Baccarat Playing (and Winning) Baccarat Over The Long Term

in the first example I counted 34 losing streaks that were at least 8 in a row and higher.
in the second example I counted 15 losing streaks that were 8 and higher, less then half.
all happened within the same 300 shoes.

 

You want me to send you 300 more shoes? Live 8 deck shuffle master. I can just as easily send you 500 or 1,000. LOL very easy to see the doubles and triples Etc in each one.

 

Unbelievable, Mr Oops had data available since the early 90's, the Zumma books have been freely available via Excel spreadsheets for decades. Been analysed to the nth degree. No prime bet opportunities, Baccarat is a game of NON-CORRELATED outcomes, you know what this means right?

Considering there are 1,180,591,620,717,410,000,000 possible shoe combinations (excluding ties) for an 70 hand game, you think you found an advantage?? How many shoes did you test? Don't worry about it.

Now here is the bonus bit, even if you had a soft copy of those 1.18059E+21 shoes, before you devote the next few decades of your life testing, looking for some advantage, or testing what you or indeed anybody else, invents, dreams about, plucks out of thin air, there is no need.

All you (and anybody else has to do is test against the Truth Tables which I posed here >>

https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/binary-truth-tables-baccarat-edition.14268/#post-72696

Now here is an extra bonus to save to (and anybody else) your precious time, there is no need to test, maybe to confirm for your own piece of mind?

Anything and everything, resolves to 50%, Birthday Paradox, Symmetrical v's Asymmetrical, literally everything, resolves to 50%

Regards your 300 shoes results, go and test against 30,000,000 shoes, 300,000,000,000,000 shoes.

 

Jimske, this is what you could do that would really help since you mention another 300+ shoe.
do what I did and lets compare results ,that way we can see if we get close to the same results or not.
if you get the oposite results , in other words,the GB2 (runs of 3 or more before you get doubles) are as long as Gb1, then you prove your case that all is random and no advantage whatsoever.
if not, and we see that the losing streaks of doubles are less, then we have something, right ?
I only let data speak for itself, the rest are just opinions which mean absolutely nothing if it cant be proven.
Cheers,

 

dont you think there is a relation between odds of something and lenght of losing streaks ?
if you play anything that has a 1 in 6 chance of winning, you know that your losing streaks will be longer right ?
you know the answer I think, you played long enough, so there we have it.
the 300,0000000000000000 shoes are completely unnecessary then, for this is basic math, that odds have a direct effect in winning and losing streaks.
have I said anything different then this ? not at all ! yet it seems that some disagree with that, hard to believe.
all I did was sharing data that I had.
if in another 300 shoe we still see a big difference in lenght of losing streaks ,and another,and another.....still just a coincidence ?
I dont think so.
just like this morning playing doubles just for fun, I had a run of 14 doubles in a row before I saw a triplet. will you ever see 14 triplets in a row before you see a group of four and more ?
good luck.
just like singles will come in mass which make those prime targets for positive progressions, it all simply means that every bet have their own place in a shoe and it is not just random.
I am not saying anything new, am I ?
Cheers,

 

No sorry. This is your little project. I will send you the shoes if you send me your email but that's all I'll do. LOL.

 

let me introduce you to GB3. (consecutive losing runs of the 3's before getting a hit).
to be clear so we are not mistaken of what the data shows.
you are betting for a group to be a triplet but it goes to 4+ .
example; PPPPBPBBPPPPPBBBBPBPBPPPPPPPPPBBPPBBPPPPPPBBBBBBBB. 6 losses of triplets right now, ok ?

300 shoes results;

6,5,6,5,7,5,5,6,5,5,8,5,6,5,5,7,8,5,7,5,5,6,5,7,6,7,9,7,6,5,5,5,5,11,5,5,5,5,5,6,7,6,5,4,10,8,11,6,6,6,5,5,9,6,5,6,5,5,6,5,5,7,7,5.

7 times we have lenghts of 8 or more.
compare to GB1.

coincidence ? will we ever get figures like, 10,9,9,11,12,10,9,11,9,9, in another 300 shoe ? show me.
Regards,

 

something I was just thinking.
is it possible that even know it is always 50/50 that the distribution of groups can be affected some how which would explain the difference in length of losing and winning streaks ?

