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Baccarat Bet Selection Options

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Junket King, Aug 4, 2019.

  1. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    It's not the nemesis, rather a solution after the event, I'll shoot it across when I have spare time

    Maybe it's exposure.

    The reason why I think the ABR method will resolve to the norm, is because it is geared to win within a tight series of bets, so once you factor in losing bets before you achieve the win, everything will balance out considering actual bets placed. Don't know why, but it did seem to control the LIAR, as my very small test data showed.

    90 Shoes totals
    W = 124 L = 108 = 53.4%

    2 LIAR = 31
    3 LIAR = 17
    4 LIAR = 8
    5 LIAR = 1
    6 LIAR = 0

    No point testing further, I'm already using it. No other bet option I've ever tested returned LIAR results like that. I've used it live for some time now, as with everything, there are some horrendous shoes out there, however I'm generally pleased with its overall performance, it does require a secondary bet option, that doesn't get in it's way!
     
  2. JAMESBANKROLL009

    JAMESBANKROLL009 Member

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    interesting statistics...

    124 W + 108 L = 232 Bets/90 shoes = 2,58 Bets per shoe.

    2 LIAR = 31*2=62
    3 LIAR = 17*3=51
    4 LIAR = 8*4=32
    5 LIAR = 1*5=5
    6 LIAR = 0

    62+51+32+5=150L

    i think there is a mistake somewhere 150L vs 108L :eek::eek::eek:
     
  3. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    ..
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2019
  4. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Cheers for pointing that out, I've just rechecked visually and spotted mistakes, as well as skipping a batch using Excel's sum feature. Very much in a hurry when I originally went threw it

    The corrected figures are:

    90 Shoes totals
    W = 257 L = 233 Average bets per shoe 5.44. 52.4%

    2 LIAR = 30
    3 LIAR = 17
    4 LIAR = 8
    5 LIAR = 1
    6 LIAR = 0

    This was in its purest form. Due to lack of betting opportunities, I move slightly earlier, plus have other things going on.

    The premise behind this, was not so much the win %, rather controlling LIAR's to something manageable for a decent neg progression, eliminating the damaging +8Liar scenarios, I would like to think this has gone some way to achieving this.

    Thanks again, glad to see somebody was awake, even if I wasn't :D
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2019
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  5. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Re-addressing a few of the mechanical bet options mentioned in this thread, I did mentioned I'll post how to make these more solid.

    Notably,

    Triple Zig-Zag, 3Col-LCD and 3Col-OLCD.

    Streaks of 3 have a frequency expectation of 12.5%, even losing to 33% or 20% of any occurrence of a 3 streak, things can still get real ugly. We've all seen those shoes that have an abundance of 3 streaks right!

    How do we make these options more robust?

    Streaks of 4.. Frequency expectation 6.25%, so replace all the above options with;

    Quad Zig-Zag, 4Col-LCD or 4Col-OLCD. Real simple.

    We've all seen 4 x 4 back to back streaks, yet there is only a 0.125% chance you'll hit them wrong, vast majority of shoes, you don't see them.

    There is a down-side however, for any column fail, you have to wear 1 extra losing bet.


    and I have taken all these options to the tables
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2019
  6. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Having just played the P Dom shoe I posted in the live shoe thread. Decided to share something for the 'thinker's to contemplate over (some will get it, others it will sail over their heads). It dawned on me while playing out that shoe.

    We are dealing with a game of independent non-correlated trials in the game of Baccarat.

    In a 4 hand sample there are 16 possible outcomes. What are the odds/chances/probability (however you wish call it), of the same 4 hand sequence out of a possible 16, occurring 3 times within 7 trials?

    Obviously anything can happen in a game of random outcomes, so let's say that rare event does actually occur. That would lead to; what are the odds of 3 of the same 5 hand sample repeating 3 times within 7 trials given there are 32 possible outcomes!!!!

