Baccarat To be a professional Baccarat gambler.

Jimske, easiest way to wrap your head around it. Ties don't affect p and b decisions. What is the chance after a p decision of the next hand being a p 50-50 same as banker. EVERY hand is right at 50-50. If 50 percent of the time it follows and 50 percent it does not....That makes 50 percent of decisions singles or one by itself.... The problem is it can take multiple shoes to the balance out. Yesterday the shoe I played had 31 singles and 15 two or above. This would make up for a shoe that went the other way for me. I don't wait on that. Even your example of pppbpbppp has 3 singles to 2 two or more.....

 

Same 1iar

Here is the data from both the Zumma books. 1600 shoes.




The Wiz data sets have all shown the same thing, nobody said any 1 given shoe will represent the expected norm for such a sample.

 

I see what you're doing. Comparing singles to repeat regardless of their length. Yeah then it's 50%. I always consider average run lengths. So there's 18 singles, 9 doubles, 4 and 1/2 triples, Etc. In that respect singles make up about 25% of decisions.

 

looks about the same as the 3000 shoes I sent Dave. Plus he used an RNG to test more. I forget how many he said he used.

 

Given that steaks of 1's, 2's and 3's consist of 87% of all results via the stats from the two Zumma books. While it is not mean task, I think more focus should be given to designing a suitable money management for the bet selection OLD. Something espoused by many renowned posters over the years. The figures have been proven numerous times, you have to to be able to handle the variance.

As we know, all bet selections will resolve to 50% against Truth Tables, so forget anthropomorphizing the game (templates), trending, pattern tracking, triggers, guess work.

Of course you are vulnerable to streaky portions of a shoe, 4 by 4 back to streaks etc. If you design a suitable and flexible MM approach, you have without doubt nailed the game. A conundrum which I've banged my head against the wall throughout the years.

I've dabbled applying my own String method, using multiple banks (progressions). Flat betting the top line, flexible rotating separate progressions for the 2's and 3's, another for the 4's and 5's. line and even another for streaks of 6's and 7's. Personally I wanted to include capturing streaks ending at 6 or 7, as it fits a previous AS4 strategy of mine.

Of course STAR and modifications of STAR are possible MM options. Sure-Win with the Slide option can handle 19 losses, but requires to much bankroll. I don't think any viable solution should need hundreds of units bankrolls. Flat betting is also not an option obviously.

Another option is including a trigger switch to FLD. Once the 3rd or 4th line is populated on consecutive columns switch to FLD. Having been down this route, it just breaks it. Then you risk getting snared making the switch back to OLD, which then becomes mentally frustrating and your game plan starts to fall apart.

Folk may be thinking of the wonderful streaky shoes they have encountered, these are generally few and far between, we can't play with hindsight, I also believe that we don't have to win every shoe. We can afford to lose against the odd shoe here and there provide the damage is limited (this doesn't mean bailing from a overtly streaky shoe, which may happen to end on a 10 chop sequence!!).

OLD is supported by the maths and IMO the stats start ringing true inside 3 or 4 shoes.
Betselection is not the problem, it is the monetary approach, fresh impetus is needed, should it prove to be fruitless, then so be it.

 

This is true and getting to the heart of the matter!

When people talk about parlays and such, I hope they are not just looking at a double win such as Player-Player or Banker-Banker and considering Player-Banker or Banker-Player as well.

Consider the following:

Banker-Banker
Banker-Player
Player-Player
Player-Banker

So the probability is 1 in 4.

However the average longest waiting time for Banker-Banker or Player-Player is 6.

The average longest waiting time for Banker-Player or Player-Banker is 4.

Here is a sheet enclosed which I compiled a while ago using the three EC on roulette and you can see that the average pretty much manifested itself over this small sample on all of the three EC.

Don't get me wrong because there is a time and place for every bet selection however when considering variance and MM, if you are going to tackle something using an aggressive progression, you might want to know what you are up against.

