Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Baccarat Magician, Nov 7, 2021.
Reading randomness and educated guessing? Translation utter confusion hoping for a lucky pick.
Hello! What money management are you using for double dozens?
Unfortunately in your world this is sad but true. In my world it's the polar opposite of confusing and has nothing to do with luck. Only confused people believe that luck exists. They can't explain something so they blame it on luck.
Take it up with Lucious Seneca . "Luck is when opportunity meets preparation."
Which is just another way of saying that luck does not exist. Opportunity meets preparation means you are creating the outcome and luck has nothing to do with it.
Well I wouldn't argue that luck does not exist, but I would say that luck alone is not the deciding factor for long term success.
As an Australian, the government here recognises luck in gambling. For tax purposes income based on gambling luck and lotto windfalls do not any attract tax no matter how large, even though this is one of the highest and most hostile tax jurisdictions in the world.
We have the largest gamblers in the world here with turnover in excess of $3 billion who don't pay tax because it's not considered a business due to being gambling and hence 'luck' (casinos and bookmakers are operating a business and must pay tax because luck is not considered the fundamental factor in their income).
Given the government recognises "luck" is the factor, it is not considered the same as say betting on the stock market which is not considered "luck" and is hence heavily taxed. When you look at the actual science, the stock market returns are random and the distinction with respect to gambling becomes almost philosophical.
Gambling has the benefit of no black swan events to wipe out a large portion of your invested capital, so you would have to argue why gamble on the stock market that attracts high taxes (basically obscene government house edge) and not instead pay relatively small lumps in house edge/bookmakers spreads to benefit from tax free returns from gambling because the government considers it "luck".
So I won't say no to luck and pass up the zero tax benefit, because then I'd be operating a business for tax purposes.
Australia is not saying they believe in luck, what they're saying is it's too much work to separate the winnings gotten by random chance from the winnings gotten by skill. So they don't even bother trying. It would take too much manpower and they would lose money.
The Australian government views gambling winnings slightly differently than many other countries and this reflects the different approach to gambling taxation. Where many nations, like the United States, view gambling winnings as income; Australia views it as luck.
The rationale for this is simple. When people gamble, most of the time, they lose. Gambling results in more money leaving gamblers pockets on balance than entering it. Even when people do win, they usually don’t win large amounts. Gambling cannot reasonably or rationally be considered income because it’s making people lose money more than making it.
Officially. What is really going on is they have no way of telling who won by random chance and who won by skill. So they are opting out of the whole thing and blaming it on luck. What do you expect them to say, we are so incompetent that we have no way of telling who has skill and who doesn't? How do you think that would look. Believe me they are not doing you any favors on purpose. They calculated the fact it would take more manpower to separate random chance from skill then would be profitable for them. So they're just ignoring the whole thing and blaming it on luck. If they could find a way to find the skilled players and still make money for the government they would do it in a heartbeat. I'm sure they wring their hands in anguish everyday at all that untaxable money running through the casinos. My CPA tells me that taxes are a business and as a business it needs to show a profit. Australia cannot show a profit by trying to find the skilled players so they just ignore the whole thing.
They tax the operation of gambling businesses, not the win amount. It has nothing to do with administration concerns, or whether it was skill or planning or sheer luck of the draw. We already have the worlds most complicated and innefficent tax law, and that's not what holding them back. They do try to go after anyone who has high turnover and individuals do have to defend against certain assumptions that the tax office may make treating activity as a business or as unexplained undeclared income (think proceeds of crime which must also be declared and attracts both tax and allowable deductions, criminal penalties excluded).
They don't need to tax the punter, they prefer to rationally view it as luck and it is the only reason it is not taxed. The moment they want to tax winnings they would also have to allow deductions for losses, imagine a martingaler or progression bettor who can claim their prior bets before the wining bet as losses, imagine all the recreational players claiming their gambling losses every weekend. They would net far less doing this given the overwhelming majority of punters lose. Those (lucky) few that do make an overall net gain through the chance outcomes of gambling and lotteries are considered lucky because it's so rare.
From the Australian Taxation Office, Taxation Ruling IT 2655:
Ultimately each case will depend on its own facts. There is no Australian case in which the winnings of a mere punter have been held to be assessable (or the losses deductible). As Hill J stated in Babka, although mere punting may constitute a business, "the intrusion of chance into the activity as a predominant ingredient" will generally preclude such a finding.
Right there "the intrusion of chance" in the tax ruling is what we call "luck".
In Australia it's the losses deductible that complicate mere gambling for tax assessment. The ATO would never see a cent so they don't bother chasing gamblers.
Lucky for them, hey.
Yeah it's a rational decision to treat punter returns as luck. Most gamblers lose, only a few "lucky ones" win, and even then the winnings are generally small balanced against the majority of overwhelming losses. Every man and his dog would become a gambling business and write off the losses against other income if they wanted to tax wins.
.. so such a move would ultimately be a disaster for the tax man. Of course they could come up with some scheme to prevent claiming losses and some are arguing for this (naively in my view) however the follow on effects in behaviour would probably have a negative effect if tax came out of winnings without being able to claim losses. It would also require changes to gambling operators as the state collects tax/license fees from operators who are operating businesses and have an expected return. The extra dip by the tax man would reduce gross turnover as people are less inclined to buy a lotto ticket play at a club or casino or bet on a horse if the tax man takes a chunk of the win each time and the punter would have less in their pocket with which to make the next bet. The profitability to operators would be significant as it would also turn away punters, who would either go underground or use offshore betting options and this would probably destroy the horse racing industry here and cause major retaliation by the establishment and ultimately be a political lead balloon. Doesn't mean there are not those trying to work out how to tax gambling, but any moves are likely to reduce tax revenue through reduced activity whilst doing nothing to dissuade problem gamblers (which is the angle that is always used to peddle a tax).
As my Aussie mat8 once said to me, "you can get lucky for an a single result", such as winning 9-8, or not losing having a total of zero (baccara), but it takes something more than luck to win on a consistent basis.
I'm not doing it anymore. Messing around with other methods now.
Those cats are making a living at the City mission a la Guys and Dolls .
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