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Baccarat worst stretches in Baccarat

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by albalaha, Aug 21, 2019.

  1. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2014
    Likes:
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    Many may wonder but it is the Player and not Banker which is my favorite bet. I looked for stretches where Banker wins overpower Player wins immensly and where it looks as if winning of Player is highly unlikely if someone plays Player only, all over.

    I scanned through Zumma 1600 with 114,074 hands of BP without ties(ties removed as push) and found this as the worst stretch of Player(starting with only 4 wins in the first 30 hands):
    B
    B
    B
    B
    P
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    P
    B
    P
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    P
    B
    B
    B
    B
    B
    P
    P
    B
    P
    P
    P
    P
    P
    B
    P
    B
    P
    B
    B
    P
    B
    P
    P
    B
    B
    B
    P
    B
    B
    P
    B
    B
    P
    B
    P
    P
    P
    B
    P
    P
    P
    B
    B
    P
    P
    P
    B
    B
    P
    B
    B
    P
    B
    P
    B
    P
    B
    P
    P
    P
    P
    B
    B
    B
    P
    B
    P
    B
    B
    P
    P
    P
    P
    P
    P
    P
    P
    B
    B
    B
    P
    B
    B
    B
    P
    P
    P
    P
    P
    P

    If you could find anything starting like this from any real data, let us all see that. Try to have almost 200 hands starting from the worst stretch. Thanks.
     
  2. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
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    I need to see it this way so that I can use visual dexterity.

    Code:
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    27 Bankers and 6 losses after the first double player. Aggregate win 21.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2019
    eugene likes this.
  3. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams Member

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    That stretch of bankers will kill any progression on player only, and that is why I stress that you have to play at multiple tables at once. Here is a good example of what I am talking about. Here is the total of player/banker on 4 tables.

    Table 1: 39 banker 41 player

    Table 2: 37 banker 37 player

    Table 3: 51 banker 25 player

    Table 4: 37 banker 39 player

    Now, if you play at a single table, you will run into table 3 at some point that will blow out any progression as it only has a win percentage of 32.89%. However, the combined total of player bets on all 4 tables is 46.4%. The 3 normal tables soften the blow greatly. Here is an old post from 2005 where a guy made a progression and tested it which was successful. When he went out and tested it with real money, his results were much better in testing.

    "Hi,
    As promised I keep you guys posted about the success of this system in real play.

    Its a tremendous news that the system is doing extremely well. In my computer test its supposed to be only 1.04 wins for every 1 bet placed after applying the progression. In actual play though I believe or it appears to me that its performing much better. I have not looked into details of my actual play though carefully and calculated since its doing so well I do not bother to think of other things except placing bets and having good time.


    I think I know the reason though. In my computer test the system is played on one table with a few shoes every day. While in live play now I am playing at 3 to 4 tables simultaneously in the whole pit or near by pit. This makes the results more random and wins and losses comes pretty quickly. This improves the progression winning ratio as terrible losses don't appear due to playing all the tables simultaneously.


    This way I am able to make 100 dollars an hour playing 25 dollars base bet. My highest bet has gone to 11 units which is 275 which was the worst case. Though my test shows I may have to bet one time 27 units which is the maximum bet you ever made in 300 shoes. Draw down being 80 units, the capital of 150 units is sufficient. In live play I have only used 60 units of my capital until now."

    I only bet, or should I say will bet, on player myself as I do not want to deal with the banker commission. The more tables you can play at the same time, the better. In the Gold Coast casino in Las Vegas, there are 20 baccarat tables that are pretty much running 24/7. If you were to walk from table to table placing one bet on player, then move to the next, you should more stable results with less variance since they will all balance themselves out. It would not matter even if you had 2 or 3 tables running 60 bankers/20 players. This way of betting will not improve flat betting results, but it will lessen variance like the VDW bet selection method attempted to do.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2019
  4. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    I can beat this stretch with my MM. I don't need any pattern or voodoo for the same.
     