 

Yes, also if you reverse that thought, as in "I've only got a 1 in 6 chance of losing, you should win more often", this would also be true, the bet selection would fail less often, however, because a negative progression would be required, any single failure would consume all prior successes.

Good observation, I sometimes dabble with such things, generally isolated patterns, behaviours don't continue, in fact they can't continue, they must break, when and how, who knows, it has proved costly on a few occasions chasing this kind of voodoo, because once you've taken a bite you're kinda of committed.

Debatable, dependable on what your doing exactly? Some will agree, others won't. Yes I think it's possible, in fact "AS" has been mathematically proven to be true. Also if everything resolves to a 50-50 state, consider this, there are 256 possible 8 hand combinations, what are the odds of getting one of those 8 hand patterns repeating directly after the same 8 hand pattern (don't go rushing to a gaming table and start betting the opposite of the last 8 hand pattern). You see where I'm coming from?? Just food for thought...

 

here is a thought about something you mentioned with the 8 hand pattern you describe above.
now is it a good play to go against 8 hands and pray they wont repeat ? some said it is, believe it or not. that again would have to be tested .
about the following ; 2 similar patterns of 4 hands, which equal to 8, and then play the pattern NOT to repeat ?
I would and have invested 15 units instead of 164 units (close to that).
but to go back to what the data shows. singles can go long , 12,15 of them in a row. positive progression is a great play.
going against it ? no way !
so my point is, and I think you would agree, some play call for Pos.Progression, and some for Neg. Progressions.
and by looking at data we know which ones they are.
the proof is right there . that is all that I wanted to share, and I think some players have already known that, but some have overlooked it.
anyone who doubt what I have written can check the figures themselves, I am not here with a Ego who just want to be right no matter what, that does not serve me at all, I am too old for that kind of stuff, and frankly it is tiring .
I just wanted to point out that in certain places it is worth betting Neg.progressions, and others Pos. progressions.
it should be good news for players to see that. it does take a lot of patience to play both I admit, but more then one play can be taken in the same session with documentation to overcome the boredom,lol.
singles can be attacked with Pos.Prog.
doubles and triplets with Neg,Prog.
one's becoming two's and more also with Pos.Prog, like 1,1,2,4,6......your choice.

Regards,

 

What you call GB2 is my 12th all time favorite trigger.

I don’t play it though.

If you were to play it on baccarat, I would only aim for a 1 unit per shoe win goal, if you try for more, you’ll have plenty of shoes with unresolved bets.

If you do use a Marty, I would recommend a 6 tier waiting for a virtual loss of 6 tiers.

I think you’d be safe and could play a long time like this. Risking 63 units, you could survive 1,000 shoes or more before busting. Unfortunately, waiting for that trigger would be brutally boring, and you’d probably only see it once a day. Out of a thousand shoes, you’d get less than 100 betting opportunities, and it’s still not a guarantee that you won’t bust. You’d need a massive bankroll to make the waiting game worth it, but I do think it’s possible.

But there are easier and faster and cheaper ways to win. I went through 8,000 real live game results last night and this morning and found 11 shoes with the highest bet being an 11 tier Marty. 1 with a 12. 3 that didn’t resolve with the highest unresolved losing bet being tier 7.

I don’t recommend a martingale for this, but am just responding to your idea about it.

 

Jae thanks for your feed back, I see that you would be playing that trigger "per shoe" I take it and that is why you would go for one unit only per shoe.
when I collected the data for GB2, I just went from shoe to shoe and just went without stopping. the data gives more opportunities for more bets or profit that way. the highest loss was 11 bets twice and have not seen it more since, so its pretty good I think.
now you mentioned your 11 tier Marty that you saw in 8000 real shoes. I am sure you have seen going to much more then that since you play full time. curious to know the record you hold on seen the longest ones, maybe one could use virtual losses to get a head start.
two more months of play and if my memory serves me right you would have a "full year" in august of data, great Job by the way.
something else to realize about the data I showed. those doubles are Players and Bankers mixed up together.
think if they were just on "banker" only ? the highest losses I would bet have to be even less then what is showing.
I would be okay with the 5% fee if it kept me in profit .
or they both, Player and Bankers could be played separately, and together all at the same time ?, giving more opport.

