1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Baccarat To bet for or against the trend?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Rond1nell1, Dec 8, 2021.

  1. Rond1nell1

    Rond1nell1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2021
    Likes:
    55
    Occupation:
    Croupier
    Location:
    Brazil
    I'm not here to create controversy, I just think a debate on the subject would be interesting.
    And if possible examples, triggers to play for or against the trend.
    I commented in another post that sometimes I play trying to break a streak and SPIKE asked me why I did that , since playing in favor of the streak you have a chance of losing only once while going against it can lose a lot since there is not how to know how far it will go.
    I'm exposing this so you can understand the concept of this post.
    I agree with SPIKE and my answer was that of the numerous big streaks I've watched I rarely see more than 12x, so I think it's interesting when you see a streak of 10 or more you enter looking to break it, betting for up to 3 rounds maximum.
    What I propose here:
    1. We express opinions about playing for or against the streak.
    2. Give examples in baccarat.
    3. Expose methods you used even without much success. Because we know that debating and listening to other opinions opens our vision and begins to have a greater understanding of the game.

    Let `s start:

    So, we know that playing against the streak we run the risk of it being too big, causing us to lose a lot of money if we try to follow it to the end!
    If you are in favor of trying sequencing, what methods do you use? What is your management of money and bets?

    And if you are in favor of playing following the trend of the sequence, how do you do when you are faced with a long sequence of alternating ones ( P BP BP P BP BP B ...)? What is your money and betting management?

    I hope we have a good, respectful debate!
     
  2. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    866
    Location:
    midwest
    You cannot give one logical reason for ever betting against a streak. Not one. You can have absolutely no idea when that streak is going to end so to bet against it is a fool's errand. If you always bet with a streak it's a calculated and planned attack. You lose once, you move on. You make one unit, you move on. Betting against a streak is what risk-taking gamblers do who don't know what they're doing. The whole point of being an AP is the take as few risks as possible. To be in control of your game as much as possible. To get in, make your goal, and get out. Betting against a streak doesn't do that.
     
  3. Rond1nell1

    Rond1nell1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2021
    Likes:
    55
    Occupation:
    Croupier
    Location:
    Brazil
    I fully agree!
    And could you contribute some trigger that you use to bet in favor of the straight?
     
  4. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Likes:
    2,087
    streaks . You either go with them , against them , or do nothing i
     
  5. Rond1nell1

    Rond1nell1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2021
    Likes:
    55
    Occupation:
    Croupier
    Location:
    Brazil
    But could you contribute in some way with an example you like to play?
     
  6. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Likes:
    2,087
    But, there are occasions when it makes sense to bet against a short streak .

    For some pros a streak begins already with 1 or 2 of a patternl
     
  7. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    866
    Location:
    midwest
    For me there has to be at least 6 or 7 in a row before I consider it a streak. I know some people consider four or five in a row to be a streak but for me that's not enough. For me the risk is higher betting anything less than six or seven. And because I'm a minimalist player now because I only play online, when I make one unit and stop betting the trend. If it goes to 12 or 13 in a row I have no regrets because that's not part of my game. I'm happy to make one unit. It's the same way with betting sleepers. To make a bet that it will continue to sleep I have to see it sleeping for six or seven in a row.
     

  8. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2016
    Likes:
    326
    Location:
    North Carolina
    I bet for a streak once a streak comes along. They usually follow each other. If it chops on that bet I will bet for another streak to form.

    BBP <- bet P
    If it becomes BBPB I bet B. If neither of those two win, I wait for another streak. They can come in bunches like chops. But unlike a chop if I don’t get a win right away I ride it out. With a chop you could lose to a streak a lot such as:

    BPBB or BPBPP. By the time you get on that chop (against a streak) it’s over. And if you’re continually betting against that streak you’re getting punished. The way I play it you aren’t perpetually chasing that chop. You lose once or twice and stay out.

