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Blackjack Current feud with Qfit (Norman Wattenberger)

Discussion in 'Blackjack Forum' started by KewlJ, Feb 13, 2017.

  1. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Michael Bluejay,

    I was just referencing you in a post above. Your web page on the gambler's fallacy is very comprehensive. Well done!
     
    Michael Bluejay likes this.
  2. Michael Bluejay

    Michael Bluejay New Member

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    Thank you very much, Dr. SAA. When I first wrote the article I wasn't sure it would ever change anyone's mind, but more than one person has told me that it helped the light bulb come on for them. Of course those were people with open minds, not anti-math zealots. Those people don't care how much evidence you provide.

    A year ago I added the section at the bottom of the article about why a specific pattern of reds & blacks is just as likely as ten reds, based on a post I read on this very forum. I think I proved pretty conclusively that the forum post was wrong, but I don't think I changed the poster's mind.
     
  3. Parpaluck

    Parpaluck Member

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    Kokodrilo (Royalty-Name for Big-Time Gambler):

    The Lizard literally affirmed in his emails of 1998 that “tossing 200 heads in a row has the same chance as getting one heads”. In the following email, he amended to “how about 20 consecutive ‘heads’?”

    He also contradicts himself regarding gambling systems. He is against the systems (‘cuz all of them fail); but he publishes a book of… gambling systems”! Read again the page I referred to in post #198.

    Indeed, the probability p of an event is always the same; e.g. ‘heads’ = ½. But there are two other fundamental parameters of probability theory: the degree of certainty DC and number of trials N. The degree of certainty always increases with the increase in the number of trials N.

    Lizard and you had no clue before I made public the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG):

    • https://saliu.com/Saliu2.htm
    Probability, Degree of Certainty, Number of Trials.

    For you, it just happens to get 10, 20, 200 ‘heads’ in a row — regardless of number of trials. Again, the probability of ‘heads’ is always ½. But a streak of 10 consecutive ‘heads’ has a DC of 1 in 1024 tosses. The DC of 11 consecutive ‘heads’ is even lower; theoretically, there is no such a streak in 1024 flips.

    The grandiose probability software Streaks.exe calculates the degrees of certainty for streaks of various lengths and the necessary number of trials. Try to calculate the degree of certainty for 200 consecutive ‘heads’. It might take longer than the life of the Universe to perform the necessary number of coin tosses!

    And that’s the fallacy of “gambler’s fallacy”. You can get 200 consecutive ‘heads’ as a matter of fact; but you also get 200 consecutive ‘tails’ as a matter of fact. You can’t have it both ways! The player can also lose 200 consecutive blackjack hands; the player can also win 200 consecutive blackjack hands.

    • https://saliu.com/gamblers-fallacy.html
    The Demise of Gambler's Fallacy, Reversed Gambler's Fallacy.

    [​IMG]

    Ion Saliu
    Founder of Roulette Mathematics
    Founder of Theory of Streaks
    Founder of Mathematical Axiomaticism
    “A good man is an axiomatic man; an axiomatic man is a happy man. Be axiomatic!”
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2019
  4. Michael Bluejay

    Michael Bluejay New Member

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    Again, I don't think anybody believes that the Wizard actually said this. I suggest you post the entire quote, completely unedited, without ellipses, and with enough of the preceding sentences to show the context clearly.
     
  5. jbs

    jbs Active Member

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  6. Parpaluck

    Parpaluck Member

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    The New American Psycho, Don Schlesinger (aka jbs), attacks me in places I am not allowed to enter. I do kick his stinky rear end, but in places where he is allowed to post, including these GamblingForums. Here is a list showing what the decrepit coward is capable of –

    https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/rec.gambling.blackjack/ALKEZOXuqU4
    New American Psycho: Don Schlesinger of Blackjack Fame
    He may post there absolutely unimpeded. The cowardly psychotic can respond where I post, but he crawls in the dark like a venomous spider.

    https://www.gamblingforums.com/thre...of-websites-have-copyright-protections.14968/
    Norm, does owners of websites have copyright protections?

    https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/paranoia-runs-deep-in-‘the-asylum’-bjtf.14240/
    Paranoia Runs Deep in ‘The Asylum’ (BJTF)

    https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/explanation-needed.14927/
    Explanation needed

    https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/the-asylum-blackjacktheforum-bjtf.13432/
    The Asylum: BlackjackTheForum (BJTF)


    Let interested gamblers know who the real scammers and crooks are. Those who never gambled seriously, but have always encouraged gamblers via books, software, systems to spend their money. Norman Wattenberger and Don Schlesinger are two of the most notorious.