    Backing up slightly and consider pairs, of which there are 4 possible combinations, in 7 trials, what are the chances of picking 4 or 5 of the same pair, to obvious exclusion of other pairs. Not as strong as above, but nevertheless unlikely I would suggest.

    For those that get it, I'm beginning to lean towards (not yet implemented), it is pointless playing entire shoes. In the first 35 hands you usually can off-set Columns and Rows. After the 35th hand, generally you are playing Columns only (no-offset in a worst case scenario). Unless you have included additional bet options.

    Sure you can continue if you have unresolved Rows, were the probability increases, such like; chances of picking the same balls out of a bag of 256 balls twice within 8 trials, or the same ball out of a bag of 512 balls twice in 9 trials. While accepting every outcome is a 50-50 event and past results mean nothing.

    Like I say, the real value is to be found i the first 35 hands IMO, unless as often endure with online play, a monster streak within between hands 14~21 then you're committed to the the entire shoe. For those that caught my ABR bet option, something to ponder ;)

    To those that didn't, apologies if this post is meaningless.
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2019
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  7. JAMESBANKROLL009

    JAMESBANKROLL009 Member

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    To reduce risk, the second, out of five, landing spot is used for a virtual loss... Less betting opportunities but now you must win once within a series of 3 bets. ;)
     
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  8. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    I didn't do that way, suffice to say 3 streaks are simply too prevalent, whether you choose to lose against to 20%, 14% or even 11% you are still guaranteed to get hit.

    After posting the above
    After going back online realised it is more likely you will encounter a loss betting the third column than grabbing a win, based on the Birthday Paradox syndrome. You have to apply certain criteria before betting the third column in terms of number of potential bets.
     
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  9. Ravinderchawla

    Ravinderchawla New Member

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    Hi, Jk, u mentioned Quad zigzag, will be better option of bet selection, than triple zigzag, but with a risk of 1 extra losing bet, Can u suggest, an ideal MM, thanks
     
  10. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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  11. gr8player

    gr8player New Member

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    Hello, Soxster, been a long time; I trust all is well with you, my friend.

    Listen, before you're "gonna play live soon", I'd like to offer up a couple of suggestions that just might serve to improve your results with this "Banker only" betting plan.

    Please bear in mind, I don't play the Banker-side exclusively, so I'm not here to endorse this style of play; rather, I'm looking to assist you to improve upon it. Here's how I would approach it:

    I'd play it only with a "gap allowance" in mind. What is a "gap allowance"? Basically, it's the number of bets that you're willing to "forfeit", or "lose to" whilst you're awaiting to pick up some wins. Obviously, the lower number your "gap allowance" is, the better. The better for both your bankroll and your nerves (read: psyche).

    Look, Soxster, I'm a trender....have been for years and years. That said, my absolute favorite trend is my "dominations", where one side of an even-money proposition is simply getting the better of the opposing side. I track 2 separate and distinct results and await an impending "domination" on either one. And what triggers my "dom" play?: my "gap allowances".

    Obviously, the very best gap allowance number is 1. So, I'd prefer to see something like: BBB P BB P B P BBB....See where the Player's side is only "singling"...no Player repeats...see that? That's the ideal "dom"-play situation. But it could also occur thusly: PP BB PP BBB PP BB....or even: PP BB PP B PP BB PP B. In these cases, my "gap allowance" is not 1, it's been moved up to 2. Generally, I'd only move it up to 2 for the following reasons: A.) The Player side's optimal streak number has been limited to 2; and B.) The shoe appears streaky, and I'd prefer to be on any impending "break-out" streak as early as possible.

    The advantage of my "dom" play is the following: While losing some "feeler" bets here and there on those times when the dom, even when triggered, simply doesn't materialize, I always know that when they DO materialize, I'm about to win a series of bets. Might be interspersed with one or two losing bets, but I'll be cashing in on those doms as long as they last. My philosophy is now and has always been that methods that are prone to produce "winning clusters" are paramount to getting the better of this game, because those winning clusters can be bet in such a way that makes that person the "toughest out" for any casino.