    Not saying my way is better or correct, but it has worked for me over the years in all games.
     
  9. Rond1nell1

    Rond1nell1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2021
    Likes:
    55
    Occupation:
    Croupier
    Location:
    Brazil
    Yes, I've seen who likes to enter the crash when 3 comes and if 4 comes in favor.
    I like to work with patterns, triggers.
    Ex: If I see a sequence of 7 or more B, then I like to wait for a break and when I see 3 B in a row I go looking for the break.
    In other words, I play against 2 big straights followed by B. It's a trigger I use.
    And this topic I'm aiming at... We exchange ideas and examples like that.
     
  10. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2016
    Likes:
    326
    Location:
    North Carolina
    But I don’t ever bet WITH streaks. I go for one win and end it. I won’t bet indefinitely if a big streak comes. So if I have:

    PPB <- bet B

    and ultimately it goes PPBBBBBBB then I get my one win and wait for the B streak to end and then bet P after that break.
     
  11. Rond1nell1

    Rond1nell1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2021
    Likes:
    55
    Occupation:
    Croupier
    Location:
    Brazil
    Understood. And I also play looking to win 1 unit.
    But how do they do when bad periods come over and over.
    Which progression do you use? Stop loss of "X" units?
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2021
  12. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Likes:
    2,087
    You are an on line player . Now I understand your desire for lengthy streaks .

    B & M casno players are used to a different mode .
     
  13. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    124
    Occupation:
    ABR Complusive LIAR Management
    Location:
    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    Stick to your fantasy of having beaten roulette with your $1 staking plan.

    First don't take advice from an habitual deluded lair.

    Maths and binary tables clearly show the the longer the streak the greater the demising probability of it's continuance, this was covered by Barstow. Absolutely nothing wrong betting against a streak, but you must apply the brakes after a series of losses, don't get a head rush like some idiots do and keep going.

    Pay no attention to EvenBob and Watch seller, nobody can predict a streak, and it would be stupid to bet for streaks on a long term basis, 75% of all results don't go past a series of 2. The quote "you only lose one bet", sounds like it a mantra from a ill-informed dumb-assed school-kid who is doing his best to try and impress and doesn't know any better.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  14. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Likes:
    2,087
    Stay with 1 2 2


    Plat at your own risk .
     

  15. Rond1nell1

    Rond1nell1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2021
    Likes:
    55
    Occupation:
    Croupier
    Location:
    Brazil
    Here's an example I just played here:
    IMAGES FOLLOW ATTACHED
    BEFORE = A sequence came with 10 B. And I waited for another one with 3 B and entered the break.
    LATER = I got the break right first.
    NOTE: Another thing I like to consider is getting into the break of what's most frequent. In this example we have 16 B and 10 P.
    Game in the crash looking for a "Return to Average" as the game is 50/50.

    This is just a pattern that so far has been very accurate for me. If it will be profitable in the long run, only time will tell!!!
     

    Attached Files:

  16. Rond1nell1

    Rond1nell1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2021
    Likes:
    55
    Occupation:
    Croupier
    Location:
    Brazil
    I fully agree with that reasoning.
    We don't know how far a sequel can go, but the bigger it is, the more it's "expected to break."
    It is not impossible for us to see a shoe come out only P only from start to finish, but this is not expected to happen.
     
  17. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    866
    Location:
    midwest
    I never use a progression I only flat bet. If you're having bad periods that come over and over you're obviously betting when you should not be betting. You need to learn when the right time to bet is, it's all about controlling your losses. It takes time and observation and patience.
     
  18. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2016
    Likes:
    326
    Location:
    North Carolina
    It might be expected to break but the odds are still 50/50 ish that it will. Or it won’t.
     
  19. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    866
    Location:
    midwest
    And that's why you have to be satisfied making one unit.
     
    cps10 likes this.
  20. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Likes:
    2,087
    If you wanna win more increase the value of the one unit .
     

Share This Page