Regards,

 

You have to understand the Probability you are talking about. You are just telling everybody the imbalances that you found with 300 shoes and now you are SUSPECTING that is an exploitation. Congrats to you for finding the imbalance and now you can take advantage on it BUT win 1 and done like I said in my approach. Continue to find other imbalances and win 1 and done. Repeat. This is my method. My destiny. Now discover yours. You just have to decide HOW SUBSTANTIAL the imbalance has to be before you win that 1 unit. After you win, continue to chart EVERY imbalance that you found with YOUR records and see whether the OPPOSITE catches up. If it does, see what direction is next until you come to the point where you can rebet again for another unit.
Remember everything resolves to 50/50 except for B which has a .68% advantage but the 5% commish reduces it to -1.06% ODDS wise. What you are talking is PROBABILITY and not ODDS. REMEMBER THAT. Odds is Probability over Payout Ratio.

The TRUE probability is the result of ALL probabilities and ALL possibilities of all outcomes. Your records is like the Solar System mistakenly refered to as the UNIVERSE.

 

The sole reason for the failure of Martingale is NOT the Martingale BUT the bet selection method. The Martingale just play with probabilities. You win easier BUT lesser. Instead of 1 win to cover 1 loss, you need more win to cover 1 loss but you have PROBABILITY in winning enough to cover a loss. Therefore the Odds don't change. People just don't have the patience to grind back after a Martingale loss and deemed it as a failure.

 

but doesn't the odd of something dictates "the probabilties" even know they are 2 different things, like the the shell of a egg and the woke of a egg ? same office ?
but I get what you are saying and I like your thinking in the game. glad you bring it up though. here again we are talking of "never get married" to a play for too long, makes perfect sens to me.
the question is, when is it safe to "get back into the boat of same play again?"

 

The word Odds is mixed used with the word Probability. Most of the time people are talking about probability. Some would use the word chances. In gambling Odds is Probability over Payout Ratio. Your chances of winning in % and how the payout is. Therefore in a 5 step Marty, the Odds will be described as 96.9% of winning and 3.01 % of losing and you need 31 wins to cover a loss which makes the Odds 50/50 or EVEN which is the same as Flat Betting. That is why playing with a progression is regarded as a gambler's edge. An option given by the casinos with restrictions. Why not take the advantage?

 

Now you can derived a lot of approaches from your playing records with a progression couple with conservative wins. Never fall in love with any of them. If a new one pops up, use it. What needs for us to discussed and help one another is WAYS TO FIND IMBALANCES which is INFINITE. You have just contributed with your GB's. Find your OWN Holy Grail !!!

 

so to be clear odds dont change, always 50/50. but probabilities do change right ?
96.9 % of winning is the probability before you make that very first bet, but then it changes as bets are made, if I anderstand correctly. after you made 31 bets with no bust where is your probability now ? seems that players always get surprised when they lose to that 3.01 % as if it was bad luck, but really it isn,t. lol

 

Odds never change.Period. Probability changes AFTER a loss as the progression goes along. If you predetermined your 5 hands and use a 5 Marty, you have FULL 97% of winning at least one bet out of the five but AFTER you lose the 1st bet, your probability goes down to 94% then 87%, then 75% and lastly 50%. If you don't predetermined your bets, every bet is 50%. It is ONLY after you lose and looked back and say for that to happen, I only have a 3% chance of losing 5 bets in a row. Numbers are just numbers. How it can happen with real playing matters. To lose 5 in a row happens 1 out of 32.

 

The other half of your question is the one that I always try to relate to others which is Law Of Big Numbers. After you win 31 units from 5 Marty, you should experience 1 bust to make the Odds 50/50. If you continue winning with it that means there is an imbalance with LOA. That is why Hit & Run and charting without playing is the savior. That is the reason why having probability still losses because of LOA to even out things.LOA works very well for the House because the House can get the imbalance from MASS gambling where bets are made on both sides. You will see people winning with a long Martingale for months and gave everything back after a couple of busts because they did not make an effort to avoid LOA. It's impossible to time LOA therefore by NOT playing is the solution. But you have to continue keeping track and play again when the Math part of things dictate you to do so. This is what I meant by PLAYING VERY CLOSELY TO THE ODDS and win REALISTICALLY.