 

Gentlemen I know I have stated this a lot but one more time won't kill me. Johno the shoe from Friday had 3 runs of 4 and 4 runs of 3. Obviously a chop shoe. A run of 10 chops in a row at one point and 4 runs of 3 chops. I don't look to trend those decisions but to trend the tracking that I use. Eugene it plays into chops and extends streaks or straight line where there aren't any.. Highlights were a run of 10, 2 runs of 8, a run of 6, 2 runs of 5, 10 runs of 4, 18 runs of 3. That from the same p or b decisions. My highlight was when the 8, 3, 10, 2, 2, 3, 2. Hit back to back. It also had chop patterns I did not go for of 10, 5, 3-4s, 4-3s. Patterns appear everywhere. IF you can find what works together and figure out how to play them. I'm getting better I didn't even throw my card when my 8 was beaten by a 9. Seems to happen every time out now or a 9-9 tie when I'm on P. I'm also remembering that each outcome is 50-50 and never up your bet because you lost a few hands but play everything to capture an event. PLANNED PLAY! Not made up as I go. The thing is lots of people think they observe and make a decision. Truth is you make the same decision based on what you see almost every time. It is mechanical whether you fool yourself in believing your a great guesser or not. DELUSION.

 

Junket King, as you and many are aware, I think the stronger the player is in baccarat then if you were to look at a chart of their play over any session there is more of a systematic result with less volatility. I can say for my own play that I am falling into these streaking and volatile sections of play during a session way too much so there is a too much ground covered up and down for the overall result. My most recent session was the extreme in that with a good outcome, but it was very difficult to say the least.

When a section of a baccarat shoe has high trending and strong formations then that is the time to get in and stay with it. No matter how disciplined and systematic, there should be some sense or feeling of when the tides are in favor and everything is turning out well. It can disappear in a few hands, but that is how a player can stay in the pocket and sweep back from being in the red. That is how the strongest players can take a strong session and push it to an even better result.

 

I'm sorry I'm so persistent. "Sure-Win with the Slide option can handle 19 losses" can you explain to me how to do this?

 

It was posted on the wonderful GamblersGlen site (don't worry about the virus warning). I can't find it.

But did take a copy some time back, so you are in luck, you don't need to go looking for it

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-


This is an eighteen bet negative progression with a potential profit of 2, 3 or 4 units (depending on when the win comes) that could top out at a $488 loss. Thus my suggestion, "the slide".

Assume you lose the first three bets (whether outright or in the parlays or combination is immaterial). The next bet should be 2 units with a current total loss of 4 units. Let's say we win part one of bet #4 or 2 units and now can decide whether to continue to part two of bet #4 (parlay) or use "the slide"

The slide locks up the initial 2 unit win and takes two steps back down the progression to bet #2. The two unit win reduces our current total loss to two units and we continue the progression from here as a new bet. Keep in mind that while we are now at bet #2 level we are really repeating the fourth position of the progression as we count out 18 bets (14 bets left after this one).

Four things can occur because of "the slide":

We can still run through the full 18 bets and lose....but the total loss has dropped from $488 to $274 (reduced by about 44%).

If you are still willing to risk that $488, you can (for $1 more or $489) carry out the progression to a total of 20 bets.

Potential profit now is 1, 2 or 3 units. There is always a price to be paid to reduce risk or extend the progression.

If after the slide you loss the next three bets (combination of loss doesn't matter) you can take a second slide.


The Second Slide (this gets a little confusing):

We are again at the fourth bet after the first slide (again we lost those first three bets). Assume we've won part one of bet #4 or 3 units and have a total running loss of 7 units. We can either parlay or slide again. Lock up that win which reduces the loss to 4 units and slide down two positions on the progression back to bet #3. Remember, even though we are at bet #3 for amount to bet, our count position on our allotted 18 total bets is 7 (11 bets left).

Having taken the second slide, three things can occur:

We can lose all the remaining bets.....but our total loss that started at 488 units and was reduced to 274 units, now drops to 154 units or almost 70% less.

If you are OK with that 488 units wall and risked 2u more or 490 units, you can make a total of 22 bets.

Potential profit is now a combination of breaking even 31% or 1 to 2 units 69% on a progression win. Again a price is paid.


I'm not saying this is how the progression should be played, it's just an option.

The original system went several extra steps in the progression.

After 123, we have 164, 219, 292.

Regardless of whether one stops at the 8th step or goes all the way to the end, the bettor has to have faith that the game they are playing will have two wins that are back-to-back. It is really that simple.


If someone doesn't believe that this can be accomplished or occur, then do not play the method.
Otherwise, it is wise to stay with the method as it was laid out to profit.

There is nothing wrong with your conservative approach. Many times using progressions such as a Fibo, when I was laying out bets in the hundreds - I'd quit at a break-even point rather than stay where I was for a subsequent win.

It is all about risk and reward. And a bit about faith of a double occurring before the end of the progression.

It is good to have an alternative (as your point enumerates). Everyone has to take into consideration their bankroll and the amount of risk they are willing to take.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

This is not mine, I do not play this way. Any questions you will have to figure them out yourself or ask Soxfan, he uses sure-win.

