
B
PP
BB

Had a shoe last night start with an 8P streak followed by an 8B streak, table too busy, couldn't get near it, such a rare event, certainly for this joint, a real MM which I couldn't get to and couldn't be doing with back-betting either.

 

Always enjoy the latest installments of the john-O greatist sh er hits. The boy sure spin the good yarn and fanciful tale changing up bets selections and progressions on a fly, that bit would give me the headache. Oh well, bulls-shits, fanatsy-land, sky in a pie made up baccarats talks provid tops-notch entertainment. And Zeus knows I'd love to know where ya can fi9nd baccarats actions where the tie give ya 9-1, hey hey!

 

Yeah you should, then you could emulate this,

Sure beats spending months and months, years even kitchen table testing.

 

This thread is called "The Good, the Ugly & Human Nature", so this is whatcha gonna get.

Two days off to re-energise, goal target base units prior loss of 85u, plus at least another 80u for what I should I won on my last trip.

Table open nice and early at noon (I wonder why, not for me, but for some other dude, I wonder why, casino psychology 101).

A young Chinese dude in his early 20's hands over a black plaque worth £5k, I can't say I've seen one of those before, I buyin for nothing as I have chips from Sunday.

Not paying that much attention to the other dude other than watching him sort his pinks into £1k stacks, again he was using a app, all this app is doing is displaying all the roads, which on this table the score board doesn't do.

To cut details short, decent enough shoe for me, the Chinese dude turned that £5k plaque into £10k profit, WOW, off he goes to the cage, another dude turned up who I speak to a bit, I said you should have been here for the last shoe, we get yakking, it's his mate, he told me he won £10k last night, so now he is £20k up, fuck me. This is why the casino was open early, they were counting on his greed factor.

The young dude re-appears and goes to another table, later to be joined by his GF both of whom repeatedly get told off for trying to over come the table max. I'm on another table doing my thing and paying no attention.

I've played 3 or 3.5 shoes and I'm up approx 85u (base units) and decide to take a break and go for something to eat. I've got 19 second level units to win and I'm done.

I come back, Shoe #4

Starts with; PPPPPPB and my eyes light up, this is the money maker shoe, gonna be lots of BO's.

Except the next 7 hands went, PPPPPPB,, which resulted in; LLLLLLL FUCK ME.

Not exactly panic stations, but i'm gonna have to dig deep here, LW, then BBBBBBB which results in LLLL the last 2 bets where in top gear.

LLW, LLWW, W LLLW, W

Ok, screwed, so fucked up I bet 60 base units on the wrong side, which otherwise would have been a winning bet.

The goal target of 19 had now gone to 88, Jesus Wept. Trip to cage to for more ammo. I convert the 88 to 22 top gear units, I'll aim to get that down to say 10, then convert back to 2nd level betting.

Gonna be a long haul, meanwhile on the other table, the young Chinese dude is killing them, he was at one point +£27k, I mean how fucking much do you want to win, is it a game to clean out the casino, that ain't never gonna happen. Over heard a dealer saying to a suit, how much he was up, I quipped, "you better feed him then, to keep him at the table". £27k sterling, the fucking idiot, honestly it's not like he has anything to spend it on, he's on a student visa, so won't be going on a cruise, down payment for a house, nice car, it's meaningless to him and a fortune to others.

His win rate was pretty decent, so I asked his mate "which Roads are they playing", he said they are using all of them, hmmmm, none of this, is the shoe producing chaos and do I bet chaos to continue!!! So me thinks, he's got lucky due to power of bank roll, the Roads are quite complex, I seriously doubt they were utilising them as intended.

Back to my own action, I'm crawling back my draw-down, shoe 6, another streaky shoe gave me a but of grief, I'm really surprised how so many shoes are producing long streaks.

Shoe #6, L1, L2, W3 L2, L3. L2, W3, L2, L3. W7, L3. W6, L2. W3, W1

Then I converted to 2nd level, too much mental pressure to keep this up. Don't recall the target, possibly 40u, written as;
2-2-2-2-2 times 4, first bet 2u increment losses into the string, next bet 3u then left and right figures.

Shoe 10, I've recaptured my draw-down, now aiming for profit, Shoe 10 had other ideas, I knew, I knew I should have bailed this bastard of a shoe, got hit and partially sucked in by a guy I normally chat to on my left, base units, L1, l2, L3, L6, L9, L15, L25, L40, I stopped he slapped down a £1k chip and lost that. You couldn't make this shit up, scribble, scribble, 2nd level target is now 50.