    So, Soxster, if you are insisting on your "Bank-only" play (and, might I add, there's nothing wrong with betting the side that's proven to win more often...darn that commish, tho), I'd try to avoid those shoes (or portions thereof) that are heavy "Player-populated". And my "gap allowance" methodology is geared just for that....to limit you're bucking up against (read: betting into) into any P-streaks.

    Here's hoping this advice serves you well, Soxster, as I always wish you and all the very best of it.
     
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  12. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    So now you know why I said that gr8player knows how to win. He has always demonstrated a capacity to observe the current conditions. He has tactics that favor the strong side to his advantage. So that is one more person that can see the strong side and act on it.
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2019
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  13. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Maybe so maybe not, shame he dropped $250k into the casino coffers and had to post so many Walter Mitty tales seeking attention for a decade at the Glen.

    Just another waffler as far as I'm concerned, never having posted a single shoe, not really explaining anything, all smoke and mirrors, but he is polite LOL

    My friend, your friend, your superior.
     
  14. gr8player

    gr8player New Member

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    Thanks for your poignant response, Gizmo.

    It must be said, however, that, unfortunately, the game is not as easy as just reeling in dominations. Oh how I wish it were.

    It is all too common to come across shoes that are rather small-streak/chop; that's why I also play a O vs T dom game as well. And, of course, at times there simply isn't much happening (read: continuance) in the way of any dom, and it is at those times where your true mettle is tested.

    And so it takes a good amount of both patience and discipline to play this way. Just know, my friend, that all that separates the amateurs and wannabes from the real pros at this game is that ability to await their correct table conditions BEFORE placing a bet.

    I hope you're feeling well, Gizmo. Take care.
     
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  15. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Such an antiquated way of approaching the game, sitting on your hands while for a Dom, LOL

    At least other folk can admire your pullover while you sit there. .

    Haha, tell us about the time you were approached to write a book Roberta,

    hey black & low chappie, care to report this also, while you sit there posting nuthin' at all <GRIN>

    LOL

    Capture TIE.JPG
     
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  16. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    "Antiquated" ?? Why is waiting for a particular condition antiquated?

    And what's the tie insert supposed to prove? I don't get it.
     
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  17. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Self explanatory and for Walter's benefit (more civilised over here BTW, we get paid 9-1 for the egalite)

    I agree, there are those that travel to Asia and down-under funded by the game, also along the way and those that frit between NY and AC.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2019 at 12:00 AM
  18. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    And still don't get what you're trying to say here.
     
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  19. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Just wishing to stake my claim, not to be mistaken for an amateur!!! I do realise it was Roberta's way of making one of his snide comments which he simply loves to throw in whether he can, something for the rocking chair "black and low" crank to like I suppose..

    Hey Walter, how about you start your own thread for this kind of antiquated bet options, this is advanced stuff I'm sharing here, not some hocus-pocus placing emphasis were non-exist bullshit. If it did, everybody would be super rich, even you!! Oh yeah only you can pull off the magic guess-work, haha.


    BTW Walter - just a heads up, if you start your own topic here, unlike the WoV forum, where you were given the ultimatum to vacate or be 86's, you won't be able to rate your own threads 5 stars. (yeah I know, wink wink) :D:D
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2019 at 1:06 AM
  20. Baccaritic

    Baccaritic Member

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    What I see is 2,3,4,5,6+ liar accumlate 148 losses of the 233 total. Leaving 85 single losses. Now, 30, 17, 8 looks exactly like it should. 5 liar is only 1 where you would expect it to be 4. It's kind of a small sample size and the larger liar/wiar streaks don't level off with so few decisions. But the expected number of 1 liar is closer to 60. At 85, that's a pretty big deviation.

    Total number of losing streaks is 56, total number of single losses is 85. That's a pretty strong positive expectation of 29. If you are confident with your sample size and bet selection, I would pay more attention to this area and build and MM for it specifically that siphons off more profit with less headache.
     
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