Baccarat The Good, the Ugly & Human Nature

I've played well over 5000 shoes online using this method, plus a few thousand in a B&M casino. I've encountered a few triple repeats of a 7 hand sequence in 9 trials, alas they are extremely rare. The probability of seeing "it" at least once, can't exist, as the nemesis pattern doesn't exist until after it has occurred. If any dynamic 7 hand sequence repeats anywhere in 9 trials (I don't get 70 hands playing B&M shoes once Ties are factored in), I lose 4 bets. There is also the strong possibility those losses would be interspersed with winning bets.

I've previously explained it another way; place 128 numbered balls into a bag, remove a ball and record it's number, return the ball to the bag and select another ball. Repeat this 9 times, if you choose the same number more than once in 9 trials, then expect 4 losses in a row.

 

Your experience is what I would expect, given 8000 shoes seeing it 3 fails happen 3 times is still over 1%

To put that in context a ball falling in a particular roulette pocket is 2.7% and that's not surprising.

Anything with a probabilty more certain than 1 in a few hundred million is going to be witnessed more than you would expect.

I understand the ball in bag analogy.

It's still a pattern or sequence selected randomly, for example, based on the first seven hands in shoe.

What matters is that there are 127 out of 128 winning/neutral combinations and 1 out of 128 as the losing nemises pattern.

Doesn't matter what the pattern is, any pattern will do and if it is seven hands long ignoring ties it will happen roughly 1 in 128 and you're tempting fate up to 9 times per shoe.

The actual probability will come down to the specific event probabilities multiplied together as P and B have slightly different probabilities therfore a specific event sequence will be slightly less probable the more P's it has.

If you want the mathematically least likely event then just always use 7 P's as the nemises.

 

If you have a high hit rate flat bedding why would you need MM. Even if you lose the 1st bet you're going to get one unit ahead very soon. It seems like I'm always explaining this, but like I said if you're there to make money this is the only way you can play that makes sense. If you have a career in time management if somebody hires you to examine their work environment the time management person will trim it down to the bare bones. He will have you doing only what's necessary to reach your goal. If what you're doing in a casino is more than that, then never complain when you lose because you aren't there just to make money you're there for giggles and thrills. Playing the way I do is extremely boring and extremely non thrilling and extremely efficient.

Except most people don't want to know why they play. They think they just want to win when that's not the case at all. They want to win, but just as much they want that thrill of walking the line between winning and losing and not knowing what's going to happen. I enjoy that feeling too but only when it's on my couch in front of the big screen watching a well-made movie where I have no skin in the game. Paying real money for that thrill is what keeps psychiatrists in business.

 

Setting stop-win/stop-loss goals is dumb, nonsensical, chickens-shit, scared, loser recreational player foolishness. And it is especially nosensical to set 60/80 units nets profits win goal with an inefficient labby style that at most gonna give ya a couple units nets profits per shoe, longs-t5erm, hey hey.

 

Not if you're in the casino only to make money. Then it's the only thing that makes sense. If you're there to have fun and get your adrenaline pumping you aren't there just to make money you're there for entirely different reasons. You're there for the same reason people go on all those frightening rides at amusement parks, which you couldn't get me on if you paid me. Lots of people have a death wish and they take it with them every time they go to the casino.

 

Whatever amount you allocate as a session bankroll should be the stop loss and what you're prepared to lose. No point having it there if you're never intending to use it.

Separate session bankroll from overall bankroll.

Win goals/targets and time limits do matter.

Whatever method you play you don't play until you expire and die, it's going to be some number of hours or minutes.

Given you have a limit on your time you should have an understanding of the probability of hitting your target. Sure you can shoot for the moon every session but it's unlikely you will get there, so what is the optimal profit and probability for the number of bets you can play in your session?

There will be a practical win goal that optimises your time, profit and the probability of reaching it. Professional players will understand this curve intimately and know when it's the optimal point to hit the cage.

 

Nope, if you got a true winning style then that style gonna be worth so many units profits per shoe, average in the long term. Just set a limit as far as many shoe yer gonna play per day, and walk after you play yer set number of shoe up, down or even. Stop-win, stop-loss is a stupid as trendings, hey hey.

 

Don't look now but you just set a stop/win stop/loss for yourself. The very thing you say not to do.

 

Yer bein obtuse, spikey. Putting a logical limit as to how many shoe or hour yer gonna play makes sense but putting a stop-win/stop-loss as far as units is stooooooopid, hey hey.

 

what soxfan says is true because he has a simple flat bet method that has a positive expectation over the house. So it's impossible for him to lose.

 

He should be able to compound at his win rate percentage and bet at table limits by now.

 

He should visit Asia or Skippytopia, the Baccarat limits are up to $500k per bet in VIP gaming lounge and a bit more in exclusive invitation only private rooms. Even in VIP they accommodate your personal security team, bagmen and auditors when you're a serious cat.

 

Is EXACTLY the same as having stop/win stop/loss and you know it. I say potato you say potatoe. You cannot give me a single reason why it makes any logical sense to play longer than making one unit. Every single reason you could give would have nothing to do with making money and have everything to do with something else besides money. People who live in the wild and off the land go hunting everyday to put meat on the table and that's the only reason. Almost everybody else hunts for every reason except putting meat on the table. They say that's what it's for but it's really for the thrill they get out of hunting. Gambling is no different. I only want to put money in my pocket, I have no use for what the rest of gambling represents.

 

Sorry if I missed it, do you bring 10 or 20 units and just quit once you are plus 1? You must have an amount, or maybe the better question is how many units(most) have you been down before you got your 1 unit profit and gone home with money in your pocket, also have you shared your unit level? $100,$500,$1000 etc..

Ignore if.too personal.

I want to get to that point too maybe $500 unit would do it for me..
. But then it goes back to your psych question .. what will i do the rest of the day? Fish? Ladyboy hunt? Kangaroo hunt Lol.

Maybe the $10 face up bacarats... KoinFlipz etc.

 

Yes where I have been playing the $100 minimum tables have anywhere between $10,000 to $60,000 maximums.

But if you move to the $500 minimums the maximum also increase, I have seen $100,000 at the $500 minimums but haven't really checked the maximums, I'm sure the Max's can easily go to $200,000 if you play $1000 minimums etc...

I have had players(Koreans, Russians) come donate at my table and betting anywhere between $10,000 to $30,000 a hand while I'm grinding my $100 bets.

My table is normally the $100 minimum $60,000 maximum at that casino.

I'm sorry I meant at that kitchen table casino.....

 

I'm sure he will own a casino soon.

Says he makes about 20 Wagers a shoe. I wonder how he did on this one I played today. I'm pretty sure he's happy he abandoned his 12-step suicide game!

 

I usually get one unit ahead on the 1st the 3rd or the 5th bet. Nobody ever talks about the size of their unit why would you do that. What difference does it make, a unit is a unit relative to how big your bankroll is.

 

A 12 step marti ? Soxfan was kidding ?

 

I have never advocated the use of a 12 steps marti! I did test a style usin a shorts-leash 4 step grand marty and it show a consistent net profits buckin up against just over 23 000 tested shoe but way too volatile for me to use, hey hey.

 

The proficient 21 cards counter got the verify edge and advantage and they NEVER employ any absurd, arbitrary, nonsensical stops-win/stops-loss foolishness. They simply play so many hour per day and let the profits come to them, hey hey.