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Roulette Van De Waerden Theorem of Mathematics (VDW)

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by NickMsi, Apr 18, 2017.

  1. Bobby

    Bobby Member

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    Hey Nick,

    I appreciate your time spent on this. I'm still having a hard time seeing anything than just plain ol' random.

    For comparison's sake, I made a quick E/C sheet with 7922 wagers. I then looked at the gap (max-min) to get an absolute gap. In your example it was a high of 58 - (-54) = 112 units.

    Well I ran it 30 times to get 30 absolutes to compare. The average from my sheet of 30 samples (so we can say significant), but 9 times out of 30 or 30% the random EC had a lower gap.

    1 104
    2 186
    3 99
    4 114
    5 143
    6 120
    7 114
    8 100
    9 165
    10 177
    11 241
    12 126
    13 135
    14 134
    15 85
    16 120
    17 137
    18 90
    19 102
    20 107
    21 162
    22 203
    23 223
    24 132
    25 170
    26 144
    27 161
    28 187
    29 159
    30 98

    141.2666667

    With that said, I don't see how the possibility of a very slightly lower variance (which I still don't see in the testing) can beat a huge house advantage or even a lower advantage in Bac.

    Also, I share your frustration. Admin needs to make XLSX files allowed in the upload. Not allowing Excel sheets in a gambling forum is a bit ridiculous.

    Cheers,
    Bobby
     
  2. Bobby

    Bobby Member

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    I also wanted to add that the mean was 141 and the Stdev is 40 so your result falls within 1 Stdev.
     
  3. bacproof

    bacproof New Member

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    Nick,
    thank you for your inputs.
    I am REALLY curious to see VDW at work under your setup.
    ...and hope we'll get the opportunity to get results similar to yours.
     
  4. NickMsi

    NickMsi Member Lineage to Founders

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    Hi Bobby,

    Yes your results show that random will be random. Sometimes it will be higher, sometimes lower and sometimes the same. Random is “like a box of chocolate, you never know what you are going to get”.

    But the VDW is constant. Random does not effect it.

    That was the point of the previous thread. It was not to show how it can beat the house advantage.

    Perhaps the next thread will shed more light

    Cheers

    Nick
     
  5. NickMsi

    NickMsi Member Lineage to Founders

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    Some of you may think that the results shown in the previous threads may be due to luck. But there is a way of measuring luck.

    Back in 2009 Tangram posted on the old VLS forum the following:

    There is a simple calculation you can do on your results which can help tell you if your profits are due to luck or something more, and can indicate that more testing is needed, whether a method is "showing promise" or should be binned, and also gives a standard way of comparing the merits of methods which may be betting on different outcomes (for example, a single number system and a dozens system). Note that this is covered briefly in Kon-Fu-Sed's excellent probability tutorial, but it's so important that it deserves more emphasis and a fuller explanation.

    Introducing the "z-score"

    The calculation generates a number called the "z-score", which tells you how far away your actual results are from what you would expect to get (on average) if you were simply betting randomly for the same number of decisions. The higher the score is, the lower the chance that your results are due to random variability, or "luck".

    In the statistical literature, there are 3 z-score values which are commonly quoted. For our purposes they can be expressed as the following:



    z-score of 1.0 - there is a 16% chance that your results are due to luck.
    z-score of 2.0 - there is a 2.3% chance that your results are due to luck.
    z-score of 3.0 - there is a 0.13% chance that your results are due to luck.

    For those interested in the actual math here is the link

    https://www.vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=13193.0

    The graphs shown in the previous threads were simply to show that Random has little effect on a VDW system thereby making it a very stable bet selection.

    Attached is a graph of one of my “souped up” VDW systems.

    You will note the Largest Bet = 1, meaning it is Flat Betting.

    Note the bets placed = 20,298

    And note the Z-core = 5.92

    To sum it up:

    Random (Variance) does not affect those who play a biased wheel because of the Laws of Physics.

    Random(Variance) does not affect those who play VDW because of the Laws of Math.

    Random(Variance) affects all other systems.