Have to move tables, now the fatigue is rapidly starting to kick in, I won 8u playing half a shoe and quit due to lack of players, I wasn't about to flat bet any shoe betting 2 base units. It's not turning out to be a good week in all honesty, 2 back to back losses, 85u and last night 60u. These are fairly small easily recoupable, except now I'm getting real wary of these streaky shoes, overtly streaky racks havoc with what I do. As for 2nd guessing any shoe, yeah I'm dabbled with that, what crock of shit and mental anguish that can be. Looking back, Shoe 4 maybe I should have walked from the table, but once you have losing bets, you feel committed.

Maybe others are thinking what I'm thinking, one of these big draw-downs I ain't gonna be so fortunate with the recoup? Well there is a method in all this madness, I have goal targets which I've set myself, I achieved one last FRi, but undid it on the Sunday. They are not that high, but these two last losses don't help, once these are reached, which I wanted to achieve by this time next week, I'm done, everything is getting banked and I'm taking time off. Not sure if targets are gonna be met.

The young Chinese dude, for some unknown reason got sucked into continually betting (as much as £3k per hand), against the continuance of a very long P streak and gave it all back. Can't you believe that? Un-fucking-believable, Keeping him at the cas', him having no goal target or appreciation of money, there you have it, it's all about the action. I watch some of these dudes, in their early 20's, their legs are up and down like friggin' jack hammers, brains awash with serotonin, they have no idea how the game has literally consumed them and how addicted they have become.

 

With out those fools the casinoverse would go broke, I used to ridicule them at the table year and years ago , but now I offer them encouragement, tell them that was just unlucky or that dealer is notoriously strong and difficult to beat etc.

No dumb rich show ponies = no casinoverse for me to make money from.

Next time encourage them junket. Lol

 

This! 100% agree...

 

Thanks

Nice writeup and good update, good luck on making your goals and closing out and taking a break.

Are you sure that guy using all the roads on his app was not PunkCity?
Did he have one or two ears? Lol

 

"The goal target of 19 had now gone to 88, Jesus Wept."

Stuff like this makes me constantly realize why I went to playing for just one unit.
I'm way too old to play the hard way. I've always been too old to play the hard way. There's absolutely no emotion in the way I play now and that's how I like it. I have a real zen attitude now towards playing. Ever see a zen master get emotional? You never will. In fact that would make a great book, the Zen of Gambling.

 

yeah it also boils down to a personality thing and the reason WHY you are playing etc.

I beiieve Junky plays for the challenge. Of course he hates to lose but it seems the challenge of can he win and claim to be the best at the KoinFlipz is what drives him.... maybe i'm wrong, but its a similar thing that drives me.

Do you only do one bet win or lose and leave? or do you have a stoploss until you reach the +1?

yoyoyo [removed]

 

No. I play until I win one unit which is my goal amount for that game. Most of the time I win on the 1st bet. To be fair this is only at online casinos because I haven't been to a brick-and-mortar casino since 2019 because of covid. I don't know how I would play in a brick-and-mortar casino cuz I'll probably never go to one again, why would I when I have 13 casinos in my state that offer live play. Going to a brick-and-mortar casino now is an extreme inconvenience. Time-consuming to get there, and once you're there the play is super slow compared to online. I'm lucky if I see 30 spins an hour at a roulette table at a B&M casino. I typically see 90 spins an hour online. I only play for one reason, to make money. It's like having a job, you're typically there just to make money. You don't hang out after your job is over because you love it so much. You spend as little time there as possible. If I can make my goal with one win my job is done. If you're playing for other reasons than making money you need to discuss that with your shrink. You need to find a less expensive hobby that satisfies that inner craving to be a loser that you fulfill with gambling.

 

To be fair to the admin I had to double verify that i liked spikes post too... First time that happened, normally only on Junkys posts.

So.what is your MM? Do you have a stop loss?
Martingale? Lol

Your unit size must be big enough to make that style of play worthwhile.

I get your shrink remark and we all have to identify why we play.

I don't think I have an inner craving to be a.losser, I hate to lose.

But maybe I want to lose and don't know it .

Or maybe it's Maybelline?

 

Playing the 7 hands as a series back to back is 10 attempts per shoe and the probability of seeing the nemesis pattern is 1/128. The probability of seeing it at least once in a single shoe is 7.54%, at least twice 0.26% and three times or more 0.005% (that's 1 in 18,209).

But after playing about 12,622 shoes you have pushed your luck to it being a 50% chance of seeing it fail 3 times in one shoe, and after playing just 5239 shoes you have played enough that it's a 1 in 4 chance of having seen 3 fails in a shoe.

Unless probability of an event is in the hundreds of millions to billions, those 1 in thousands events can show up far more often than we would like.

That's why commercial aviation requires high reliability for components in excess of 1 in a billion and then regular maintenance intervals to inspect and replace components as every hour of operation gets you closer and closer to a component failure.