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Baccarat Bet Selection Options

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Junket King, Aug 4, 2019.

  1. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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  2. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    This shouldn't be hard for somebody that is an expert with numbers to fathom.
     
  3. JAMESBANKROLL009

    JAMESBANKROLL009 Member

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    You're too nice with me or too hard ... It's according to ...:D:D:D
     
  4. porky

    porky Member

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    First off bucking up against 200 player dominated shoes isn't amazing. Its variance. All the computer testing in the world guys on here talk about cant and wont cover the variances you can have in one or hundreds of shoes. That's why so many people lose every day. Simply put people can win with not very well thought out systems. Hell they can win for years but when the worm turns don't understand what happened. The best and worst thing that can happen to someone is winning they start to think they are a genius and cant be beaten. Well the cards don't know that. How many times has friend asked why baccarat? Only to start talking how their game is blackjack and how they won this ton of money once. Eye roll.

    Now as for mechanical bet selections. I got into this with the guy that called himself a trender. What it comes down to is in certain circumstances you throw the ball up and hope to score. Sorry that is mechanical.

    So really there is no non mechanical bet selection but how you play it.

    You can track more than one and use those simple trending tools which are mechanical and I hate to say this put up pretty good strike rate numbers.

    For those that don't understand the truth tables its simple. PP what's the next decision going to be? P or B yes either. Its going to be that way all day long. What will you see more than anything in the long run. PBB, BBP, BPB, or PBP. Why? Its a 50=50 game. The one two will be the most because every streak ends with a 2-1 and singles to runs will try to balance out.

    Lastly books read since the 80s? Well at some point I think if you win at this game you stop listening to experts. Someone I know got their degree going to two major universities here in the states. We had discussed certain aspects of gambling I was doing at the time with some success. The first college professor, remember from a major state school, had studied all about this particular subject and others in gambling. He was their top math guy. And every thing I talked about was impossible and he proved it with math in one of his lectures. So I got told how wrong I was and it was just dumb luck.. OK I'm good with that...Didn't care.... Now when the degree got finished at another state school in a different state by the way. Its math professor covered the exact same gambling theories. Guess what Now I was told that "you know what this Professor stated not only were you right in his lecture, but proved beyond a doubt with math that you are." Two Professors, Two different STATE schools.. Someone stating anything should be well examined before you jump.

    Best advice EVER....Test it on your kitchen table first.....Secondly be aware of what you are seeing at the casino....Not what your told you should be seeing.....
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2019
  5. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Really glad I read that coming from somebody else, complacency can pose a serious risk to your bankroll. It does concern me despite my experience. We need more of this from others, it helps reinforce discipline and composure for everybody.

    Another powerful reminder, I've fell into that trap many times as I've wound up my bet amount. Working off the odds, how the hell did a shoe once produce mathematically probability of 2,097,152 to 1 and beat me?

    Sounds like a solid argument for the bet selection OLD, which we make makes perfect sense.

    Great post..
     
    LimestoneCowboy likes this.
  6. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Yes everything looks good until it breaks down. There's only 2 ways to win this game. Either win more hands than you lose or win more big bets then the small bets.

    Ignoring the former we only have 2 choices when it comes to bet selection. Continue using larger and larger bets to overcome losses or to be able to predict losses in a row.

    Ignoring the former this thread is an exercise in futility wthout finding success in the latter.

    Therefore it is my opinion that it matters little what bet selection is used. It comes once again down to a guessing and betting game.

    Furthermore, Wasn't this search exhausted 20 years ago?
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  7. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    The concept Pattern Capturing presented by Sam Redman, using Templates which is the reverse of that, "Pattern Avoidance" have never been discussed in the 15 years I've been around, which is not surprising as I'm their creator.
     
    Terry Plumb likes this.

  8. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    And that is why I come to conclude that betting bankers only is the way to go. For years I did well with a style ya could call trending but that was "guessing" and never won more bets than I lost. Betting banks only ain't guessing as you allow the result in the shoe to come to you, and yer gonna win more bets than ya lose, hey hey.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  9. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Well-Known Member

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    I’m headed to AC August 17 for my bday

    My main game for this trip will be craps.

    However I might do what I did last time on mini baccarat, where I won $1,000, following the bets of the Asian players with the stacks of chips. I mean no disrespect by this. There was an Asian man with stacks of chips, I followed every bet he made and couldn’t lose. The next morning he was still playing. So my bet selection next weekend will be what the others are doing :)
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2019
    soxfan likes this.
  10. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Not in the short term in a real B&M casino, it could go either way. I've played P Dom shoes all night in my old joint, used to wipe out all the Asian players, it happened so frequently, we used to call it Punto Monday. The advantage of Bank over the Player is so miniscule, once you factor in the 5% jig, it is superfluous.
     
  11. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    I gotta disagree with ya on this one. Often times the difference between win and lose boil down to an extra win or two per shoe. And my testing showed that betting players only was a dud that tanked quick while betting bankers only captured consistent profits. And I take a long term view and don't think that being able to win thousands more bet than lose is superfluous at all, hey hey.
     