  5. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams Member

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    Okay, you are right and I was wrong. By looking at it by first glance, that is what I thought. At decision 31, you are at 4 wins and 27 losses which is pretty brutal. That is the worst of it, and then it improves greatly from there. I put all the those results betting on player only into the 6 point divisor with a target of 4. To my surprise, it did beat those results with a profit of 8 units. The largest drawdown was -111 units which it hit twice at decision 58 and 60 before fully recovering by decision 100. My question though is why would you want to deal with that? I certainly would not.
     
  6. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    Why would I? You are speaking as if you can control the flow of Wins and losses. I am talking of dealing with the toughest. In this particular stretch, bet went a bit corrective after the initial hard time but it may remain below average for longer. Any divisor will only kill you then or your bets will go sky high.
     
  7. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams Member

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    What I meant was why would you want to play at a single table which will produce results like that? I have been observing the results of playing multiple tables for a while now and it drastically reduces variance. I have only seen terrible runs like the one you posted on a single table. I have not seen it on multiple tables. Others have reported the same.
     
    Junket King likes this.

  8. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Member

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    Hello!

    Can you provide details on how you are playing multiple tables betting player only. Do you watch the trend for players for each table? Do you have a trigger to bet Player?

    Thanks in advance.
     
  9. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams Member

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    Every bet on player has approximately a 49% chance to win, so it doesn't matter what has happened previously in the shoe. All you do is bet player for one bet, go to the next table and do the same and so on. Just switch tables for each bet. If, for example there are 6 tables, you bet table 1,2,3,4,5,6 then back to table 1 and repeat.
     
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  10. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    Buddy. We have been playing for about 15 years. What you are saying doesn't help. You change tables or casinos you will find bad stretches still. If changing tables could change randomness everybody will play Marty running around tables.
     
  11. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Good thinking shattered dreams, you are hedging your bets, which casinos don't like players doing, hence no cellphones at the table. Smart move.
     
    shattered dreams and Terry Plumb like this.
  12. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Exactly, these shoes that highlight the worst variance imaginable are a goldmine in the right hands!
     
  13. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    It's like all these guys who used to rave about Marigny de Grilleau!
    By the time someone has waited for 4 or 5 SD...somebody else would already be in the bar celebrating.
     
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  14. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    :D:D:D:D:D
     

  15. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Member

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    Thanks for the reply. What sort of MM is good for this bet selection.
     
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  16. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams Member

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    I tried to upload the divisor I used, but I cannot nor post links since I am a new member. Search for lankys 6 point divisor on google as this is what I used.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2019
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  17. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    All you are doing is providing yourself with multiple data streams. I have six unique data streams on the Roulette table so I can see how you think that this changes variance by reducing it. But you are placing a bet on all six groupings at the same time. I just take the best looking one and place one bet. My guess is that more chances just has a rounding effect that appears to be a less variable. Each table is an independent unconnected occurrence. You could play 6 shoes at the same table and then average them for that rounding effect. I think you are just using confirmation bias to draw a conclusion.
     
  18. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Yep. It's a full blown gold rush. If you bet big you will draw an immediate crowd that cheers you on. And if you play crash test dummy the few that see you do it will hide their faces from you because you suck so bad at gambling. Not even a Progressive can call you comrade if you do that.
     
  19. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams Member

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    I do not have millions of decisions to base the conclusion I came to. From what I have seen, I have had really big winning and losing streaks when testing at one table. When I use the results of multiple tables, I still have winning and losing streaks, just smaller in nature. I have seen much more win/loss/win/loss than I do at a single table. The worst results I have seen using multiple tables is 6 wins/11 losses. 11 of those losses were at the same table, while the other 3 provided the 6 wins. Could I have 4 wins/27 losses? The answer is yes, but it would have to be the result of being really unlucky and picking all the losing bets on each table. It would not be the result of a shoe going 23wins/55 losses which is usually the case.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2019
    Junket King likes this.
  20. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    upload_2019-8-22_8-59-0.png

    Early morning wins on baccarat. Lovely dealer.
     

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