    Contrary to conventional random systems, in VDW:

    1. Past Spins are necessary

    2. A group of 9 spins are dependent

    3. Variance has no effect on your bet selection
    Ladies and Gentlemen, there is a new Sheriff in town and his name is VDW.

    Good Luck

    Nick
     

    Attached Files:

    Spider likes this.
  6. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Wow, you really suck at math and are completely delusional.

    Each spin is independent and has no connection to the previous spins. The VDW is an utter waste of time for roulette.
     
  7. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    It's the "flavor of the month", they come and go.
     
  8. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I'm pretty sure that Nick is one of the flat earthers from roulette cc.
     
  9. soxfan

    soxfan Member

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    Never waste time tryin to explain stuff or things to the mathite and ap-wiseguy, hey hey.
     
  10. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    "Exposed" how? You never did answer me. I asked an HONEST question......still waiting. May 27th, fast approaching.

    Ken
     
  11. Junket King

    Junket King Active Member

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    Tut tut, this was first posted on another web-site well over a year ago. I did run some analysis against a set of truth tables, no advantage whatsoever, in fact the exercise highlighted it's shortcomings, which weren't minor (can't recall what it was, it's all available elsewhere).
     
    TurboGenius likes this.
  12. celescliff

    celescliff Member

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    And again, in the last graph, is 0 included?
     
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  13. Junket King

    Junket King Active Member

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    Not in this case, if it was any good you simply take it to the Baccarat tables, alas it isn't.
     
  14. NickMsi

    NickMsi Member Lineage to Founders

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    Hi Celescliff, thanks for asking a question which I am happy to answer.

    No, the Zero is not included.

    The test was to see if we can beat a 50/50 system just betting Black with no progression which we did.

    Our intention is to play this for baccarat which has a much lower house advantage.

    Cheers

    Nick
     
  15. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    celescliff and mr j like this.
  16. NickMsi

    NickMsi Member Lineage to Founders

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    Hi Turbo,

    In your own Thread on Roulette, Mr Anyone posted:

    "Nickmsi
    Prove it. Show us the math that supports your absurd claims. Demonstrate how past spins reach forward in time to influemce the future probability. Provide us with some examples"

    So I responded I would start a new topic so I would not hijack your thread.

    VDW can still be played at several No Zero Roulette Casinos.

    We can add zero as another bet selection and play Single Zero tables.

    VDW can be played in craps as well.

    Any binary event can be played with VDW.

    Cheers

    Nick
     
  17. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    My comment was due to what you said above.
    If it's not intended for roulette - then there is a section here for baccarat where it could be discussed.
    If you can add a 0 or add a 0 / 00 to the mix and still prove that it works - then that's great.
    Unfortunately - the 0 and 0/00 completely change the math from no longer being a 50/50 game.
    This is what destroys methods and systems based on things being 50/50
     
  18. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    It's amusing when we people that really suck at math quote and attempt to use math theorems that they don't even remotely comprehend as a way to prove that their latest roulette system works..all while throwing logic and common sense out the window! Lol!!!
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2017
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  19. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    When the thread opened, I admit I was lost - I looked up and read :
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_der_Waerden's_theorem

    and then came to realize that it had absolutely nothing to do with roulette, or red/black
    combinations that could be somehow "predicted" ahead of time to increase the player's chances.
    I'll just stay out of it though - people have a learning process to go through before they see the
    "way" vs the complicated path that doesn't lead to the answers.
     
  20. ybot

    ybot New Member

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    Nickmsi wrote:
    ""In other words, a Non-Random system like a biased wheel totallyignores what random is doing.

    A Non-Random system of bet selection does not care what the Standard Deviation is.

    A Non-Random system of bet selection says FORGET ABOUT RANDOM"""
    A biased wheel obeys to its own random volatility. You cannot know each of its numbers frequencies before a large study. But, huge positive and negative fluctuations are present at biased wheels too.
    Standard deviations measure how it is from random. Biased wheel numbers have their own frequencies and can be gauge with sd too.
    It is the same caotic system where some people can take advantage
     

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