  12. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    There was this Asian player at Sky City Auckland, who used to get very pissed on Red Wine, I can honestly say, I never saw him lose in all my time there. He used to shout out, "I always win, I never losey" in a drunken slur. He was a decent bet sized player as well, I never followed him like, maybe I should have, to the parking lot perhaps LOL.

    Hey, when you see an Asian player with a load of chips in front of him, maybe ask what his buyin was first LOL.
     
  13. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    It will all hinge on the sequence of the hands, for sure you can get a shoe with more Banco's than Punto's, but 2 long Player streaks surrounded by a load of single bankers, ain't gonna do you any favours. I look forward to a trip report when you put this into action.
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2019
  14. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    Yeah I know that by rigidly betting banks only yer gonna take a beatin on player dom shoe. But, my testing show bank bets only to be such a superior style that I can't ever envision makin a bet on players ever again. I know from experience that just an extra win can mean a difference between capturing a parlay, clearing a labby string or fib progression, and busting a progression. So, I'm willing to get clipped on the player dom shoe in the short term knowing that in a long run it is to my benefit to bet banks only. Like any other style ya gotta have the balls and bankroll to see a thing through. I'm gonna play live soon after I figure the best, most efficient progression/mm style to use with it, hey hey.
     
    Joey Torres likes this.

  15. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Member

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    Hey Soxfan,

    In your testing, do you bet banker every hand or do you stop after a no. of losses and restart after a virtual win. I think this will avoid prolong losses on player domination shoes.
     
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  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Actually it would ;)
     
  17. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    For testings purpose I want to keep it simple and just bet bankers only straight through. But you could make a coupla tweaks to maybe make it a bit less volatile, hey hey.
     
    Joey Torres likes this.
  18. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Discussion is one thing. Is there evidence of reducing LIAR?
     
  19. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Somebody a few years back tested a few of the bet options that have been mentioned in this thread, as well as a few more options, against both sets of Zumma data and additional data.

    The expected win ratio, the LIAR's were all within expectation. Wherever your nemesis is 20% or 14% of any given streak of 3, or 16% of any given streak of 4, didn't matter. Bank side won as expected, ditto the Player side, LIARs as expected. No advantage anywhere.

    The reason for these disappointing figures as the WoO once pointed out, the odds of winning vs losing is entirely based on the number of bets placed, not if and when you make them; 8/1, 16/1, 32/1

    Also those Truth Tables I've posted also show no matter what the bet selection everything resolves to a 50-50 state (minor exception bet B only due to card drawing rules, but 5% jig thwarts any advantage). So when you test anything against 1000's of shoes as in this case, you should therefore expect to get closer to the mathematical norm. I've deduced over the years, there exists three aspects which you can control in the game of Baccarat.

    1-) How much you bet, extreme LIAR's should be rare events.
    2-) You can define exactly what you are willing to lose against.
    3-) Yourself.

    It is because of these test results, I decided not to waste his time testing 7Col-ABR (which wouldn't be an easy task). Because my gut feel, the end results would adhere to expectation, Mathematically it has to. In truth nobody needs to test anything period. All one has to do, is run it against the appropriate set of Truth Tables which I posted in another thread.

    No matter what it is, the end result will be 50-50, it is not mathematically possibly for any exceptions to exist. Therefore it is safe to assume LIAR will also follow the expected norm'. Kind of reconfirms, that this is entirely a betting "money" game. The fewer bets placed in a shoe personally I think will give the player more of a fighting chance but not in the long term, one has to simply compare 7Col-ABR v's DBL.

    Nice question BTW and I've given an honest response.
     
    Terry Plumb and JAMESBANKROLL009 like this.
  20. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    We had that 7 column thing that seemed to produce less LIAR then expected. 1100 bets and a 52% win rate but I wonder how that stacks up to the math which produced the method? My guess is the math EV was greater than what that sampl6 produced. You follow what I'm asking here?

    Kudos to you for figuring out the Nemesis of that 7 column ABR. Knowing the nemesis a necessary item for success. But the column selections pretty difficult to follow the Nemesis as you're playing. Probably a lot simpler to choose another selection.

    The idea that betting less hands can achieve greater success always baffles me. I get that playing a lot of hands can be confusing and in that sense can be detrimental but other than that I don't see where it makes a difference. If you're going to sit and wait for something to occur before starting you basically just betting the trend or the bias. Which is okay but then you're getting away from any kind of fixed placement. That's why I start from the beginning with a fixed placement. I know right away what may portend my nemesis and if something occurs I can take evasive action quickly. On the other hand if that doesn't occur I can just go along and play completely mechanical. That happens often enough. And of course in the meantime you can make small adjustments from the mechanical that may fit the shoe at hand. for instance if there is nothing longer than three on a side you may sit out the next time it goes 3. Stuff like that. But frankly I don't find that helpful over the long run. Just as often you make some adjustment and it works against you.
     

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