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Baccarat True Believers vs. Con-Artists

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Frank Kneeland, Jan 12, 2022.

  1. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    There are obviously a lot of people that believe baccarat is beatable. My own mother fell into this category as did several of her friends who financed the team I managed. Personally, I'm still on the fence, but that's irrelevant. We aren't asking the question "is it beatable?"

    We also know that out there are some people that don't think baccarat is beatable and instead profit from convincing suckers it is beatable and selling bogus systems. The question is out of of everyone saying it's beatable how many actually believe that themselves.

    Without getting into who's right or wrong and NOT-MENTIONING-ANY-NAMES what do we think the overall percentage is for "True-Believers" to "Con-Artists"???

    Additional Question: What do we think the overall ratio is for good vs. bad advice???

    Let's stick to percentages or ratios and not let this thread get caustic.
     
  2. Donal Whelan

    Donal Whelan New Member

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    the majority of people who may have discovered that the game is beatable, would find a way to profit via leveraging their winnings, maybe find
    1) a backer - person to fund them, or/and
    2) play for their funder with a % winning commission
    Both above options would not necessarily involving them divulging their formula.
    Third option keep the secret to themselves, play small & incrementally win.
    You can clearly see all those selling systems, and Youtube videos - have no clue what they doing other than fleecing others.
    Advice falls into the category of fleecing, because it feeds into the narrative & general problem when players lose they looking to find fault in their approach so that they can mitigate that their strategy is good, but their downfall falls outside their system's success. Self control/discipline etc., albeit logical, conceals other weaknesses within their strategy.
     
  3. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    If anybody had beaten the game of Baccarat they wouldn't need backers at any level. Even if they as broke as alfie, they would be hanging out of VIP rooms in Vegas within a few months.

    I hope nobody on this forum is saying it's beatable, I wouldn't say that, I don't think Jimski would either, two of the more knowledgeable posters people on the board, if I can say so myself.

    A lot of newbies gravitate to gambling forums, so their experience, exposure is limited, while their imagination may know no bounds. Occasionally a scamming cunt will pop up too, alas they have discovered they can peddle their bullshit unhindered on YT, I would say 20% good, 80% useless.

    Because Baccarat systems can be neither proven right or wrong, it usually generates the most traffic on any non-specialist gambling forum, just saying.
     
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  4. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    By following patterns and trends and all that I usually do 52% or 53% in baccarat. I do not consider that beating it because I can only play with a progression because I'm not going to sit there 6 hours a day playing through all the recovery phrases. Even at 52% or 53% hit rate using a progression you can still get in trouble. That's why when I play I'm only there to make a unit or two and I'm done. I find it hard to believe in places like Macau where the bigger casinos have 800 baccarat tables and at any given time 400 of them are open, I cannot believe that there is not people they're beating baccarat on a regular basis. If it cannot be beaten how is it that the same people keep winning the baccarat tournaments. I've said here before I know a guy in my local casino who is from India who's taken over $200,000 from them and they only let him play because they want their money back. He bets the maximum of $1,000 on every hand and he usually wins in the end. When he loses it's never more than two or three thousand and he's gone. I know he follows patterns and trends but there's a hell of a lot of instinct involved too. I've seen him do things where it looks like he has a crystal ball.
     
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  5. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    I just put my hand up, yes it is, i will add it is at this time the only casino game that is beatable, only because of the BJ, BS that casino choose to destroy
     
  6. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    Spike my Spike, you talk out of 2 holes, #1 you hit 80%, no you do not #2 if you can hit 50% per shoe you will have more money then you need to have, no one hits above 50% all the time FACT FACT FACT, the human race can not perdict the future, but you spike O matic just seem to be a winner at everything you do, why is that SPIKEOMATIC, you are a loser just for stating what you do>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
     
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  7. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    In roulette, with 3 streams of EC's to follow.
    I don't bet every spin, far from it. I bet
    when I see a bet to make. So yeah, 80%
    is very fair. You assume that I'm just sitting
    there betting and betting and doing 80%.
    In 10 sessions I might bet 14 or 15 times
    and have about an eighty percent hit rate.
    When you ass-ume, you generally just make
    an ass out of yourself.

    Where did I say I hit 50% pur shoe? 52% or 53% over multiple shoes. Which to me is not beating the game. I mostly try to stay around even and wait for the streaks where I can make a few units. It's not worth my time to sit there for as long as it takes to make a few units. You guys love to read stuff into everything and ass-ume you know what I'm talking about.
     

  8. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Thank you for your reply.

    If you had to guess what percentage of people offering advice do you think are genuine and at the very least believe what they are saying is true?
     
  9. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Interesting point you made there. I had not even thought about that. I do believe you're correct.

    I would add that things like VP info are more finite. If you've seen one Full-Pay-Deuce strategy you've seen them all.

    I mean sure the format and readability might very, but they're all the same strategy...and it's not all that interesting to talk on a forum about playing the strategy once you learn it. Who cares?

    Baccarat has that air of mystery never quite solved. Mysteries once solved are never quite so interesting.

    You gave me quite a lot of food for thought...
     
  10. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    My mother was a true believer in baccarat as well.

    Do you have an opinion on how my non-believers are peddling false ideas for profit?

    I really just need a ballpark estimate? (20% true 80% false) seems to be a popular consensus. Though it's going to very for everyone based on who they have interacted with.
     
  11. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I don't think you need to defend yourself Spike. It's not going to convince them anyway.

    This thread was just supposed to be about the ratio of True-Believers in the game.