    Psychodon (aka Don Schlesinger), a blackjack “Hall of Famer”, states that doubling down results in more losing hands but winning more money!!! How is that for mathematics from a self-proclaimed “expert” blackjack mathematician??? In truth, double-down hands win around 60% of the time. That means more wins, 'cuz 60% > 50%.

    The decrepit Don Schlesinger has not entered a casino in decades. Probably he lost the shirt off his back with his “card counting systems”. He doesn’t even know what a shuffling machine is…

    Ion Saliu
    Founder of True Gambling Mathematics
     
  7. Parpaluck

    Parpaluck Member

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    • Violation of Rule #1: Be Respectful
    Michael “Vegetable” Bluejay:

    From your website
    “I've gone to Burning Man five times…”
    • Now, that sez a lot about you and Lizard of Odds! How many “gambling tips” has God gifted you with by talking with Him over the phone at Burning Man?

    My take on Lizard of Odds and Burning Man:
    • https://saliu.com/bbs/messages/204.html
    • Wizard of Odds, Lizard of Odds, Wizard of Vegas: Gambler's Fallacy, Mysticism, Schizophrenic Idiot Paid by Casinos.

    One serious mental problem with vegetarians: deficiency of vitamin B12. It is essential to proper brain functioning, but B12 can be found only in meat. I always advise the vegetarians to take B12 supplements in high dosages. Apparently, nobody gave you that piece of crucial advice.

    Now, about that statement made by Lizard of Odds in emails to yours truly in the year of grace 1998. He first stated that “tossing 200 heads in a row has the same chance as getting one heads”. In a subsequent email, he amended to: “How about 20 consecutive ‘heads’?”

    He should have stuck with the initial figure, as it was more consistent and honest. After all, the probability p is always the same! What he — you too — do not grasp is the fundamental concepts of degree of certainty DC and number of trials N.

    • The degree of certainty DC rises exponentially with the increase in the number of trials N while the probability p is always the same or constant.
    DC = 1 – (1 – p) ^ N
    • Simultaneously, the opposite event, the losing chance, decreases exponentially with an increase in the number of trials. That's the fundamental reason why the infamous gambler's fallacy is an obvious absurdity.


    I made public Lizard’s statements — and parts of his emails — beginning 1999. The Lizard has never denied his “200 heads” statement (what a huge hydra, isn’t it?)

    There was even a thread in Lizard’s own forums on this “200 heads” topic. My name was also on the subject line, plus Lizard’s name. Again, the Lizard did not deny the statements he made in his emails to yours truly in the year of grace 1998.

    The Lizard of Odds reacted only once — and that in another email to another gambling crook of the 1990s – 2000s. The krook’s name was Chip and eventually was convicted and sent to prison for unrelated charges. The Lizard expressed his regret for contacting me by email!

    Ion Saliu
    Founder of Roulette Mathematics
    Founder of Theory of Streaks
    Founder of Mathematical Axiomaticism
    “A good man is an axiomatic man; an axiomatic man is a happy man. Be axiomatic!”
     

  8. John Blerg

    John Blerg Well-Known Member 👹 Troll 👹

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    Parpaluck, there is another forum on the internet that is right up your ally, for sake of not getting infraction here i will not cite the name, but you would be valued there i am sure. you waste your time here with old timers that are drama queenies and control fuck freaks. in other words, if you do not praise those as the greatest you are stamped on, LOL!
     