 

The fastest road to going pro/ or anything in that space:

• Most people around me in a casino do not know what the fuck they are doing.
• If I play risk averse standard ball baccarat I can at least do as well as my JOB (Just Over Broke). (JOB can even be serious 6 figures).

 

But if you know what you are doing, you can earn more than working for a living, so should expect to strike it rich.

I disagree, you need the ability to ride out the rough patches, usually for me via MM.

They certainly can't control a losing hand, but can control a losing shoe, by their bet amounts.

Absolutely.

Yes, divide any previous loss by 3, or 4 if needed, and make that the goal target over 3 or 4 days, been doing that for close on a decade.

Good point, deviation has cost me in the Real World, would have been far better off sticking to what I was doing originally.

thanks.

Yes, I need to keep the faith.

Absolutely, their bet amount and composure.

Yes they can, you design a solid bet selection and ride out the bumps. No need to ever change what you are doing if it is robust enough.

Of course each hand is non-correlated, considering Baccarat outcomes as Binary, is all you need, it's close enough, no such thing as living in the Baccarat world.

My goal when I go to a B&M casino is 100% of my buyin. I do tend to play a lot of shoes, whatever it takes to get there. If I make the effort to travel to a B&M casino, 20% ain't cutting it.

How about a 100 or 200 units per day, that's what I'm probably averaging.

Think I answer this, which is absolutely spot on.

This is wrong, you have taken the odds of losing 5 bets in a row, while stating losing 2 bets in a row are both 50 50 bets. The correct odds from the on-set only of losing 2 bets in a row is 25%. When you have lost 4 bet s in a row and place your 5th bet, you don't suddenly have a 96.09% chance of not losing, it's still a 50/50 outcome. You know this, but your answer was a bit biased.

Haha, so true.

 

It is beyond obvious that you are a true professional gambler as you are beating a game that cannot be beat. I thank you for all the knowledge and wisdom you provide. I am glad I do not listen to the naysayers on the wizard of odds forum, or else I would have given up a long time ago. I am getting ever closer, but still not there yet. I no longer visit that forum as negativity does not do me any favors.

 

The WoV crowd are a bunch of "know no better, one tracked minded bigots" when it comes to Baccarat. Mentioned progression, first thing that springs to their closed minds is the Martingale. Mention Baccarat and you must be looking at patterns or following trends. I know I am making way more on a daily basis then most of their BJ players.

Hey Shattered Dreams IMO having read your posts regarding playing multiple game, I really think hedging is a clever move, I been there when I was jumping around tables betting AS4 (anti-streak) [I was positive after 3 months of action back in 2004, my downfall was to finally sit at a table], you are doing the exact same thing but betting AS2, the next step for you, again only offering it as a suggestion, is try if you can take in 3 tables/machines to play. You will have to be quicker with your MM, which shouldn't be too hard with a bit of practise, just take the balance of the 3 bets, even better if you can increase one of them if two other machines have lost. Then bet the first two machines accordingly once the result of the 3rd machine is known

 

Yes just like that pro arthur bishop. Great job and nicly win explain to us. Thankyou

 

The problem I have had with AS2 is not enough bets and too much waiting around, even when betting multiple tables at the same time. I have come to the conclusion that just betting playing one time, then on to the next table does the same. In Las Vegas, I have multiple casinos that have terminals where I can bet 4 tables at the same time from the same machine. Even then, AS2 just does not make that many bets. Something just came to my mind. Izak Matatya came up with a system called the secret flat bet system. It was simply betting player after a run of 4 bankers. I did not think it had merit at the time, but maybe it does.

 

You can keep lying to yourself and to the rest of the suckers on this forum. But we all KNOW that you're full of shit!!

 

I sense twinge of envy and jealously



There are those that can, and those that can only dream

Thankfully I don't live the miserable existence that is surely evident in JB's life.

 

Patience, same for me back in the day, waiting on bet opportunities, then you get ready to pounce, before you know it, lots of buses all arrive at the same time.

Not if it involves a single bet, you need to be taking more than one bite at the cherry. I used to take 3.

 

By Satdee, I should be able to show you another £5k withdrawal... That's British Sterling by the way <smile>

Did you know I occasionally travel the globe playing Baccarat?

VIP cards galore, eat your heart out JBs, I don't do humility when it comes to doubters <GRIN>


ONLY DEAD FISH GO WITH THE FLOW