    As example sports advisory services: I happen to know people in the biz and I can tell you 95% of them were total cons with no merit and they knew it. That's twenty years ago. It has gotten better.

    Anyway, sorry I dragged you into another mud-slinging contest. It was not my intent.
     
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  12. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    I would say that information peddlers are 20/80. 20% believe their ideas work and aren’t trying to take the public’s money as a way to make money without losing at the tables. 80% likely have no interest in trying their own ideas at the tables. I’d say 20% of those 80% are just trying to separate suckers’ money from their wallets.

    I also believe that people that have “beat” baccarat don’t come on forums. They just go and win.
     
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  13. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Let me add a story to the thread. As already stated my Mother was a true believer as were the other people on the team I managed.

    One day I bumped into a quasi-pro I knew from VP. Knowing my rep he simply assumed I was pulling a scam the same as he was. He greeted me by saying, "Hay Frank, see you figured out how easy baccarat players are to part from their money?" I said, "Pardon." He went on, "Well obviously it's not a beatable game unless someone is paying you to play." I said, "If you think the game is not beatable then why are you playing for someone and taking their money? That's dishonest!"

    He just looked puzzled and said, "But that's what you're doing!"

    I said, "No that's not what I'm doing. I was asked by my mother to manage her friend's team. I declined and told them I did not think the game was beatable. A week on they had some issues with theft of the players and then asked me if I could just keep track of all the money and paying the employees. When my mother asked if I could just do it as a favor to her I accepted the job grudgingly. I declined a percentage of the action and asked for a modest hourly wage instead."

    At this point he realized he had just told the Professional Gambler most famous for outing anyone cheating or conning people in casinos that he was conning people. He left without saying another word and I believe he left not just the casino but the town. I never saw him again.

    So in my personal experience I know of at least 3 con-men and about 12 True-Believers. 25% / 75% ratio.

    P.S. My nickname back then was "The Error Corrector." because I always turned in malfunctioning machines to management and got them fixed.
     
  14. porky

    porky Active Member

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    First he does need to defend himself. He uses simple trending. No more no less. If he is winning as he claims he is on a roll. Nothing more nothing less.

    As for true believers.... this isn't a religion... its a game... again no more no less....many aspects will never be explained though people especially on web boards attempt to ram their version of the truth down everyones throat.

    As for the sports betting getting better. No not really. Gambling authors....There was only one book I ever read that was actually any good and it was on craps.

    I just watched a over an hour show on utube of a AP BJ player that gets in an RV and travels the states.

    His only so called advantage was betting huge when he was winning. If they showed it all which I doubt. He lost around half of his winning before he was done.

    Counting cards in BJ gives no advantage but can bring the game to a fifty fifty..... Baccarat is at fifty fifty when you walk up to the table.

    The old saying of bet more win more. Or bet more when winning and less when losing....seat rent....That is why so few are successful at both games.....
     

  15. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Oh there's quite a bit more to that story though I don't have time to write it today.

    Abridged version: I felt bad for the investor when he lost all his money so I trained him up in VP strategy and got him a job playing with a Progressive team. He got all his money back and then blew it again on something negative at which point I gave up trying to help him.
     
  16. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I think I know the vid to which you are referring. I'm reasonably sure if he's a card counter his BIG bets have nothing to do with winning or losing. When you count cards you vary your bet based on the count.

    I'm not sure why you think counting only gets the return to 50/50 which I'm interpreting as meaning 100% So far as I know it can get much higher than that depending on how good you are at counting and shuffle tracking and edge reading.

    For me the issue with BJ was not that it wasn't very profitable. I had issues with lying about who I was and what I was doing. In progressive VP I could tell everyone I was a professional VP player and no one cared.

    It's obviously not like the good old days.
     
  17. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    That's a grimmer ratio than I would have suspected. I hope you're wrong.
     
  18. porky

    porky Active Member

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    This is why I take everything not on face value alone.
    BJ the question I always ask before people get pissed is this.
    You count to a really high count. The next four cars are k t a k not in that order. Who gets the bj at heads up you or the dealer. Fifty fifty.
    Its a moderate count. The next cards out are 6 t k q 8 who busts? or instead of an eight a four.....fifty fifty....
    There is always people saying I'm wrong but not one has stated why. Only if you can arrange the cards or hole card can you gain an advantage. In the show he at least bet two spaces when he was at a good count.... That at least gives him two hands to one.......Shuffle tracking? seriously where are the sheep buying into this..... you can know beyond a shadow of a doubt that in the next seven cards will be four aces..... you can still lose..... thats why they state such a small number they consider successful AP players. Don Johnson did it right.... but he even smiles and says he could have lost.... he also says he's not welcome in several casinos now.....
     
  19. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    I am a blackjack player. I do well in most sessions but I do have my tough days. I have a general count of the cards. That’s ONLY if it’s a handheld or shoe game. But that doesn’t mean that you know what order those tens or face cards or Aces are coming. Just like what porky said. If you know four aces are coming in the next seven cards, they could come up in a variety of different ways. How about A-A-10-A-9? That’s a bust. It could happen any which way. Are you likely to get a blackjack or Pat hand? Yes. Does it mean you’ll get it? No.

    Just like with people that claim they can count cards in baccarat. The problem is the sequencing. No way you could ever predict that.

    And now more casinos are going with the continuous shuffle machines. There is NO way in hell that you can claim to get AP against those. You can never have an accurate count because discards go back in the deck after a hand and are eligible to come back out in the next hand.
     
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  20. porky

    porky Active Member

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    That's being real......
     
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