  9. Michael Bluejay

    Michael Bluejay New Member

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    You keep repeating this without evidence. Evidence matters. You're making the bold claim that he believes something so ludicrous that likely no one on the whole planet believes it. Your evidence for this is merely "I said so". It's not compelling. I asked you repeatedly to post the entire statement you allege, completely unedited, without ellipses, and with enough of the preceding sentences to show the context clearly, and you keep sidestepping that request. It's painfully clear why. The statement you allege doesn't actually exist. I don't think anyone believes that the Wizard said something so ridiculous.
     
  10. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Parpaluck,

    Based on your calculations which is more likely to hit after ten consecutive head have been flipped in a row?

    1. Another head.
    2. Tails. If you say tails, how much more likely do you believe it is hit?
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2019
  11. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Parpaluck,

    Also, if you wouldn't mind could you show us the math behind your reasoning?
     
  12. Boz

    Boz Active Member

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    Can’t believe this lazy hippie showed up here. Trust me, he will be pushing his garbage website looking for hits. He is a closet Trump capitalist who pushes a beyond liberal agenda to make a dollar.

    He is just a bad dude who tries to come off as wanting to help but he is a stubborn, bitter guy.

    And he will next threaten the admin here just like Norm does.

    Never question him or risk facing his wrath of legal threats.
     
  13. Parpaluck

    Parpaluck Member

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    How many times do I have to repeat?

    • Probability p is always the same; it is a constant (i.e. it never changes).
    Repeat:
    • Probability p is always the same; it is a constant (i.e. it never changes).

    But:
    • The degree of certainty DC rises exponentially with the increase in the number of trials N while the probability p is always the same or constant.
    DC = 1 – (1 – p) ^ N
    • Simultaneously, the opposite event, the losing chance, decreases exponentially with an increase in the number of trials. That's the fundamental reason why the infamous gambler's fallacy is an obvious absurdity.

    This is the foundation of theory of streaks — the very foundation of gambling mathematics. It is not about the probability p of the next trial — it is about the number of like-streaks in a number of trials.

    Here is a report created by that grandiose piece of probability software known the world over as Streaks.exe. The game analyzed is blackjack. If you play blackjack, I mean, IF you really gamble in a real casino, you will notice very similar results. Just jot down your wins (W) and losses (L); ignore the pushes.

    Code:
    Copyright Ion Saliu. All rights reserved SALIU.COM/gambling-lottery-lotto/blackjack-report.htm
    
                         Streaks Report: Blackjack
                         Probability p = 41 / 91 = .451
                         Number of Trials N = 1000
    
    =============================================================================
      Streak Lengths       1     2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10  TOTAL
    =============================================================================
    Winning Streaks W:    136   61   28   12    6    3    1    1    0    0   453
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Losing Streaks  L:    112   61   34   19    10   6    3    2    1    1   554
    =============================================================================
    
    The longer the streak, the lower the number of appearances. The player should not expect 9 or 10 consecutive wins in 1000 hands. The dealer is expected to hit 10 consecutive wins (actually, player losses) in 1000 hands; sometimes even 11 consecutive losses for the player.

    Interesting to note: both 2-consecutives are the same for Win and Loss. There are 61 such streaks in 1000 sessions (approx. 6 in 100 hands).

    My old run-in with the Lizard was caused by his misunderstanding of degree of certainty DC and number of trials N. He simply had no clue about such concepts. He never denied his statements in his emails to yours truly. Publishing emails entirely does trigger legal threats in krooks. See the very topic of this thread.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2019
  14. Michael Bluejay

    Michael Bluejay New Member

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    (1)To my knowledge, the Wizard has never sued, or even threatened to sue, anybody. If you have evidence to the contrary, please post it.

    (2) Do you honestly, truly think that posting a few sentences from an email you received is legally actionable? If so, could you cite any legal precedent for this bizarre claim?

    (3) Do you honestly, truly think that the Wizard would actually file a lawsuit against you if you posted a few sentences from his email message from 21 years ago?

    You're basing your entire case about the Wizard on a partial sentence from an email from him from 21 years ago. It's not very compelling. Surely you could post three complete sentences, or do you truly believe that posting three complete sentences would cause you to be successfully sued by someone who's never sued or threatened to sue anyone?
     

  15. Parpaluck

    Parpaluck Member

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    Veggie:

    I.
    Who does your pic represent? You, like the one you imitate, Norman Wattenberger, love legal threats. The old-phart cuckoo did succeed to take my site offline because of complete emails I published.

    II.
    The Lizard of Odds did ban a member of his forums (KewlJ) because of revealing emails. Even now, if another member of WoV forums asks for the reinstatement of KewlJ he is “nuked” (i.e. banned) automatically.

    III.
    Norman Wattenberger has issued several legal threats leveled at the owner of these very GamblingForums on the grounds of copyright infringement. That includes publication of cuckoo’s emails and Lizard of Odds’ emails. When you are sick, you are sick you are sick — and you know it oh-so-well.

    IV.
    The Lizard of Odds has never — ever — denied the “200 consecutive ‘heads’” he delivered to me in two emails. My sentences reflect truthfully Lizard’s statements. His last statement changed the “probability problem” from “200 consecutives” to “how about 20 consecutives”. The Lizard should have published his own emails if my statements were wrong. There is a thread on his own WoV forums with the “200 consecutive heads” as the matter of heart. Lizard has never contested the “200 consecutive heads” in his own forum.

    V.
    A cult is a cult — you and Lizard of Odds attend the cult of “Burning Man”. Compulsive-obsessive behavior is the characteristic of cult affliction.

    VI.
    I always insist on my advice to vegetarians: Take a high dosage of vitamin B12. Most demented people belong, by far, to the vegetarian category. Vitamin B12 is essential to proper brain functioning. Unfortunately, B12 can be found only in meat, never in plants.

    VII.
    The Nevada Desert does fry one’s brain. No wonder they believe in the “200 consecutive heads” in a compulsive-obsessive fashion. You already filed another complaint with the administrator of this site… before I even published the complete version of this very post!

    From your website
    “I've gone to Burning Man five times…”
    • Now, that sez a lot about you and Lizard of Odds! How many “gambling tips” has God gifted you with by talking with Him over the phone at Burning Man?

    My take on Lizard of Odds and Burning Man:
    https://saliu.com/bbs/messages/204.html
    • Wizard of Odds, Lizard of Odds, Wizard of Vegas: Gambler's Fallacy, Mysticism, Schizophrenic Idiot Paid by Casinos.


    Code:
    Copyright Ion Saliu. All rights reserved SALIU.COM/gambling-lottery-lotto/blackjack-report.htm
    
                         Streaks Report: Blackjack
                         Probability p = 41 / 91 = .451
                         Number of Trials N = 1000
    
    =============================================================================
      Streak Lengths       1     2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10  TOTAL
    =============================================================================
    Winning Streaks W:    136   61   28   12    6    3    1    1    0    0   453
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Losing Streaks  L:    112   61   34   19    10   6    3    2    1    1   554
    =============================================================================
    
    The longer the streak, the lower the number of appearances. The player should not expect 9 or 10 consecutive wins in 1000 hands. The dealer is expected to hit 10 consecutive wins (actually, player losses) in 1000 hands; sometimes even 11 consecutive losses for the player. That's nowhere near "200 consecutive losses L... in a row!" But it is "close enuff" for Lizard and you...
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2019
  16. Parpaluck

    Parpaluck Member

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    December 6, 2019
    A monumental landmark has been reached: 25,000 (twenty-five thousand) views!

    To celebrate the event, we announce ahead of time the lifetime awards in the arts of blackjack.

    • The best blackjack player who never played the game: Norman Wattenberger.
    • The best blackjack player who never won a dime: Don Schlesinger.
     
  17. Parpaluck

    Parpaluck Member

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    • The worst blackjack player who won 200-consecutive-hands in a row: Michael Shackleford / Wizard of Odds / Lizard of Odds / Wizard of Vegas / etc.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     

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